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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Comments

  • Posts: 14,768 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    And where would you put all the people who live in those properties? Tents in the fields?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,132 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    Without the need to perpetuate growth, the immigration that has caused the population on the island to jump so swiftly would not have happened. Thus, the people would not be here.

    I'm aware that this is a sensitive topic, but it's not one that can really be ignored anymore.



  • Posts: 14,768 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    If institutional investors were not investing in our property market, we wouldn’t need as many properties, does seem like an oxymoron. But I kinda get the point you are making, though I don’t wish to follow you down that rabbit hole on emigration. If you are happy to stay in 2012 with high unemployment and even though houses were cheap, people still couldn’t buy them, then that’s your prerogative, but if I am taking you up right and you are talking about MNC investment, and saying if it wasn’t there, we wouldn’t have so many workers, and need to many houses, then you are obviously too young to remember the last recession, or indeed the period up to the late 90’s, when unemployment was higher and the Irish had no choice but to emigrate for work.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,036 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Did someone here have data on what proportion of developments started because of investment funds providing the funding for building

    Most of the news stories are of them buying existing developments that had already been funded



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 781 ✭✭✭engineerws


    Wouldn't have bothered me one way or another back then as I'd no money 😅. The banks were saved to save wealthy people.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,132 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    I remember the last recession only too well; I can assure you. I think there's a balance to be struck between having a reasonably healthy economy with good levels of employment and what we have now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Most of those investors and institutions will not even be resident in Ireland or have any staff in Ireland… Before GFC banks provided finance for developers using a lot of the same investors money that they had deposited in the banks…All that has happened is that this all moved out of the banking industry and into the funds industry.

    It should also be noted this wasn’t something that Ireland implemented on its own but was international and majority of countries fully adopted with the exception of USA and their regional banks which came back to bite them last year when they started fail which wouldn’t have happened if they fully adopted like the EU.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,132 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    Yes this is true. It's not a uniquely Irish problem at all.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭Blut2


    On that exact note, the lead story in today's Irish Times: "Figures for year to April 2024 show more than 100,000 people immigrated to the State in three successive years".

    We're taking in 100k+ immigrants a year, every year, now it seems. And only building circa 35,000 homes a year - not even enough to house the new arrivals, nevermind replace existing stock, or make any dent in the housing crisis.

    The housing crisis is only going to get much worse while our population is growing at this rate. All the arguments at the margins of incentives, social housing vs private sector etc, pale in comparison to the runaway population growth one now.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/2024/08/27/immigration-to-ireland-hits-17-year-high-as-emigration-also-rises/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,036 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Thanks for clarifying that these institutional investors can avail of all the taxpayer spending required to ensure these apartments/homes exist without contributing anything in return

    Waiver from development levies, water connection, waste water

    Up to 130k grant per apartment built

    Transport infrastructure and maintainence.

    Education of the workers that can achieve the salaries required for the rent demanded

    Social welfare for the renters that can't afford rents charged

    This model of housing provision truly is the way forward for Ireland and beyond. How come noboby had been able to formulate such a genius solution in the past. It must be the proliferation of our best and brightest and wealthiest having governments in there pockets.

    We can all feel better now, go out and work confident that half our salary taken by the government is spent wisely for the greater good

    Well done all



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,132 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    This. I think everyone knew this all along, but the immigration factor has finally broken through the taboo of discussing it. With such enormous numbers entering the country yearly, there is no way for building to meet demand. Even if it could, the environmental cost cannot be ignored.

    Of course, this is a problem not unique to Ireland. We need only look to the UK to see much the same story.



  • Posts: 14,768 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    They are providing the finance, without which the projects they invest in would be considerably more difficult to finance, and therefore build.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,822 ✭✭✭✭kippy




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,036 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Please provide proof as to what extent your statement is accurate.

    How many units commenced directly as a result of investment funds providing finance for the project. The vast majority of what we are hearing are projects already started, built or 2nd hand, therefore funding pre existed

    Give us numbers please



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    where do you think any developer gets finance to build houses?



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    I don't believe developers providing new build housing are running on margins so thin they need the government to prop up demand.

    So I think the government should call their bluff, withdraw all the supports, and instead enforce a heavy tax on undeveloped zoned land and land with active planning permission.

    That will prompt much wailing and gnashing of teeth, but as far as I can see it's all scaremongering.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,853 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    We need to take emigration into account also. 69k people left the state in the 12 months to April 2024.

    All things considered, it looks like 100k population increase in 12 months for the State.

    I am not sure if IPAs are included in these stats. There are mixed answers to that question.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,917 ✭✭✭DataDude


    https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2024/0827/1466914-cso-earnings-and-labour-costs/#:~:text=Preliminary%20figures%20from%20the%20Central,the%20same%20time%20last%20year.


    With all the concerning news of late on both rent and house price increases it’s at least some consolation that wages are powering upward also. CSO published today

    Just had a look there and in the last 6 years (since 2018):

    Average wage increase: 30%
    Average house price increase: 37%
    Average rent increase (new tenancy only): 43%

    Can’t help but feel a lot of the dramatisation of things could be cooled if media presented things as:

    Real house prices have increased at an average rate of 1.1% annually since 2018 and average rents have increased at 2.1%.

