Vice President Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump 2024

I think she showed she was Presidential during her DNC speech last week. If you watch earlier public speeches by Kamala (and there are not many), she has been a little stilted and faltering. It's almost as if she has visibly grown in confidence now that she knows she is centre stage.

There is a real danger for Trump that Harris will 'win' the debate. He keeps claiming she's an idiot and 'not very bright' etc….he's setting himself up for a big knockdown.

You're ascribing Irish reason to American perceptions.

They aren't very bright, as a rule, and so looking like the smart one and having a firm but soothing demeanor counts for a lot.

More than for policy actually. You'll notice between now and November, neither of them will really deal with policy in any substantial way. And thats the way Americans like it, as it brings them out in a sweat.

I very much doubt a large quantity of apathetic voters will be watching the debate.

We live in a world now where it will come down to a 10 second sound bite that will be shared 100s of millions of times on SM to try reach those voters.

”Apathetic”- yes I think you’re correct- but “swing” voters, yes.

Who knows the real statistics of how a presidential debate influences voters/ but the polls one week later should help tell the tale one way or another - let’s put it this way, if either candidate does sh01te at this debate for whatever reason, it will impact them negatively

Just as important to Harris is voters who are unlikely to vote, but would vote Democrat if pushed or vote anyone who shows interest in them.

Sky News went to a park last week in one of the Swing States, some interviewed didn't even know who was running.

The pertinent question though, is their enough time for the grass roots to mobilise and get them voting.

It's a coin toss at the moment who takes the White House, this is reflected in the betting exchanges.

Indeed- anyone who says X is a shoe in is talking nonsense- Trump may fail to capitalise simply because he’s using the same tactics he did 8 years ago and they’re just no longer working- but a pithy little motto against Harris or a derogatory nickname will certainly do damage- as I write that, it just shows how fcked up America really is.

Harris could fail on everything from a successful hate campaign that she’s not fit to be president down to her gender, ethnicity and apathetic voters on the day- there’s no point in shying away from it, there are some Americans out there, no idea how many, that just will not vote for either a female or ethnic president - I wonder has research been done on that but they’re definately factors at play

There is stuff some people know about that is not on my radar, and there is stuff on my radar that some people have never heard of. Thats people. There are some people who consume zero news. Actively turn off the news when it comes on, and only read the sports pages of the red tops, if that.

Social Media records what people like and displays relevant content to them. If a person has never mentioned Trump or the election in a comment, or liked a picture of Harris, they end up in the opposite of an echo chamber, where they don't hear about that particular subject at all.

I'm sure my knowledge or lack there of on a wide range of things would stagger some people. I didn't know what Taylor Swift even looked like until recently for example.

Brexit Vote Leave, with it's relatively unlimited budget, put a huge amount of resources into this demographic. The people who've never voted, have no interest or knowledge of politics, many not even registered as voters.

It's why the amount of money raised it important. Theoretically it allows you to fund activists who can go to these sort of places and get people voting and, merely by showing interest in these voters you can get them to vote the way you suggest. Though there'll always be a counter temptation to use the excess funds on bigger TV and newspaper ads which are 'safer', but really only reach the usual voters.

The Republicans at state level don't bother with this vote.

Instead they have a better tactic, supress it.

Minimal amounts of polling stations which leads to people unable to get there and if they do hours long queues just to vote.

A lot of these people would be in lower paid jobs where taken a day off to vote wouldn't be possible, and even if they had a day off would they want to spend it in line. You can't blame them.

The cost of getting this vote isn't just about knocking on doors, it's the cost associated with getting people to polling stations.

It really takes a small army with a huge amount of cash, the target is tiny but can be consequential.

I just don't think the time is on the side of Democrats to do, even allowing for record numbers of volunteers and cash.

it’s the “little” things alright - there were huge efforts to get the ethnic vote going for Obama if I remember correctly and it obviously paid off -a group notorious for not voting or indeed registering to vote- I assume the same structures are in place this time?

It’s definitely a given that regardless of how “good” Harris does at the polls, these structures still need to be in place come election day - you would wonder though- females, ethnic minorities- they’re given a candidate with both qualities and still there’s doubt that they’ll vote for her

What are Trump's policies?

1. Establish an autocracy and jail any opposition
2. Demolish any climate action initiatives
3. Revoke workers rights, demolish unions
4. Revoke rights and supports for gay and trans people
5. Make women subservient to men
6. Kill NATO and force Ukranian surrender
7. Turn Gaza into a holiday resort

Seriously, this election is set up that anyone would literally prefer a monkey in a suit to Trump. But yeh, lol your head off there, lol boy.

Oh, I don't think Convicted Felon Trump and his flying monkeys want to eliminate the DoJ. Just weaponize it worse than it was under that John Goodman look-alike and CFTrump endorser Barr.