Vice President Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump 2024

@Quin_Dub

Johnathan Swan from Axios did a good job a few years ago with him, just kept calling him back on a single issue.

That's a bit easier to manage in a TV interview because the interviewer has a lot of leeway in terms of choosing what is discussed. In a debate, the moderator is usually trying to move things forward to different areas of policy.

Certainly not an impossible thing to do in a debate - even Trump himself managed to stick to the topic of the border in his debate against Biden - but you do need a way to always connect back to your attack points.

Why does Harris want to unmute the debate? Trump is an expert at spamming nonsense and gish gallop, she won't get a word in edgeways.

I think it will appeal to women voters. Man talking over a woman? More universally relatable than a bag of Doritos, let me just say.

So, I see lots of 'it's dead even' headlines, e.g., places like Thehill.com..

Yet, fivethirtyeights summary of polls is saying Harris +4 nationally.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

And the fivethirtyeight summary is from a few days ago.

Even Thehill's poll shows +4% nationally.

So, dead even? No. Harris in the lead. Swing states are tight, but that's not dead even.

Very frustrating. Plus it's August, as always, the only poll that matters takes place on 5 November.

Yeah, im not sure how the national average weights the states, if she has a commanding lead in California for example does it have a skew on her national appeal, when she could be struggling to carry a lead in the swing states that will actually decide whether the election is a landslide or not.

You'd want a more significant margin to call it, especially since 538 is an amalgamation of multiple polls which have different and potentially flawed methodologies

For example if you randomly called a bunch of people, but most of them were in blue states then your poll would probably show more support for Harris which may not be real

What conclusions can be drawn at this stage is that Harris has very successfully rallied the democrat voters who weren't happy with Biden. The momentum is with her, the big question is whether she can get her voters to turn out on the day. Voter apathy could kill her easily enough at this stage

Trump on the other hand seems to have hit his peak support and is again dependent on getting his supporters to turn out. The MAGA side of his part will definitely turn out, the question is the more around middle ground conservatives. This is a group which doesn't necessarily subscribe to his antics and would prefer to see policy

If Trump can find some economic issue to corner Harris on then he'll be in with a chance to win. The usual rallying cry is the Dems are planning to raise taxes

I'm guessing this is partly why we're seeing generally moderate economic policy from Harris, no big giveaways other than a promise to stop taxing tips.

All she needs to do is persuade the moderate republicans she won't tank the economy and they'll probably sit the election out after getting fed up of listening to Trump ramble on about electric sharks being eaten by Hannibal Lecter or whatever

In that case, I think her plan is working

She should turn up and treat it as a press conference.

The diapers would need doubling up.

A lot of tech companies moved to Texas which would be bringing in more college educated workers who tend to vote democrat

So yes, could end up being a battleground state at some point, although it'll probably get gerrymandered to hell to keep it red

"Trump is an expert at spamming nonsense and gish gallop,"

Let him off, once he goes off-script, she'll have him where she wants him.