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Israel are going to start WWIII

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Comments

  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,904 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    You really think Iran will try to nuke what most believe to be a nuclear power, especially over Hesbullah? Israel don’t like Iran, but they have never been anything close to an existential threat to Iran.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,007 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    Nah, Israel and Iran don't have a land border so its not going to be army vs army regardless of Iran having nukes or not. It will be drone/missile strikes vs air defences.



  • Posts: 6,597 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    These are fanatical people on both sides. Anyone who could concieve of the Sampson option cannot be trusted to behave rationally, and Iran is repleat with millennial fanatics.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,445 ✭✭✭thereiver


    I don't think iran wants to go war with Israel as it will also be at war with America and face multiple sanctions on its economy it does not want to risk end up like gaza with most of it's buildings. reduced to rubble

    It prefers to send weapons to houthi or Hezbollah eg attack by proxy

    Iran has not reached the point of actually producing nuclear missiles



  • Posts: 6,597 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    The technology to produce nuclear weapons is relatively easy for any reasonable sized economy. It's a matter of time.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,007 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    Iran doesnt want to go to war with israel, but at some point it has to act to deter the multiple israeli attacks on Iran. Its likely best to deter israel by arming proxies, but israel is clearly pushing for a direct war now because they hope to get USA to fight Iran for them.

    The question is if young people in the US who are already deeply disenchanted with the regime, would be prepared to continue being conscripted into an army where they were mere cannon fodder for israel. The US is increasingly unable to find volunteers for its armed forces as it is.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,727 ✭✭✭volchitsa


    LOL goalpost moving again. Did the 95% you claim were NOT Jewish prove this by DNA testing or is that different?

    ”I enjoy cigars, whisky and facing down totalitarians, so am I really Winston Churchill?” (JK Rowling)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,866 ✭✭✭Sudden Valley


    How can you have a war with a country that you are not geographically joined to?All israels wars have been with enjoining countries. They can't do what they are doing to Gaza and Lebanon. Sure they can bomb but without boots on the ground it's hard to see anything more than a ceasefire being agreed. There is no way that the US would put boots on the ground in Iran either given their experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,727 ✭✭✭volchitsa


    The US doesn't have conscription - what are you on about??

    ”I enjoy cigars, whisky and facing down totalitarians, so am I really Winston Churchill?” (JK Rowling)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,007 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    A war with Iran would require it. No way anyone volunteers for it. They're even daydreaming about a draft in peacetime to try keep numbers up.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,727 ✭✭✭volchitsa


    Evidence for this? Or is it just this?

    image.png

    (And who is "they"? A draft in peace time will always be popular among a certain section of the society who hanker for inculcating old fashioned values into today's young people - but that's a very different thing to sending your own sons and daughters off against their will to die.)

    ”I enjoy cigars, whisky and facing down totalitarians, so am I really Winston Churchill?” (JK Rowling)



  • Posts: 6,597 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    The USS Liberty incident shows us that America has been historically very willing to be blackmailed into assisting Israel in it's strategic games. Has anything changed when America sees its biggest enemy in the Middle East as Iran ?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,007 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    What "this" are you referring to? That the US armed forces aren't hitting their recruitment targets? That is common knowledge.

    Or that the US would need conscription to field a large enough army to cross the Pacific and fight a war in Iran? That is common sense when voluntary recruitment would drop like a stone. Young people in the US don't want to die for israel.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,727 ✭✭✭volchitsa


    Which is why they and their parents are never going to accept a government reintroducing a draft for a foreign war. It's not going to happen.

    You think it would be necessary to wage a war against Iran, but you haven't shown that it would be.

    IMO the US would just change their methods, or rather develop them further: massive use of airstrikes using AI and drones, and very few boots on the ground, not human-owned ones anyway, and to hell with extra civilian casualties caused by that.

    And all the posters here claiming that Israel is deliberately raising civilian casualties would really have something to give out about then.