    Instead we get upward red arrows and ‘PRICES EXCEED CELTIC TIGER PEAK. UP 8% this quarter’ from Irish Times. Trying to create a sense of panic it feels like.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,036 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Can someone justify an average hourly rate in the Finance and real estate sector of €50.10. The largest increase was the construction sector. Together with health the most unproductive sectors of the economy.

    As one poster suggested Finance are not allowed do there job, or can't be trusted do do there job or when they attempt to do there job they crash the entire economy and this is from the highest levels, not the foot soldiers

    The battle against inflation appears to be going well, no worries with overheating the economy and rents rising at double (quadruple in Limerick city) the rate of wages is all perfectly sustainable

    Meanwhile

    The numbers leaving for Australia doubled over the previous year which is interesting considering the strict entry requirements for that country. What could possibly be driving that I wonder



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,036 ✭✭✭Villa05


    I think the strike action is confined to commercial sites, residential is unaffected for now



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,917 ✭✭✭DataDude


    I don’t think it’s something that can or needs to be justified. Supply & demand. You can be sure their employers are paying them as little as the market will allow them to.

    In terms of the comment on inflation - yes the battle is largely over for now with a fairly high degree of confidence, evidenced by expectations of rate cuts across the world.

    On Irish competitiveness/overheating - not much of a concern as the level of wage inflation here is exactly in line with EU averages. Wages are merely catching up with prices in a lagged fashion as was widely predicted, restoring people’s purchasing power - this is a great (and necessary) thing.

    Not sure why people are going Australia. Must be for the extremely cheap houses they have over there.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,046 ✭✭✭MacronvFrugals


    Less than €6k per SQM, its not that bad, those houses are really nice and were built by one of the best builders in the country at that time Alexander Strain.

    I used to rent at Glencairn Gate in D18 and there was people paying this type of money to hear a perpetual 55-60 decibels of the M50, in my opinion, the Glasnevin house is better value considering it has a decent garden also.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭Blut2


    Taking emigration into account doesn't help the figures at all.

    Accounting for all of emigration, immigration, IPAS, and natural increase (births over deaths) our population increased by 181,000 last year[1]. That was the 5th highest of any country on the planet - and not per capita, overall. Its completely insane for a country our size.

    Theres absolutely no way our housing market, or construction industry, can keep pace with that. Thats approx 70,000 housing units a year being taken off the market just to house the new population.

    [1]https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/social-affairs/2024/06/10/european-commission-says-irish-population-rose-by-record-35-per-cent-last-year/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    you do realise that banking is only a subset of the finance industry. And funds another subset of the finance industry are providing finance for housing developments….so don’t know why you are saying finance aren’t allowed do their job.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    I don’t think it’s something that can or needs to be justified. Supply & demand. You can be sure their employers are paying them as little as the market will allow them to.

    I totally agree with you that if wages are simply a product of supply and demand in the market place that in itself is justification for the rates.

    Presumably this is the case in the finance sector, but it is does not appear to be the case in the construction sector.

    Builders are claiming that it is not viable to build an average 3 bed semi because there is no demand from buyers at the price required to sell it to make a profit - i.e the build costs are higher than the market will bear.

    A large chunk of that build cost is labour. One would expect the cost of that labour to fall if there is no demand for the product that labour is producing.

    Instead the largest increase has been in the construction sector.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,043 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    Finance are not allowed to do their job? sorry what now?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,853 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    AMECO are population estimates and I dont know how they arrive at their figures.

    The CSO has recorded pretty much the same level of growth over the past 2 years, April to April, of 100k per year. 80k migration increase and 20k natural increase.

    Either way, it puts us on a path to hit 6 million by 2030.

    Post edited by BlueSkyDreams on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,699 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    PAYE, PRSI and USC tax take going through the roof too as people move into higher bands.

    People aren't taking home 30% more; add in COL increases on top too.



  • Posts: 14,768 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Out of interest, what metric are you using to measure productivity of employees in the finance/health and construction industries?

    Post edited by [Deleted User] on


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,917 ✭✭✭DataDude


    PRSI is a fixed percentage so it doesn’t need to be indexed to keep pace with inflation. If you have a fixed 4% tax rate on all income. A 30% gross pay rise equates to a 30% net pay rise. Thats how the maths works.

    Income tax credits will be up c.20% after the next budget and income tax band cut off up c.25% so there has been a slight increase in effective income tax rates but it’s not massive.

    USC is slightly more complex. Likely reduced burden for lower income workers due to the rate reductions and indexation. Increased burden slightly for higher income workers due to non indexation of 70k band.

    Overall the tax burden on incomes has gone up slightly but not much, so net incomes will have also risen by pretty close to 30%.

    ‘Cost of living’ has gone up 21% since June 2018 - net wages have definitely substantially outpaced this.

    i.e. people on average have experienced a significant improvement in their net income relative to living costs and therefore have more disposable income (in real terms, so this increase is over and above the 30% increase in nominal terms they’d have experienced if col had been equal to wage inflation).

    It’s another example of how hyperbolic media reporting playing into the negative Irish psyche means people have no perception of economic reality.



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