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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,673 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Developers say average new build houses are not viable to build without government supports because the average buyer cannot afford to buy them at prices attractive enough for developers to build and sell.

    Hence government offer to take a 30% equity stake in the average house for the average buyer. This is just one example on top of HTB, and a myriad of other housing market interventions, both sales and rental, cumulatively costing the taxpayer billions every year.

    Part of the reasoning behind this is because government is banjaxed if builders make good on their implicit threats and simply say, ok if there are not enough supports to boost demand, we will stop building.

    So the government will throw however many billions are necessary to make sure the developers are happy with the prices being achieved.

    And that's how you get politicians seriously trying to argue that affordable 3 bed semis built on state land in Coolock should cost the guts of €500k.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,879 ✭✭✭Villa05


    You've not been paying attention

    Buyer of first/last resort



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,450 ✭✭✭herbalplants


    Remember the shills only get paid when you react to them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    here is the data

    as for visa being attached to a job….i think that is changing or has changed to avoid exploitation etc…..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,121 ✭✭✭RichardAnd




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,265 ✭✭✭amacca


    Yep...their incessant meddling has us where we are.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,879 ✭✭✭Villa05


    How the state can't get the lead out, get building and make money in such circumstances is baffling

    A SENIOR executive at telecoms firm, Verizon - which has announced a massive investment in Limerick - has warned “houses cannot keep up” with jobs being created in the city...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,579 ✭✭✭Roberto_gas


    Just did a scan of new builds in South Dublin and the prices are mental ! 725k for 3 bed terraced. 650k for 2 bed apartments. God save the country and people chasing new builds



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,879 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Developers margins have moved from circa 15% to the 20s since all these extra supports have been brought in over the last 18 months. That's a greater than 20% increase in profits

    State needs to activate small to medium sized developers to increase supply. The big players will continue to extort when competitive conditions are absent



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,450 ✭✭✭herbalplants


    Remember the shills only get paid when you react to them.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,225 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Really Interesting thing happened over the weekend. The lad in the small rental I have offered to paint it of I supplied the paint. So on Sunday morning when I was passing I dropped off the paint, he was working so I left myself in and dropped off the paint, rollers etc.

    Got a call yesterday evening from a women looking to rent it she was full sure your man had moved out. She hardly believed me when I said he was painting the Kitchen/sitting room for me. Just goes to show why no houses appear on daft for rent

    Post edited by Bass Reeves on

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,673 ✭✭✭hometruths


    And that's exactly why it is ridiculous to cite low levels of rental stock advertised on daft as evidence of landlords exiting the market in droves



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,879 ✭✭✭Villa05


    A few pages back @Dav010 was praising the government on there record on "job creation". The reality is that that government policies and inactions are a barrier to job creation. Public infrastructure, housing and energy being a drag on continued growth

    The I. T. sector is moving to a space where energy requirements are huge and Ireland risks being left behind.

    Children's hospital budget has gone well in excess of the cost of the dome over the chernobyl nuclear reactor to contain radiation which is has a life expectancy of 100 years.

    McWilliams has a good podcast today about public infrastructure and how competent EU countries deliver consistently within budget



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,879 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Our government will never fail in misdiagnosing a problem

    5000 euro tax credit to incentivise under 25's to stay in the country. God forbid we might build a few affordable homes so that these people could live here

    Many of these investment funds are using uber like algorithms to maximise rent, guess what they'll throw out if they hear customers are getting a 5000 tax credit

    It feels like that no spending in government is considered unless it inflates house prices and rents where most of the 'wealth" in the country lies



  • Posts: 14,708 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    You are being disingenuous, what I said was that they deserve credit for the recovery in this country since emerging from deep recession (unemployment >15% in 2012) , to full employment and many high paying jobs, despite a huge population increase during that period.

    Post edited by [Deleted User] on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,225 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Well I never cited it, certain poster were quoting daft rental numbers as there was no availability and comparing them to AirBnB availability. Many of us pointed put that this was due to word of mouth renting which is the way I rented out tge property even 3+ years ago.

    In LL leaving they were exiting last year however a bit of stability has come into the market at present. The tax relief and the unlikely hood of a SF led government has taken some of the fear away. However costs are rising and you are limited to rental.rises of 2% or less. The sector is teetering it will not take much to encourage to take there capital profit and exit.

    There is less talk of locking LL in and preventing them from selling there property than 18 months ago. Fr Liam Verry's scare mongering 12 months ago has proven unfounded.

