2024 Irish EV Sales

I was aware of your status and obviously it's the owners perogative to make such calls. Would think though, as the number of EVs increase, this is going to be a much more contentious IR issue in the future. Just like ecars/Lidl and the like introducing charges stopped locals hogging free chargers they didn't need, employers may have to consider charging for chargers to avoid employee friction and prioritise chargers for actual work purpose. No need to publicly ban phev owners from chargers if more expensive to charge at work that a decent domestic night rate.

So is this headline misleading?

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2024/0902/1467934-new-electric-vehicle-sales-down-over-25-so-far-this-year/

In terms of market share, it isn't quite so bad.

2023 Aug overall registrations 8261 of which 1782 were EV. EVs were 21.6% of overall.

2024 Aug overall registrations 7567 of which 1259 were EV. EVs were 16.8% of overall.

That's a 4.9% reduction in market share for registrations.

Edit: I had writen Jan-Aug. Corrected to say August only.

@derekreilly has made a fair point that 2023 numbers probably contained pent up post COVID demand. The long run rate is positive, albeit not at that rate we might have hoped for.

Grinding my gears the way it's always a negative spin and no counter point so I suppose both of us will remain frustrated

I’d say yes, it’s written to be sensational, a true independent article with no bias would use a larger sample size.

I mean, comparing this year to 2022, we're looking at a 20% increase in EV sales in absolute terms while the traditional diesel has shrunk.

Market share wise however, we're barely above that. The biggest draw away from EV sales at the moment is the massive influx of new model hybrids onto the market. Providing peoplevwith a "ah close enough alternative" to EVs for the time being.

Hybrids are gaining across the board, especially PHEVs. These are no longer compliance vehicles but often great cars offering real world ranges of up to 100km. They're a compelling argument for a lot of people. It becomes more clear when you realise that stats are a bit off, as cars are getting reported with the wrong fuel types. The PHEV and HEV market share is probably close to 35%.

Otherwise known as "sorry, you're right".

Look forward to seeing these tomorrow. I think there could be signs of increased EV interest.

(Referring to SIMI report for September. Post got moved into this thread.)

September new car registrations were down 10% (5000 cars registered), with EVs again outstripping the market and down 30%.

Tesla had a small delivery, about 250 cars, but by and large these September registration numbers are in the noise level when you account for fleet sales and garage registrations.

Here's a comparison of EV to All new Irl registrations from the SIMI data.

I've aggregated county data into zones according to some vague theory about characteristics, with the hope being to see if patterns of EV uptake is different in different kinds of location.

0.Dublin (all urban)
1.Urban Cork, Galway, Limerick (counties have a large portion in cities)
2.Commute Kildare, Louth, Meath, Wicklow (close to Dublin)
3.Central Carlow, Laois, Monaghan, Tipperary (close or between urban areas)
4.Semi Cavan, Kilkenny, Longford, Offaly, Waterford, Westmeath, Wexford (Not so central or urban (Waterford maybe should be in Urban))
5.Outer - Clare, Donegal, Kerry, Leitrim, Mayo, Roscommon, Sligo (somewhat more remote from urban centres)

In this first chart, only for Dublin and Commuter counties, it shows EV and overall numbers for all new car registrations in Ireland (not import). The EV and overall numbers for all new car registrations (not import) are shown. The EV numbers are multiplied by 5 to make them more easily comparable.

Note also, I’ve projected numbers for October based on the relative size of Sep/Oct over the previous 3 years and extrapolating forward from this Sep.

You can see the seasonal variations. Worth noting maybe that the EV market seems a bit stronger in the off-season. In Dublin, an upward trend in EVs seems to be continuing. In commuter counties, it's less so in the last year.

In next chart, in order to look at the relative changes in market share, the EV numbers are divided by the total for all cars to give percentage share of the market. Dublin is shown by dashed line. The large spikes in June and November are more related to the relative fall off of general car numbers vs the more steady EV numbers.
Commuter counties had a good EV share up to end of 2023 but fell back in 2024. Dublin fell back a bit but not by as much in 2024. Dublin seems to be leading an increase in August/September. To my eye, it looks like an improvement, in proportion to the overall market, and possibly in absolute terms.

At this point, the year on year or year to date numbers are not giving a clear picture. 2023 had an exceptionally strong first half and that is masking what has happened in the last couple of months. MightyMunster's chart shows the large bulge in Q2 2023, twice as big as it would under a more gradual growth picture.

I have a question: why are EV sales better in the off-season, not sinking as much as other types in May/Jun and Nov/Dec? One reason, and it applied in our case: we came to a point where we didn't feel confident about our current car and decided to switch. We didn't want to continue with another ICE car and it was a decision unrelated to car buying season. So I wonder if that low background steady rate is due to similar people deciding they can't put up with the ICE car any longer?

All well and good, all factually correct - however, the trend is your friend.

If you can tell me that next year is somehow going to be back on track, then yes this is just a blip and it’s the 2nd best year ever for EV sales and a positive thing.

non-EV sales are +6% this year while EVs are -27%, which suggests it’s not a market issue, it’s a specific EV issue - which we all know is the case.

So you’re not wrong, but it’s not a fair reflection of what the data actually means, irrespective of what it says.

I’m pro EV btw.

As an aside, my neighbour took delivery of her new Model 3 last week, and the insurance versus her 181 320d was “4-5 times”. I asked how that could be the case, and yes her old insurance was low at €400, but she was very much not expecting it. She said she’s never had an accident, and driving about 20 years on her own policy.

it’s a poll of one, but these things will snowball into lower sales if indeed cars like Tesla’s are as expensive to repair as they appear to be.

I’m just telling you what she said. Can’t imagine why she’d lie, and she seemed genuine in how she expressed her shock at the new premium. She’s not interested in cars necessarily, I think she just wanted an EV, so a Facebook page of Tesla people is the last place you’d find her.

in fairness she said the old premium was “€3-400”, so the Tesla might be 4x €300 = €1200.

it’s just a white rwd, but to an insurance company that’s a 290hp/400 tq fast vehicle will a few years of claims and repair costs to see - and claims and repair costs are high as we know.

It's like every M3 owner had a golf gti clubsport, or similar, to insure.