The decline of FG?

The biggest drag on housebuilding is having enough workers & construction firms & planning

Picking numbers out of their ass like SF do is not enough to convince people is it

If Fine gael & FF get back into government and they're able to increase housing builds each year by the percentages to date every year,you'll have north of 300k extra houses by 2025,a nightmare for the 'lets get into govt so we can have a UI ref asap' party tbh isn't it

SF's approach will not work. They are relying on the private market to deliver houses, yet they are driving the only group with financial backing - institutional investors - out of the private market.

Under SF, house completions could fall as low as 25k in 2026, 2025 will look good no matter what because of the strong performance of the FF/FG government in increasing housing starts.

we ve no real clue what would happen to our housing sector with a sf government, but we must at least attempt to de-financialise it, this is ultimately what sf are trying with their proposals, as its clearly obvious the whole process has completely failed, as is the case in virtually all other countries that have tried this approach, which is most advanced economies at this stage.

the financialised approach clearly is hardwired for short term financial gains, which clearly isnt compatible with our long term needs in regards housing, but nobody truly knows how to de-financialise the process, all attempts would probably further destabilise the sector, but something must be tried, as we re clearly stuck in highly destructive feedback loops with our current approach….

but the reality is, this approach is now starting to catastrophically fail, by continuing this approach, we re actually effectively dooming younger generations, which in turn is dooming all of us, we re starting to see the negative effects now, with rapidly rising social dysfunctions including addiction problems, mental health issues and a rise in particular types of crimes, all related to growing social distress, all of which will have significant long term negative effects both socially and economically, as highly stressed people tend to be more absent from work, and experience more long term unemployment.

and add in an aging population on top of all of that, we ll very quickly start experience significant social and economic problems from all of the above, this is starting in other countries already such a japan.

if we remain as is, its very unlikely we ll be able to meet the needs of many of our citizens, including those that have greatly benefitted from financialisation, in particular current property owners, in particular as they retire, pension funds are not looking good due to this, and its very unlikely we ll be able to provide adequate care in old age either, due to all of the above growing pressures….

its true we have de-resourced our states ability to build, so the only way to try rectify this, is to try re-resource the states ability to, again, we have to be adults at some stage and accept our modern approaches have virtually completely failed, resulting in hyper inflation of markets, serious market dysfunction, and chronic supply problems, again, we re not the only country currently experiencing these issues, and the common denominator is financialisation…..

Nobody disagrees with the idea that the State has to build more.

What is concerning is the SF idea to turn off the private sector supply before the State had built up capacity. That is extremely dangerous.

I agree we should ramp up public home building, but thats something the current govt can do, in addition to encouraging the curent private investment.

Of course it's something they can do but they haven't done yet so I see no reason to believe they will if given another 5 years… Maybe you do?

The issue with the SF plan is that firstly, the public sector construction industry is way too small to build the number of homes SF are quoting. Meaning it will take years and significant tax payers money to get the resource levels right. During those barren years of barely any public home construction, the population continues to grow and the housing crisis gets worse, not better.

Again I make the argument that they would not be trying to improve public resources using FFG methods

Secondly, SF want to discourage the private investment funds that are delivering the majority of our homes today. If we push these funds out, home building will fall off a cliff.

Fake News: Their plan is for 50% of the homes to be privately built

SF would end up with very few public homes being built in the first few years because resource isnt there and private market exodus means private homes aren't being built either.

Again, see the 2nd and 3rd points I make above. Making fake statements like this is quite dangerous

Thats why the FFG approach delivers more homes overall, but there should be more investment in public construction resources, to help grow that number even further and beyond the 50k per year mark.

It delivers more homes than no approach, I'll grant you that one… We're currently looking at 35k homes this year, that plus another 15k next year. I hope they do it but I'd question it

That's highly unlikely to happen and given your lack of proof actually sounds like scaremongering. Scaremongering like when SF say 293 patients dying on trolleys in one hospital over a 4 year period, only that one is backed up below

https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2024/0522/1450585-trolleys-limerick/

That's highly unlikely. FFG prioritises developers, landlords and bankers, this cohort want low supply for high prices for high profit margins. But maybe I will be proven wrong

Agreed. There are good ones out there but few and far between they are. The last thing we want is a repeat of 2008

The other big thing which people also forget is that house prices don't exist in a vacuum. Anything that is going to cause a serious drop in nominal house prices is going to have a severe on the wider economy and peoples jobs/income. It's very easy to look back at 08-12 and remember how low house prices were but forget how hard it was to get a job. FF will tell you exactly how people reacted the last time house prices crashed.

Increasing supply will only moderate real house price increases but won't impact nominal house prices(which the media fixates on). Anyone who says they can reduce nominal house prices without tanking the economy isn't being honest/realistic.

Under the SF plan, you would end up with a two-tiered housing market.

The SF state land owned homes, that are worth half what the same house across the road in the private estate is worth.

As SF divert resources toward building their state land homes and social and affordable properties, the number of private homes beimg built would shrink, as the construction resource is diverted.

Providing the economy stays strong, the value of private homes would rise as supply decreases, moving private home ownership further away from the 20 and 30 somethings.

They did, but I am saying different about a potential FF/SF coalition. MM will have to be up first, and given the skeletons in the SF cupboard, their inability to get on with any other party North or South, their mad policies, and their obsession with a border poll, the coalition won't last long enough for MLMD to become Taoiseach.

tbf to ffg, they actually dont want to make things worse, but they dont have the ability to realise theres serious fundamental flaws in their thinking in regards how to approach our most critical of problems, i.e. theyre not intentionally trying to make things worse, but have no ability to realise they are….

…this dynamic isn gonna change anytime soon either, so we must prepare your kids, grand kids, nieces and nephews for an extremely unstable future…

i understand your viewpoint, and somewhat agree, but the reality is, ffg have effectively blocked up our electoral system with their confidence and supply agreements, and probably for some time to, i suspect these agreements will continue into the 30's and maybe 40's, depending on….

yes there will more than likely be a tidal shift at some point in time, but again, that may not be for some time, as the current only alternative, sf, simply dont have enough momentum within them to push through, as it stands, sf would more than likely need a significantly high voter turn out, a near majority, in order to make it impossible for ffg to be able to form another government, and that simply isnt going to happen anytime soon, and maybe never….

the electorate will indeed tire of these dynamics, but its clearly not gonna happen this decade, but maybe next, but by that stage critical entities such as housing, health care, infrastructure etc etc, will more than likely be in absolute tatters, and will more than likely require decades to resolve…..

yea this will more than likely what will eventually happen, but again, its not going to be this decade, and what will happen in that time will be devastating both socially and long term economically, its very disturbing to see that neither party can actual see this playing out in real time, being unable to read the room, being unable to pivot, both deeply locked into their ideological beliefs, and just simply ploughing on, neither have self reflective capacity to see any of this, very disturbing stuff….