Time for a zero refugee policy? - *Read OP for mod warnings - updated 11/5/24*

You are some spoofer. How many times is that now have you been caught posting absolute lies?

Zero credibility now if you ever had any to begin with.

___________________________________________

Warned:

1 - discuss the topic, not the poster

2 - you're threadbanned

3 - 1 week forum ban now

Now you got it.

Your 'gotcha' question isn't what you think it is.

How could I possibly provide a number for something I just can't see happening?

I just don't see where it would ever be the correct decision to invest further in failed hard border and deterrence policies.

It's like asking when we should introduce prohibition to tackle binge drinking, some things just don't work.

I believe the govt did say there could be 30k new arrivals this year, based on weekly numbers hitting 600 around May. Not sure what the weekly numbers are now.

There were also over 30k in direct provison by May, according to the dept of integration. Again, I dont know what that number looks like now in August.

Tents are back at the Grand Canal it seems.

This isnt a gotcha question.

You were the one that has suggested the government should take in every one who comes here for the short to medium term. Given that I assume you expect the government to plan for this - all the extra infrastructure, doctors etc - you know proper planning. Little point in making preparations for 10,000 if 50,000 show up. It is only fair to request your envisaged numbers for such a scenario.

"Failed hard border and deterrence policies"… You should query this with the government as I am sure they would be surprised at their existence, and no, people using smugglers to get across the med isn't one of them.

The estimates I had seen but the number of arrivals this year at approx 20k.

But even at 30k, we'd be talking somewhere in the region of 170k arrivals over 20 years.

That would equate to about 3% of the current population. This 3%, according to AGS, are no more likely to be involved in crime, and according to the ESRI, have strong participation rates in the workforce.

Yet we see them blamed for everything from the housing crisis to soggy football pitches.

It just doesn't add up.

Sorry, I wasnt suggesting asylum seekers were more likley to commit crime.

My point was solely focused on the numbers arriving and that the govt had revised their projection to 25k to 30k this year for new arrivals, vs the 20k I think they were expecting at the beginning of the year.

The weekly peak at 600 in May doesnt appear to have been maintained.

30k per year would take less than 6 years to get to 170k though, no?

There were some reports shared earlier in the thread showing historically higher rates of suspected involvement in certain types of crime by IPAs in Germany anyway, I don't recall anything from Finland. One of those reports at least was quite clear that it's results were in no way suitable for making broader conclusions.

I'm not aware of anything at all suggesting 'IPAs are more likely than the native population to commit crime', and I think AGS have been quite clear on that in Ireland.

A country with a housing crisis

Crap healthcare

A myriad of other social issues

I agree, we've little choice but to follow the EU approach in these matters.

While I don't agree myself with the current migration pact I do think it's a step towards rejecting the existing failed hard-border approaches.

Overall though I wouldn't consider any of this a 'crushing reality'. EU membership has been of great benefit to Ireland and at least we've been spared the madness of some of the solo run efforts, UK's 'stop the boats' madness or Sweden's mandatory spying on friends and neighbors coming to mind.

Not a crushing reality for me. But to those who shout and scream at Irish politicians as if they can do anything substantial about it , it must be.

None of it particularly stands out to be honest.

Cherry picking statistics like that tell very little without context.

How much are Iraqi men represented in demographic groups more likely to commit sexual offences? Are people living in accommodation centers more likely to be reported than domestic abusers? What constitutes a sexual offence? (in some countries catcalling is classified as a sexual offense, while I think it something that shouldn't be tolerated, I wouldn't categorize it in the same terms as sexual assault, rape etc)

One of these reports claimed IPAs were far more highly involved in 'fraud'. It sounds shocking until it emerged that 'fraud' in this case included public travel fare-dodging and the possibility that IPAs, like any newcomer might, simply didn't understand the payment system.

Cherrypicking is cherrypicking regardless of the crime or nationalities involved.

There's decades of studies on criminality from all sorts of perspectives. I can't think of any serious approach that would simply look at raw categorical figures like that and think job done, no more to say.

As for sexual assault figures, the report clearly looks more broadly at sexual offences. I'll assume you innocently misreported than Iraqi men are more likely to commit sexual assault and leave it to yourself to acknowledge your error. You also forgot to mention this qualifier from the report.

This only concerns suspected offences, which the police have moved to consideration of charges. This does not necessarily result in a charge or judgement. An offence committed by a casual acquaintance or a stranger is easier to report to the police than, for example, an offence committed by one’s spouse.

Comparing these type of figures is notoriously difficult across countries, regardless of whether it's Finland or not.

https://bra.se/bra-in-english/home/news-from-bra/archive/news/2020-09-30-difficult-to-compare-rape-statistics-in-european-countries.html