    Few small LL will evict tenants unless they really have to. However legislation is not balanced at present. Cannot find the case but RTB fined a LL 5k over evicting tenants who were short term letting and not even living in the property

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,121 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    They're not misdiagnosing anything. They want to drive up property prices and rents, and they simply don't care about the consequences.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,879 ✭✭✭Villa05


    We need to be evolving, we can't live for ever on 2 decisions made in the 80's and 90's and have little to do with governments since the turn of the millenia synomonous with property boom and bust destroying the economy in the process

    The recovery was predominantly a product of a restoration of competitiveness following the crash coupled with those 2 decisions plus 0 interest rates



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,673 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Yep, fair enough, I didn't mean to infer you cited it.

    It was other posters citing daft.ie figures to cast doubt on the RTB figures showing increased numbers of private 'LL tenancies, which showed up the scaremongering about private Landlords fleeing the market for what it was.



  • Posts: 14,708 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    How very Trumpian.

    What has gone wrong is because of the current administration, what has gone right is despite the current administration.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,618 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    With the current "administration" poised to water down and defer the much needed residential zoned land tax (RZLT) I think Ireland Inc's success is very much in spite of their recent actions.

    Especially so when all and sundry are screaming about our infrastructural deficits and how they are driving away FDI - and their response is to water down one of the most important actions they could take to fix housing in this country.



  • Posts: 14,708 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    So you are going to ignore the economic recovery of this country over the last 12 years?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,298 ✭✭✭Blut2


    We put circa €7bn a year into the reserve funds last year because it was surplus to requirements. The current budget surplus is likely going to be closer to €9bn a year and rising.

    If labour capacity was actually available / prioritized towards housing the state could build 20,000+ social housing units a year with absolutely no financial issues. The problem isn't financial, its policy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,298 ✭✭✭Blut2


    I posted a specific breakdown of house building costs in 2023 that show some very obvious options.

    135k of a current 2023 460k new build house in Dublin goes on VAT, margin, finance costs and marketing combined. A state build instead of private sector removes all of that and reduces the cost by 29% by itself down to 325k. Thats the whole savings in cost accounted for with absolute zero decline in labour costs that you apparently think are so completely unavoidable.

    70k of that 325k also goes on cost of land for what its worth, which if property is built on already owned state lands (of which theres a lot) would also obviously be possible to be reduced in a lot of cases.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    We didn't put the money away because it was surplus to requirements. We put it away because it is fiscally sensible to not include extraordinary tax intakes in your current expenditure.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,160 ✭✭✭extra-ordinary_


    Yep, and the way things are going they're gonna kill the golden goose with their policies, and then tell us how wise they were squirrelling away all those surpluses.



  • Posts: 14,708 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Of course they are right to squirrel away that money, anyone following the US elections will know that some of Trumps policies are to reduce corporation tax even further than he already has in the US to force MNCs to move their headquarters back there. There was insight last week on the effect of even one MNC moving back there, never mind the effect of multiples doing that. If tax receipts drop, there would be a few on here lambasting the Government for not having a contingency fund.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,160 ✭✭✭extra-ordinary_


    Maybe investing those surpluses in infrastructure and services might actually lead to the betterment of the country regardless of Donald Trump.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    There is definitely a saving on margin and marketing but I’m not to sure on VAT because I would imagine that whatever public body is set up will not be tax exempt for vat purposes because it can be argued that they are in direct competition with the private sector…. Yes they could pass legislation to make it specifically exempt but then there is the question of whether that would be allowed under EU rules.

    As for finance cost that would still exist and be significant as to pay for the capital expenditure the government would need to issue debt which will impact credit ratings and increase the total cost of existing debt as a result.

    As for state land the majority of it will be owned by semi state companies and if they don’t sell it a fair value then they stop operating on a comercial basis which yet again would impact the bond market and make Irish debt more expensive to service.

    Just look at the UK and see what how the bond market reacted to the tories plans and you see the results of how the market would react to these changes.



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  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,673 ✭✭✭hometruths


    As for state land the majority of it will be owned by semi state companies and if they don’t sell it a fair value then they stop operating on a comercial basis which yet again would impact the bond market and make Irish debt more expensive to service.

    Just look at the UK and see what how the bond market reacted to the tories plans and you see the results of how the market would react to these changes.

    The Tories mini budget spooked bond markets because it consisted of £45bn of unfunded tax cuts with no analysis, the biggest tax cuts since 1972.

    Bond markets reacted because of the severe fiscal irresponsibility of the government in the UK.

    After all the recent talk of comparing like with like surely this comparison cannot fly.

    In this case, currently to provide social housing the government buys a proportion of private developments and pays market rates set by developers.

    It's very expensive and increasingly so. And it also makes houses for the private market very expensive and increasingly so.

    Alternatively the government could build houses on state owned land, pay a lower cost per unit, and remove itself from competing from private buyers.

    And you think this alternative is fiscal irresponsibility comparable with Liz Truss' mini budget that risks the bond market imploding?

    Struggling to see your logic here, what am I missing? TBH it just looks like more scaremongering.

    Post edited by hometruths on


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