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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Comments

  • Posts: 14,768 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    It is the wont of certain people on this thread to blame all on government policy, whilst ignoring the part played in our recovery over the last 10 years that led to full employment and a large number of high paying jobs. It’s almost as if they want to go back to 2012 when houses were cheap, but people still couldn’t afford them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Exactly or ask them to take a pay cut and/or pay more taxes to enable it to happen because that’s the reality of the situation in the real world.

    if prices are to drop by 30% without labour costs falling then you either

    • lower building standards and regulations (not going to happen with climate change)
    • Reduce tax in building costs and either increase taxes or cut expenditure elsewhere more than likely health or education (and before you say surplus that will be needed for a rainy day and can’t be counted on to pay for a long term policy as it could disappear quickly)
    • Provide massive grants if it’s in private sector (which they are already doing re apartments)
    • If it’s public sector building they need to take into account that they are writing a blank and probably need 5 years to get it up and going on scale and even then there will be massive fraud etc.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    I agree that it won’t happen without some major event… I’m just trying to point out that the idea that house prices drop by 30% and nobody takes a paycut or pays more taxes is more or less impossible because of knock on consequences that people like to ignore.

    for example OP said builders could go into infrastructure construction so not to take a pay cut…but this means less people building houses which equals less supply which equals higher prices…. The figures don’t add up



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 38,046 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Never mind 30% drop…if we could even get annual increases down to under 3% it would be something.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 21,927 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    There Is no way you will get a 30% drop without there being a drop in both labour and material prices of nearly similar amounts.

    Most of what you post is bananas economics. Yes the government has a surplus. However for the state to procure say 20k houses a year even at SF's 300k price would cost 6 billion a year. Last year the current budget surplus was 1.3 billion.

    The reality is that it cost money to build houses, the higher the number you build the more it costs per unit. Maybe if the Greens are not in government after the next election the new government can change the terms of reference of An Bord Pleanala and defund An Taisce. But even with more planning premissions and the PP happening faster and cheaper it will not necessarily make houses cheaper.

    The other suggestion for the government to stop all commercial build would have serious conquences. At present commercial is slowing down anyway but ceasing it completely would have conquences for companies both big and small

    Slava Ukrainii



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,095 ✭✭✭PeadarCo


    And what people also forget is that one of the reasons we have a housing crisis is in part due to the legacy of the last crash. House prices collapsed and so it building rates. This lead to large numbers of people exiting the industry and a lot of school leavers were reluctant to apply for anything to do with the construction industry to the low/uncertain job prospects. There was a huge brain drain within the industry.

    The government didn't have the money to build new houses and it would have been politically unpopular for the government to build houses in an era of ghost estates. That's not even considering the money required would have meant deeper cuts in other areas/more tax increases.

    The thing though is 2007/2008 is not too far off 20 years ago. Anyone realistically from their mid 20's and younger will not have direct experience of how hard it was to get employment during that time. It's very easy to look back at a very different housing market with rose tinted glasses but forget why it was like that for anyone older.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,853 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Cut tax paying subsidies? Do you mean rent subsidies?

    The other points I agree with; although the commercial build migrarion to resi should take care of itself now, at least for a few years.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    you see the same thing with people saying there parent bought a house on just one income and totally forget that a married man’s wage was nearly twice what a single man’s wage was as so it was the equivalent of two wages back then.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 21,927 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    The big difference with houses back then to now was you bought the walls with windows and doors ( well you could describe them as windows and doors) and virtually nothing else.

    At present people building self builds are starting to reduce/take out expensice features in houses, such as corner or feature windows, extra large sliding doors, vaulted ceilings etc because of the costs involved.

    Young lad took out a vaulted ceiling because it was adding 5k to build cost and it would have caused extra cost to the heat recovery system.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 48 Snopake


    Genuine question, was there a jump in wages when you got married? I hadn’t heard of that before



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 358 ✭✭kalych


    Genuine question as I see similar comments on here regularly about the budget impact. Won't these houses be sold almost instantly, considering the demand, resulting in no budget deficit? If sold at cost with no profit they'll still generate the same return as the invested capital or close to it.

    As such this is totally different to any current government spending in that it's not new 6 billion needed to be taken out of taxes each year, like healthcare budget overruns for example. It's money that is invested and then returned back into the exchequer as soon as the house sells. So the same 6 billion could be reinvested in perpetuity every year in theory.

    I think the budget argument is totally bogus TBH. Not to say there aren't other arguments against direct government building of housing, like competition for labour with private companies, general bureaucratic inefficiencies and the often mentioned EU state aid rules (not that anyone can explain how other countries avoid these and still build plenty of housing, for example Finland).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    absolutely just like women had to give up their jobs when they got married….it was a different time and even after they abolished these practices for civil servants it still continued for a few years in some businesses.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 21,927 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    The 20k is mainly the social and some affordable element. It could turn out substantially higher as demand for social housing would substantially increase.

