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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 21,927 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    And I still stand by that in the case of Louth that the finish could be higher to entice buyers out there.

    Similar is supposed to be happening in a couple developments that are in a village outside Limerick. Houses are slightly larger with a higher standard of finish.

    It would also prove my point to that QS just pulled from existing data they had

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Fair enough, personally I think it's an absurd explanation given the context of the report - to illustrate the viability of building private housing by calculating the affordability gap between buyers ability to pay and the build cost.

    If there is a viability issue in Louth because of an affordability gap then that problem is better solved by the average house in Louth making do with same level of finish as the average house in Dublin, than asking the taxpayer to pay for the higher level of finishes in Louth.

    In the context of affordability issues it is also possible lower prices might be a more effective enticement than higher finishes.

    But again this is simply a matter of opinion, we can agree to disagree on this too.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 21,927 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Look to be honest, hometruths there used to be a poster here called Property Queries a few years ago predicting a house price collapse to happen every six months a few years ago. It never happened.

    In general the majority of young people buying a home will always spend as much as they can afford on a house. Developers building in Louth just like the builder outside Limerick are just giving buyers a different option. I did not know you were posting about an affordability gap for houses in Louth.

    Developers/builders like any other business will try to maximise profit as much as possible. However they also have to compete against other developers on other sites. They also compete against the second hand housing market and against the option of doer uppers.

    This Generation are generally not into hardship. They are not willing to move into a house with no washing machine or dishwasher not to mind a house that has bare concrete floors, no curtains and is not painted. The developers in Louth will are looking to maximise there profit by attracting buyers from Dublin who are willing to live in Louth and commute in and out of Dublin.

    So the house may have a slightly bigger garden, it may have a slightly larger footprint, the appliances could be of a better make maybe Miele or Bosch than Indesit or Candy.

    So the SCSI bang out an email to members looking for price comparisons for 85sqM three bed semi's. They will hardly specify every detail down to electrical fittinf, loos and appliances. The CQA in Dublin will dip into his file and there will be costings for 8O sqM houses in a development of 1K+ houses and he will bang them off, he may or .ay not doctorthem slightly. The QA in Louth will pull out costings for 99sqM houses in a 200 house estate and send them off.

    The QA in Cork city prices for a 500 house development 85sqm in size etc. Th SCSI will probably have to send repeat emails to the QA's that work by themselves maybe even ring the lad in Leitrim who tells them he has no data for such a house and they encourage him to get some sort of figures. Or maybe he had figures for a development of 4 or 6 houses build on a brownfield site in a town in Leitrim for the local Authority

    As the saying goes there are

    "there are three types of lies, lies, damm lies and then there are statistics"

    Ya maybe they cooked up the figures around the country. But your argument that these was costing for exactly the same hypothetical houses was never a reality. As I posted to price such a house takes time, the timing of the figures could even be 6-12 months apart as QA's pull prices from different projects.

    That Is not to say the figures are a reality of what is happening on the ground

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    I'm familiar with PropQueries and his posting history. I didn't predict a house price collapse.

    I raised the questions about these figures because they are repeatedly cited unquestioned by our government as evidence to justify using ever increasing amounts taxpayers funds on the demand to bridge the apparent affordability gap because build costs are so high.

    This should be a cause of concern to everybody.

    I also raised them because there are a number of posters on here who repeatedly state with absolute certainty that there is no room for prices to fall because if they did developers would simply down tools and refuse to build at a loss.

    Now, obviously developers are not going to build at a loss. But I am wondering what are you basing your conviction on that developers margins are currently so tight there is no room for price drops?

    If it is not these figures, that as you say yourself don't reflect the reality of what is happening on the ground, what is the basis for the theory on the tight developers margins?

    Because if it is just your gut feeling and reading of the anecdotal evidence, it is no more or less credible than my gut feeling and reading of the SCSI figures that there is a fair bit of room for prices to fall and developers to remain profitable.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    .

    you have such a black and white thinking when it comes to data or statistics it’s crazy and this isn’t the first or only case and it’s not just me calling this out as multiple posters have tried to do so over the years.

    you don’t need a report or some statistic to realise that if house prices drop by 30% that new builds will slow down or stop.



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  • Administrators Posts: 56,219 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Unless the data is normalised to account for the huge difference in volumes then you are wasting your time trying to make comparisons like this. The numbers you are comparing are averages, but the scale of development in Dublin vs Leitrim is very significant.

    Economies of scale will impact the per-unit cost, some developments in Dublin will have hundreds or thousands of units, developers will pay significantly less if they're buying 500 or 1000 kitchens vs a developer buying 50 kitchens for a development in Leitrim.

    Similarly, because land costs in Dublin are much higher developers will need to save costs in other areas.