    ”I enjoy cigars, whisky and facing down totalitarians, so am I really Winston Churchill?” (JK Rowling)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,007 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    The US doesnt want to fight Iran. The US and Iran have zero reason to fight each other. Iran does not pose any strategic threat to the US. There are pro-israeli factions in the US who desperately want the US to attack Iran, but that is to serve israeli interests, not US ones.

    The US sees it's biggest enemy as China (stupidly, but it does). If anything should have become apparent over the past 4 years is that the US cannot simultaneously fight Russia, Iran, North Korea and China while defending the hundreds of vulnerable bases scattered across the world. It can't even supply Ukraine because its needs on every other frontier are so pressing. So Iran is a distraction for the US from what it (wrongly) considers to be its biggest enemy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,007 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    Yup, like I said young people in the US dont want to die for israel. So the US is likely not going to fight Iran for israel, as much as israel is trying to provoke one to force US to fight one for them.

    Sure, they might fire a few missiles or drones, but the US has dozens of vulnerable bases scattered around the middle east. They'll be saturated with Iranian drones and missiles very early on. It wont be some casualty free exercise for the US.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,727 ✭✭✭volchitsa


    Here's what you said:

    The question is if young people in the US who are already deeply disenchanted with the regime, would be prepared to continue being conscripted into an army where they were mere cannon fodder for israel. The US is increasingly unable to find volunteers for its armed forces as it is.

    But you've not shown any evidence that the US would need or want to put more than a very few boots on the ground.

    And "continue" is nonsense, since there is currently no conscription.

    And as for young people in the US being disenchanted with the regime - have you not seen what's been happening in Iran??

    ”I enjoy cigars, whisky and facing down totalitarians, so am I really Winston Churchill?” (JK Rowling)



  • Posts: 6,597 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I once interacted with a US diplomat from the Bush 2 era. They had a very interesting an compelling story to tell of how the Presidential office instructed a US gunship to cruise the territorial waters of Iran with the express intention of provoking an incident. She was one of the intermediaries between the Iranian and the Benghazi embassy asking what was the intent because they were going to have to bomb the **** out of it if it didn't withdraw with the obvious escalation potential this would cause.

    The Benghazi office knew nothing about this and said please don't do anything as this was some sort of rough provocation. This was about the time when the messages were starting to leak out from the pentagon about the plan to topple seven middle eastern regimes as a response to the 911 attacks.

    So, certain American factions have had it on their radar to get into a war with Iran for well over a decade at this stage - is that a general strategic objective of the USA or just the neo-con faction which was to the for at that time ? Who can tell, but it's certainly not a given that America would be reluctant to go all in on a Iran- Isreali conflict.

    Just look at the cluster of bases around the perimeter of Iran - possibly the biggest US military build up of the last half century. Things may have moved on since then but the USA has had a hard on for Iran since the fal ofte Shah and the storming of the American embassy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,007 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    The US - currently, in peace time, with no significant peer to per foe trying to kill them - has 40,000 "boots on the ground" in the middle east. All within reach of Iranian strikes in a conflict.

    40,000 is a lot of boots. And in the case of a major, ongoing war with Iran there will need to be a lot more than 40,000. Plus more to replace the dead and wounded. And they wont be able to borrow them from Europe, or Asia because they're committed to deterring Russia, North Korea and China. 20+ years ago, Americans volunteered to fight because they perceived the US had been attacked. But no one is going to volunteer to die in Iran for israel.

    Conscription would be necessary. But the US cant do conscription as it would lead to internal dissent and potential regime change.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,727 ✭✭✭volchitsa


    So when you said

    The question is if young people in the US … would be prepared to continue being conscripted into an army

    were you being stupid or dishonest?

    Nah don't bother answering. Either way, I'm bored with you.

