Russia-Ukraine War

For context, this is what I said a week ago today:

My view then, and also my view now, is that Ukraine attacked Russia where Russia was weak, that they may dig in but that their primary focus is on causing as much damage to the Russian military as possible, with secondary goals of redicting troops from elsewhere, cutting logistics and proving that they can use US vehicles on Russian soil without nuclear retaliation.

To expand on this, at the end of the day, in a war you have to fight somewhere. Sooner or later two armies will confront each other directly in a kinetic exchange. If that is inevitable, then you have to accept that, embrace it, and try to create conditions where your army is at an advantage, the other army is at a disadvantage or, as here, both.

Are they trying to take and hold territory - yes, but only insofar as it provides them with tactical/operational advantages. Is this being done to improve their negotiating strength - no, at least not directly. Indirectly, Ukraine's negotiating strength is improved when they defeat Russia on the battlefield or in other key areas such as economic / diplomatic pressure. Ukraine simply isn't interested in ceeding territory to Russia, so the suggestion that is often made (not sure if you are directly making it or not) that by taking Kursk they can trade it off for say Kherson and let Russia take Donbas and Crimea is not based in reality.

Ukraine have no interest in any negotiations that don't involve the complete withdrawal of Russian troops. That could only change if they are defeated on the battlefield and even then it is not guaranteed because conceding territory to Russia could result in the political collapse of the Ukrainian state.

The bottom line, as I've said before, is that to understand what is happening you shouldn't look at the dog in the fight, but rather the fight in the dog. Russia may have a larger military on paper, and it unquestionably has a larger economy than Ukraine. But for Ukraine the fight is existential, whereas, despite Putin's assertions to the contrary, it is a war of choice for Russia. Ukraine have no option but to fight, whereas Russia do.

So if you are, meaning no disrespect to you personally, looking at the war as the Russians would like you to do, being that the bigger side will always win and the smaller side must make concessions, its easy to fall into the trap of thinking that the Ukranians look at it from that point of view as well, and in that context, taking a piece of Russia to improve the negotiating position makes sense.

But I would suggest that the correct way of looking at this is that Ukraine has the same options that faced Kyle Rees and Sarah Conor - either they stop the terminator or they will die. It cannot be bargained with, it doesn't feel pity or remorse. Ukraine has to fight. In that context, the benefits of this operation are manifest and the downside risks were moderate but acceptable. As it turned out, it has worked out very well so far, and there has been almost no downside. It was never intended as a stunt or as a bargaining chip, but as a further step towards defeating Russia. Long may that continue.