    The numbers are not that surprising, though I guess anyone can try make whatever narrative they want out of it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,625 ✭✭✭fliball123


    I am still at odds why modular homes have not been built in large scale. They could be used for those gaining a house on the social and the influx of refugees coming into the country. All people who are currently housed via our social welfare system should be moved to these and those houses freed up to go onto the property market for sale. This would be the cheapest and quickest solution to our current issue. I do agree with those that say there is an agenda from our political system and media to keep the current system in place. Why the media have not reported on this is bizarre as well. This would also quell the moral hazard of those working their asses off to buy a house and seeing others getting the same while sitting on their asses doing nothing. A modular home has a 60 year life span so the sprogs of those getting the house for free will not get it passed on as this is what is currently happening in the country. Our welfare system is now being passed down from parent to child over the last 20 years and it is now seen as a viable way forward to garner a house from the system and give very little back.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    You seem obsessed with this 30% drop. I didnt mention anything about 30%.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,625 ✭✭✭fliball123


    30%+ drop if modular homes where built and built specifically for 2 cohorts - social housing and refugees and free up properties currently being used for sale for the private market but there needs to be a culling of vultures and a severe upping of stamp duty for those buying to let to deter more properties coming off the market for sale.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,036 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Its like dealing with an automated customer service that does not understand the question.

    Similar issue a few months back where an international study found no great difference in international build costs except for a huge difference in windows, doors, and footpaths in Ireland.

    Direct labour costs in Ireland were around the average.

    Does not appear to be any attempt to investigate this discrepancy to see if any savings could be made. We just continue to throw taxpayers money at it and accept whatever figures the sector throws at us, no due diligence. High paying taxpayers here then making excuses for it. Baffling behaviour



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  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Not that surprising?

    So if the average 3 bed semi in Leitrim has kitchens costing almost twice that of kitchens in the average 3 bed semi in Dublin due to economies of scale in Dublin, is it surprising that kitchens in Louth cost almost half of what they do in Dublin?

    Where are the economies of scale to drive such a bargain coming from in Louth? Remember these are the same average 3 bed semis in Louth that finishes cost twice as much in Dublin?

    It's not related to your post, but as an aside it is definitely curious that the average 3 bed semi in Louth apparently needs the highest standard of finish in the country by some distance to entice buyers out of Dublin, yet those same buyers are apparently satisfied with the cheapest kitchens in the county.

    And if these figures reflect economies of scale, as you'd expect, is not surprising that the big developers in Dublin who are capable of driving such a hard bargain on kitchens, bettered only by Louth, are not capable of securing a better deal on sales and marketing fees?

    If Dublin developers are building 1000s of cookie cutter houses with same ads, photos, brochures, floorplans etc how come they are paying almost 6k per house to estate agents, same as every other region in the country? Is that surprising?

    Developers of all sizes in all regions appear to be paying more in fees than private sellers. One shudders to think what the estate agents fees would be if economies of scale were not take into account.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,487 ✭✭✭herbalplants


    The same old same posters gaslighting facts. Taxpayers money used to prop up the housing prices.

    People are not buying because they can afford it for next 25 to 30 years, they buy due to desperation.

    Remember the shills only get paid when you react to them.



  • Administrators Posts: 56,219 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    As I said, without data normalisation the comparisons you are trying to make don't make sense. Without additional context it is impossible to draw meaningful conclusions.

    You are comparing chalk and cheese and then exclaiming that since chalk is not cheese there is obviously some underhanded nefarious scheming going on that absolutely nobody except the boards property thread is smart enough to see, which in your defence, is pretty much par for the course on this thread for the last decade.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 2,991 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    I suspect its is down to where these units will be placed. And how much of certain TDs voter base is people who are in the system.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    did I say you mentioned 30% no it was used in relation to what was originally being discussed. I.E. property to fall by 30% and no impact on jobs.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    But it was only discussed by you and few others usual suspects that are obsessed with that figure.

    Blut2 didn't say he thought developers could easily absorb a 30% fall either.

    He said 10 or maybe 20%. But as usual, what was actually posted was ignored and you ran with something else.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    As posted above, I don't think there is anything nefarious going on here.

    Lobbyists are going to lobby and promote their interests. It's totally expected and certainly not unique to the property sector.