    ”I enjoy cigars, whisky and facing down totalitarians, so am I really Winston Churchill?” (JK Rowling)



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,007 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    Definitely there is a pro-zionist/israel faction which has been pushing for US wars against any Arab neighbour of israel. They've managed to hit Iraq, Syria and Libya over the past two decades. And clearly they want to do the same to Iran as its seen as a dire threat to israel. It's more of a struggle now, because the US is exhausted from the GWOT.

    There are other factions in the US which are desperate to fight a conflict with China. They completely support israel of course, but they view any conflict with Iran as both unnecessary and a distraction from the real enemy - China. They're fighting for control of the wheel to direct US policy. I think this is why the US and Iran collaborated on the Iranian strikes on israel earlier this year. It was the pro-war with China faction overruling the pro-war with Iran faction.

    We can only hope that they manage to keep negating each other.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,727 ✭✭✭volchitsa


    IMO that depends on who gets elected.

    IMO a re-elected Trump will really go for it - he despises soldiers who get killed anyway, so he won't care about saving their lives.

    And he started some of this off anyway, with his decision to move the US embassy to Jerusalem (yes I know that in theory he was only making a longstanding position effective, but the rest of them, Republican and Dem alike had left it as it was for very good reason). But he'll want his legacy to be about Israel, and he thrives on division generally.

    Kamala OTOH will be a lot shakier on that. She's a lot less clear on Israel than Biden, who has been wellmeaning but ineffective. I don't really know what position a Harris presidency would take. Nothing new there though TBF, there's a lot that's not clear about her opinions.

    Basically though, she could end up at war through trying to seem decided. That might nearly be worse than a "Fight! Fight" style thing from Trump.

    ”I enjoy cigars, whisky and facing down totalitarians, so am I really Winston Churchill?” (JK Rowling)



  • Posts: 6,597 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Going to war with China in any form has got to be the stupidist idea ever dreamed up. Vietnam should be an education in what happens when a technologically advanced army comes up against a massive army and well equipped army. Eventually you run out of munitions and men. It's suicide and will undoutedly bring the collapse of the USA.



  • Posts: 6,597 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Harris will impose a ceasefire by pulling back on munition exports. Harris is going to win so Israel will go hell for leather to achieve their objectives before January. Things will undoubtedly esculate and I don't think that will be a positive for Israel.

    Each time they deploy Iron dome costs tens of millions and depletes their reserves to redeploy again. Drone and primitive rockets are cheap. Every time you launch a fresh barrage Israel gets more vulnerable and more israeli citizens die.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,007 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    Well, yeah agreed. The US is obsessed that it with 340 million people should be a hyperpower able to dominate China with 1.4 billion people. When they should be trying to trade and engage with them.

    But again, I think its unlikely the US will be landing a million man army onto the Chinese mainland. What it will try to do is get any of Taiwan, or the Philippines, or Vietnam etc to fight China for it. Then the US would arrive in to help the proxy resist the unprovoked Chinese aggression with sanctions, weapons and enforcing a naval blockade of China. China gets destroyed on the battlefield by magical weapons, internal dissent turns into the overthrow of the Chinese government and the breakup of the country into compliant puppets of the US. That is the dream.

    Reality is the proxy would get wreaked, and the world economy -including the US - would tank. But there are factions in the US that would prefer an outcome where the US dominates a wreaked world than one where it is just merely one of several very powerful countries in a developed world.

    The only positive is this faction views a war with Iran as a distraction, so they'll work to stop it.



  • Posts: 6,597 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Anything that involves Tiawan cripples the USA on day one, since they make almost none of their own hi-tech semiconductors.

    I see the logic of what you suggest - but frankly it's suicide however you slice it.

    America has been playing chess with china, and china has been playing GO.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,004 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    What goalposts are they? It is strange that the leadership team refuse to prove their ancestry, it is almost as if they are afriad to demonstrate that they are blow-ins from the west to the middle east



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,313 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Israel has always been a terrorist state

    Even when it was founded in 1948?



  • Posts: 6,597 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,313 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Do Palestinians have a right to exist, by extension?



This discussion has been closed.
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