    The reason are first people that at present sharing with HAP would want a separate apartment/ house. You then have the house with multiple family units both rented and existing social and private. This is all assuming 50k+ units build a year and costs @ 300k which is economically unlikely.

    This is why I always say HAP is an exceedingly excellent value for the government. In 2022 I think it cost approx 750 billion. It housed 68k households with the households paying part of the payment to the state as well as the LL.

    To house that many @300k a house would cost 21 million alone. You can add to that the demand from those in multiple houes etc and people that do not bother with the system but would be entitled to it if they applied

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    The idea that house prices can never drop a cent because it would cause all private developers to stop developing new projects, and that this would then cause all housing construction in the state to grind to a halt, is quite obviously completely insane when you look at the real world figures. Its a propaganda line exclusively pushed by developers, and politicians in their pocket, who want ever rising prices and ever increasing profit margins.

    Well said. The whole argument is based exclusively on figures produced by lobbying vested interests which are swallowed hook, line and sinker without even a second thought, and used to justify throwing good taxpayers money after bad.

    Can @Timing belt , @Bass Reeves , @Dav010 or anybody else who is convinced that there is no room for construction costs to fall without builders downing tools explain the regional discrepancies in the SCSI figures?

    Sure obviously land costs in Greater Dublin will be higher than everywhere else, and labour would be expected to be a little higher too. But materials, and fixtures and fittings ought to be broadly similiar.

    Look at the regional breakdown of the SCSI figures to build exactly the same 3 bed house to exactly the same standard across the country:

    scsi-regions.png

    Why is the substructure (foundations) in Dublin almost twice the cost of that in Cork? Is it simply increased labour? And if so then why are siteworks and site development costs more expensive in Cork than in Dublin?

    Why are fittings - kitchens, wardrobes etc - almost 100% more expensive in Leitrim than in Dublin?

    And whilst the superstructure in Leitrim is almost half the price of Dublin, the siteworks in Leitrim are almost 50% higher than in Dublin? Why is this? Are specialist landscapers in Leitrim the most in demand in the country?

    And why are finishes - painting etc - over €50k in Louth vs €26k in Dublin. Is the paint and labour used in Louth almost twice the price of that in Dublin?

    Finishes in Dublin are the cheapest in the country, if other aspects of the build that are more expensive in Dublin can be put down to labour why is the labour involved in finishes so cheap in Dublin and so much more expensive elsewhere?

    And if it is not the labour, why are the materials in Dublin so cheap compared to everywhere else?

    And why is Galway comfortably the most expensive region in the country for loos and gutters? 34k vs 10k in Dublin?

    If you look beyond the headlines these figures don't stand up to scrutiny.

    https://scsi.ie/realcost2023/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,132 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    Personally speaking, I bought in 2022, and my house is now worth about 10% more than what I paid for it. I would lose out if prices dropped, but to me, it's better in the long run for everyone if this happens. The policies of the state to perpetuate growth are beyond socially deleterious, and whilst I don't have kids myself, I do have nephews, and I want them to have a future.

    Post edited by RichardAnd on


  • Posts: 14,768 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Are you genuinely asking why construction costs for developers are more expensive in Dublin than Leitrim?



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    No, I didn't ask that question or even close to it. Maybe read the post again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,548 ✭✭✭extra-ordinary_


    Have you any credible links/sources for your claim that a single man's wage was doubled once they were married?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 21,927 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    The reason why everything is more expensive In Dublin is time as well as development cost.

    First on labour. How much extra would you need to be paid for a job in if you operated out of Portlaois compared to doing the sane job in Dublin? 50%.

    Young lad is build a self build at present about 20 miles from Limerick city. All his trades are coming from tge side further away from Limerick city. These lads are coming from up to an hour away. They are pricing the jobs 10-30% cheaper than trades around him as they do not want to travel another hours for work.

    Deliver costs for materials in Dublin are crazy. A concrete truck with conveyer did 4 loads in about 7 hours one day and tgat is including his lunch break. His return time was about 40 minutes. He be lucky to do 2-3 in Dublin in an 8 hour day.

    If I am up at 5.30 am in the morning and not home untafter 7pm and if when I go to the shop for chicken roll it's 20-50 more expensive than Letrim I want to earn 50% more to do it

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Once again, I am not asking why everything is more expensive in Dublin. Quite the opposite.

    Here are some of the questions again, simplified for clarity. Are you able to answer any of them?

    • Why are site works and site development costs more expensive in Cork than in Dublin?
    • Why are fittings - kitchens, wardrobes etc - almost 100% more expensive in Leitrim than in Dublin?
    • Why are the siteworks in Leitrim almost 50% higher than in Dublin?
    • Why are finishes - painting etc - over €50k in Louth vs €26k in Dublin?
    • Why do loos and gutters cost over three times as much in Galway as in Dublin?