    It's as unsurprising to me as the regional difference in kitchen pricing is apparently to you.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,625 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Well any TD in favour of our current refugee policy should be front and center and allow for modular homes be built as near to their house as possible. Only fair they have no bother allowing centers pop up left right and center with out consultation so it would only be right that these folks lead the way and find the space as close as possible to their family home, ye know lead by example



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,132 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    What I would like to see is what TDs, civil servants or other people in positions of power may be invested in entities that stand to benefit from the immigration situation. That would make for some interesting reading.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,699 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    Housing Ukranians has made Micheal Healy Rae a million euro and counting. The government is spending well over half a billion euro a year in housing costs

    https://www.thejournal.ie/michael-healy-rae-paid-e150000-to-house-ukrainian-refugees-6401658-Jun2024/



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    ok ……Next post….keep it coming 🤣🤣🤣



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 21,927 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    So we develop another form/version of Ballymun flats. Government policy is to integrate social housing with all other housing. It's trying to get away from gettoisation and the social problems it causes. It .ay not work bit they are not going to build dedicated social housing schemes especially in large urban areas

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,625 ✭✭✭fliball123


    At least people will have a roof over their head ghetto or no ghetto which is the worst of 2 evils housing cant be built quick enough 4 to 1 ratio with the increase in population vs new housing and no matter how this is dealt with we are going to have areas that have anti social issues or in your words some form a ghetto as has always been the case so there is no escaping that we may as well do it at a cheaper price point and at a quicker pace to quell this issue. The ballymun flats and other areas like Kilbarrack etc could of worked if proper policing and enforcement of rules as in if you mess around you get phucked out and no more social housing for you and you can hit the street we need more stick here not carrot. The current way we are dealing with it isn't working and has not worked for the last decade. When we were building housing and adequate social housing to meet the population needs things were a lot better but as pointed out we still had areas where you wouldn't dare walk down the street and now we cannot build to scale needed so modular homes is an option that really needs to be contemplated.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    We've sort of come full circle on the social housing integration thing.

    If councils, AHBs etc are buying entire developments then it is essentially the same as the old style concentrated social housing.

    Only difference being they are at a higher cost.

    Similar with the Oscar Traynor development in Coolock, built as 40% social housing, 40% cost rental, and 20% affordable purchase.

    Welcome back by the way, seems like quite a while since I last noticed you posting.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,132 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    There you go, and that's just one example.

    Many jobs have all sorts of contractual conditions to prevent conflicts of interest. The days of brown envelopes are long gone. Today's politician seemingly uses his position to push for policy that will fatten his wallet. Of course, it would help if political and civil servant positions were consistently NOT filled by the most avaricious, self serving and worthless people in Ireland….



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,349 ✭✭✭The Student


    Slightly different now as in the past who estates were wholly council owned. In above there is only 40% and remember council houses now come with a 25 yr tenancy.

    If after 25 yrs the property is bigger than your needs you will have to move or most likely pay a higher rent for the ability to have spare rooms (similar to the bedroom tax the UK tried to introduce.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,349 ✭✭✭The Student




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,036 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Immigration policy was/is killing the SF vote and FFG were/are well aware of it.

    Let's see where the votes went to gets us, your getting hints on both sides of the pond.

    Remember FFG are party first, country.......



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,132 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    YEs. I think that SF will never see power for this very reason. Working class people are feeling the brunt of the immigration policies of the state, and no one who is not wearing ideological blinkers can help but see that SF are just another coven of globalists. Even if SF were to achieve power, nothing would really change.

    For a good example of what could happen here, let's look over to the UK. Labour has just achieved a majority in the House of Parliament, and to absolutely no one's surprise, they have continued with the policies that the Tories followed for 14 years. Does this mean that in 5 years, the UK electorate will vote in the Tories again under the mistaken belief that they will be different?

    I'm not really of the opinion that voting will change much as the apparatus of the state is now replete with globalist ideologues. However, if a party that is a genuine opposition to this system rises, then we will know all about it because a genuine threat to the grift will be met a near psychotic reaction from the established media and persons of power. Look at how Trump or Farage have been treated (not a fan of either of them), and neither of them are radicles.

    Interesting times.

    EDIT: That was a bit of a rant, sorry :)



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  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Yep fair point re Oscar Traynor, and I am not sure who owns the cost rental portion, but irrespective of total ownership of the estate I suspect the medium term reality is a development consisting of 100% social welfare and low income residents - i,e exactly what Part V when first conceived was designed to avoid.

    And there are many cases of councils buying entire developments - here is a request from Meath Co Co:

    Housing Developers in Meath are being asked to consider offering under construction or recently completed new Turnkey Residential Developments and Uncommenced Residential Developments with planning permission to Meath County Council, under an advance purchase turnkey arrangement.

    https://www.meath.ie/council/news/we-wish-to-purchase-housing-developments-for-social-affordable-and-mixed-tenure-housing

    Point I am making is whilst the desire to move away from sink estate type social housing has a lot to like about it from an ideological point of view in theory, in practice the unintended consequences have resulted councils being forced into much the same outcome at a vastly higher cost.



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