The decline of FG?

I'll be the first to say I've always been skeptical of opinion polls but they do get close at election time

Will they? Or will they do the right thing and step aside from the problems they clearly can't fix?

While I completely disagree with their policies I do think there are decent men and women in FFG who will put their country first so I'm hoping for the right thing to be done. Certainly I think that an election in February when the hype of the budget is gone and the trolley crisis will be at peak is a sign of them not interested in leading the next dáil

I'll be the first to say I've always been skeptical of opinion polls but they do get close at election time

A month out from the GE last time a poll had FG at 28%, 2 months before Red C had them at 30%.
They got 20.9% of the vote in the actual election.

If they hold out til a February election I'll eat my hat, because if so they no longer want to be in Government or they're complete morons.

Harris held out the option that if the other party leaders came to him sooner than that then he would call it, absolving himself of any previous promises, seems Martin has done the same. The GP however front page article criticising the other two knowing they've nothing to lose cos they're going to get hammered either way.

The faux war has started, November it is.

Looking since last GE, probably little to no decline. In fact despite gross incompetence, obscene waste of public money, wasting a flood of tax money with practically nothing to show, abandoning the stance of fiscal prudence and law and order FG may even show an increase vs 2020 vote share.

The verdict on all that isn’t in yet.
They have been below the 2020 % and above it.
There’s a way to go yet.

I dont see SF delivering those homes. Its just a soundbite.

There's no public sector construction workforce to build the SF homes and they are also anti investment fund, despite the fact that most new build complexes are delivered via investment funds.

If you want more homes to be built, FFG are a better and safer bet. They are on track to hit 50k new homes per year by 2025, or 2026 at the latest.

We also have record housing commencements this year. Things are going in the right direction on housing.

More needs to be done, but we are scaling up. Loads of apartments going up across Dublin these last few years.

SF plan on their first day in office to cancel the FHS and other government schemes and to put up more obstacles to investment funds. If you believe that promise, it means that housing construction will collapse in 2025 and possibly not recover until 2027 as it takes up to a year to hire staff in the public sector, and their public sector construction company will need legislation which takes a year before we even get to that stage.

Sure, sure.

Martin ruled out FG/FF coalition in February 2020.

demand side stimulation policies such as first time buyers grants are well known to cause further price inflation, this has occurred here in ireland and other countries that have done so, australia etc, ffg policies will always default to this thinking, as this is the main basis of their economic ideologies, i.e. to protect primary asset markets and the owners of such assets, and its working….

…but again, there wont be an alternative government in ireland, and probably not for a long time to come, so such gainers have nothing to be worrying about, but their kids, grand kids, nieces and nephews are well screwed now at this stage, so its very short term thinking. this approach will ultimately fail for all in the long run though, so nothing to be worrying about, the elder needs of such gainers are well safe, i.e. pension funds, old age care needs etc, as things such as pension funds are well protected from unstable, unsustainable property markets, arent they!

Isn't going on about how a government chooses to spend a surplus as buying votes,a well worn tactic thats usually the last vestage of an opposition who know their numbe is up

It an observation on a current and ongoing tactic.
Had we not crisis and homelessness, children waiting on lists and a whole section of the population requiring cost of living packages, you could say there is a 'surplus'.
Certain demographics are being targeted others are being long fingered or ignored.
Call that for what it is.

Exactly. It is highly unlikley that the SF approach would deliver more homes by 2030, vs the current govt policy; which is already implemented, in full swing and is still accelerating.

So many changes are required to implement the SF policy that they would nearly be starting from scratch.

It's like a race between a car travelling at 100km/h and accelerating towards 120km/h vs the SF car that hasn't got into first gear yet.

I know which car my money would be on to win the race.

This is what matters.

If the goal is, as I have long said, power for power's sake, that will be found out inevitably.

Its possible to move towards 50k next year with the current approach, yes.

I dont see it being possible with the SF approach, no.

And it is quite possible FG will be in government on a further decline.

How long until that makes a coalition impossible if decline continues is the guessing game.
Part of one of FG's worst ever performances in a GE last time out was due to a gaff by 2 ministers (Varadkar and Charlie Flanagan) in the run up to the election havng been at 30% in the polls just a few months from the finish line.
I.E. It takes very little in the current climate for a party to get a hammering.

That's simple maths, if FFG - and their independent supporters - command 88 seats or more they will need to be part of the next govt, last time they had 81 which was the limit at the time so nobody else had a chance really