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 21,927 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Site works I presume is the site work. Carried out by the builder even though it says within the site is it actually within the site. Not far from me is a village and another area not a village where there is a school, church, pub and speed limit. A builder got planning subject to him installing a sewer that was not just within his site but also to the public sewers about 3 km away in the next village. That would be an extreme example and the site was never developed.

    All Dublin site works would have access to a sewer. A substantial number of developments would have house numbers in the very high hundreds. So you have some economies of scale, as well site development works for apartments are much more compact than houses which there is a substantial number in Dublin compared to elsewhere around the country

    The Cork price is not just for Cork city it's also for the smalls towns and villages and for developments of single one off dwellings and small developments of anything from 2-4 houses to 10-20.

    Cost for the treatment unit for my sons house will be 5k+, planing, plans and detailed house plans cost 5k the fencing, clearing and roadway will cost another 5k, electricity and water 3-4k, putting in sewers etc another couple k abd he is doing a lot of the work himself

    Leitrim is probably mainly one off housing so that would account for the difference work cost, people doing one off houses tend to finish to a higher standard.

    In Louth I suspect that developers may be finishingbto a higher standard, a slightly larger house than in Dublin to attract buyers from Dublin. It labour costs are probably similar to Dublin due to public transport options

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    These figures are for exactly the same spec, same finish, same size 3 bed semi, with same infrastructure on site eg mains sewage, water etc.

    That's kind of the point of producing the figures, so they are comparable.

    So none of your theories would explain the cost differentials.

    Any other ideas?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,095 ✭✭✭PeadarCo


    The thing is though building a house in say the middle of Dublin and a town in Leitrim are not comparable. The specs can be the complete same but the costs required to deliver these specs can be very very different. There was an article in the independent/Irish times of residents in Dublin giving out about the building of student accommodation because of the issues with dirt and traffic caused by cement workers and the builders in general. In a rural town that's less of a concern. Again in Dublin cement trucks have to deal with more delays caused by traffic potentially requiring more trucks because of lower efficiency. In a less developed area it's not a problem. That's just one example.

    There is no reason why building costs for the same housing spec should be the same across the country. Local factors impact labour and material costs.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Of course you'd expect regional differences, that's obvious and intuitive.

    The point I am making the Scsi regional differences appear to be counter intuitive.

    Of course I might be missing something very obvious hence why I am asking the question.

    What are the local factors that you can think of that would cause the finishes on exactly the same size and spec of 3 bed semi in Louth to cost over 50k, whereas it almost half that in Dublin at 26k.

    Or sanityware costs three times as much in Galway as in Dublin?

    Remember this the average, most commonly built house, so the explanation must be something very obvious.

    What is it?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,095 ✭✭✭PeadarCo


    Fairly simple as another poster mentioned houses in Louth may have a more expensive finish to attract people from Dublin. Remember the overall spec and size might be the same but elements such as finish, stuff like house hold appliances etc installed could all be different. Ultimately you would have to big into the details but the answer is going to be very boring and not some grand conspiracy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    ask anyone old enough if you want to verify it…ask as pay was determined based on gender and marriage status? This started to change 50 years ago but still existed (unofficially just like women were paid less despite laws being in place) into the mid 80’s and although abolished before this time it was common practice to get promoted when you got married which was another way of implementing this.

    Yes it sounds crazy today but it was aligned to church goals of marriage, bread winner etc. and church had big influence so it continued in Ireland long after other countries introduced equal rights and banned such practices. Let’s not forget when a woman got married she legally had to give up her job…..I’m sure there are hundreds of sources on line as this is actual history not just some urban legend.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    There is no difference in fittings and finishings, that's the whole point. It is expressly mentioned that the build costs are based on hypothetical average three bed semis of the same size and finish.

    As this exchange with you and others has shown, there is no obvious explanation.

    If you as a private individual had a comparable site in Dublin, Louth and Galway and were pricing the build of three houses exactly the same size and spec in each location, and your QS came back with 50k finishes in Louth vs 26k in Dublin, and sanityware three times the price in Galway as Dublin, your first instinct would be somebody was yanking your chain and massaging the figures.

    The variances are so large and so counterintuitive, so seemingly implausible, at the very least you'd ask why.

    But when it comes to throwing taxpayers money at the problem nobody has a issue with it. Everybody seems to think it is totally plausible.

    That's also a bit baffling to be honest.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,548 ✭✭✭extra-ordinary_


    A woman had to give up her job only if she worked in the public sector.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,132 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    I can confirm some of this as I have a lot of family in the civil service. Women generally did leave after marriage up until the 80s or so. It may seems very strange to a modern eye, but to someone of the past, having both parents working whilst the children are in day care would probably seem equally strange.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 21,927 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    They might not have had to give up there job in the private sector but the vast majority did or else worked part-time

    Slava Ukrainii



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