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Vice President Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump 2024

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  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,915 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Now this is potentially significant

    Vice President Kamala Harris is narrowly ahead of Donald Trump on the number of voters who trust her handling of the economy, according to a new Financial Times/Michigan Ross poll.

    Only one poll and well inside the MOE, but if Trump and the GOP lose their edge on the Economy they are cooked.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,300 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Did Trump ever even have an edge on the economy? He inherited the economic recovery from Obama and then relaxed some regulations. After that, he seemed intent on riding that wave to reelection. Not a bad plan except that it kind of relied on no crisis popping up, and that's really where he became undone. He cannot lead through any sort of adversity. We see it even now in his reelection bid. His campaign was 'disciplined' when Joe Biden was trailing in every poll. Now it's in disarray just because Harris has closed the gap. Can't handle pressure.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,915 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Sadly yes - Despite all factual evidence to the contrary , US voters have almost always given the GOP higher marks for the economy than the Democrats.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,042 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    None of these polls really matter all that much at the end of the day. They are all far too volatile. One poll will say one thing and then another will appear in short order to contradict it. Plus we have no proper idea of how these pollsters are collecting their data and how it's being processed.

    When Americans go to the polls in November, we'll get a more representative and fuller picture of what they are/were thinking. Right now, there's no real solid indication of what will happen then that can be gathered from polling results.

    Post edited by Tony EH on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,101 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    True about the polls but we do have previous elections on which to gauge sentiment.

    Overall it seems the GOP have failed to hit the numbers that polling suggests. Abortion seems to be a major factor since SCOTUS overturned RoevWade but even before that GOP were underperforming.

    Against that is the Trump factor. He clearly has a massive following which appears to go beyond the support of GOP.

    He won in 2016, which was largely seen as a vote against HC. 2020, he was the incumbent and thus carried a huge advantage and Biden was hardly an inspiring candidate but he still managed to mobilise the largest vote ever.

    Tldr: polls are not overly reliable but there is plenty of evidence to suggest Trump is struggling.

    Post edited by Leroy42 on


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,683 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    helps them that corporate media bias leans in favor of Republican economic policy. Go figure, probably half the reason their policies exist, to bake in that free media support.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 603 ✭✭✭Stanley 1


    Would think he was a big hit on the gay scene along with his other weirdo mate, Don Junior.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,300 ✭✭✭✭briany


    No, I'd say polls matter quite a bit. Polls are, for example, a big reason why Biden decided to step out of the race. He and/or his donors looked at the numbers and concluded they were bad and only likely to get worse.

    Nobody would argue that you'd put your house on an election where there were only a couple of points in it, but it's not an accident that polls have been and remain the foremost empirical way of gauging voter intention. It's a truism to say they're not perfect or that the only poll which really matters is the election, because yeah of course, but they're the best measure we have of which way the wind is blowing, and most probably why there is not only a big public industry around it, but political parties themselves conduct polls internally.

    Right now, we can certainly glean this from the polls - the election will be much closer than Trump thought it would be in early July and he is not a happy bunny.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,683 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    thing to remember is as much as the pivot to Harris morphed the election within days, the election can be morphed again in days by the right or wrong set of circumstances. It wouldn’t be rare for the polls to go back and forth or stay tight until November.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,300 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Untitled Image

    Hope he at least remembered to put his jugs the right way 'round.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,042 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    Biden dropped out not because of polling. He dropped out because it was the right thing to do. He was/is too old to be pursuing the top job in America. He had a good run of it for a term, but it's clear to everyone (including him) that he can't continue. It's just too much for a guy his age and especially for a guy that wants the job for the right reasons. It wasn't polling that made Joe think twice. Just the obvious nature of ageing.

    And here is the major problem with polling. You use the term "right now". But that means absolutely nothing in November. Right now, for something that won't occur for another two and half months, is absolutely meaningless. Anything can happen between "right now" and two and half months away…and in the circus that is American politics it often does.

    Jesus, Trump was nearly killed a few weeks ago.

    If, say, two and half months ago I told you that Trump would be shot at, Biden would step down and Kamala Harris and Tim Walz would be contesting the election, you'd have called me mad.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,507 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    The polling data, the momentum for Harris, rallies, positive media commentary is putting pressure on Trump and his campaign, and he doesn't handle it well.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,031 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    Disagree. It was only the “right thing to do” when it became obvious he was going to lose. His condition didn’t just appear overnight, there was denial of, if not active collusion to conceal the problem. The right thing to do would have been to act before they were caught out Only total loss of donor support combined with plummeting poll numbers (likely a self feeding circle, the donors not wanting to back a losing horse, then that feeding into the news cycle and affecting polls) forced, after -continued- denial from Biden’s camp, the dropping out.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,958 ✭✭✭✭Penn


    His "condition" is age. There wasn't denial or collusion to conceal it, it was simply a case of determining if it would affect his performance as President, how much by, how much would it affect his standing with voters, and could it cost them the election.

    Ultimately it became evident especially over the past year that yes, his age and slowdown had become the primary factor that could put people off voting for him, and would hand Trump the election. It was damn near undeniable after the debate. And so therefore polls were plummeting, donors abandoning, senior Dems publicly telling him he should step down and then the decision was up to him and he chose to not run again, because it was the right thing to do.

    But to say he had a condition to which there was active collusion to conceal is just wrong.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,187 ✭✭✭I.R.Y.E.D


    Back to their previous accommodation at HRM's pleasure.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,042 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    His age is the reason he's stepping down. Not any polling data. Coupled with a very bad debate performance where he was clearly tired and not up to the job, the culmination of all the varying factors helped form the sensible decision to step aside. The guy needs to retire, he's done his service.

    Once that bad performance was digested, there was really no other option.

    Before that Biden had been trailing Trump in the polls anyway.

    There's far too much emphasis, traction and credence placed on transient polling results, especially in US politicking, when really they're just a snapshot in time and a very tenuous one at that. For instance Harris and Walz may be looking good today, but next month might tell a different story altogether.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,770 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    Something herself has pointed out to me repeatedly: Biden's sons really made his life miserable. Beau dying of cancer, and Hunter being the ultimate spoiled rich boy dragging the family through the mud takes its toll. Especially Hunter being such a problem when Biden is POTUS with all that entails. I think he's just worn out by his family's chaos. Hunter is a loser and the sooner he's out of the public eye, the better for everyone. If I were him, I'd pardon Hunter before he left the WH. Talk about picayune Federal gun charges, yeesh.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,915 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    If I were him, I'd pardon Hunter before he left the WH. Talk about picayune Federal gun charges, yeesh.

    I wouldn't.

    To be honest I think a big part of Hunters problems is the fact that Joe was always there to bail him out , literally and metaphorically.

    Hunter is clearly messed up - Losing his mother and sister in a car crash has to have had a long term impact , PTSD of some form. Then his brother dies , the brother that seems to have been the real anchor in the family.

    Not excusing his generally **** behaviour , but he clearly needs major help and getting a pass on stuff repeatedly probably isn't in his best interests really.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,770 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    Not buying the PTSD thing. Hunter was 2 years old when his mother and sister died in a car crash. He's led an elite, pampered life all through youth and adulthood. A prison sentence won't help him imo.

    No, I think Hunter's got his addiction issues because he's got no character. Kind of like RFK Jr who at least was a teenager when his father was murdered, also elite and pampered, and ended up an addict and a lifelong loser.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,111 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    You may be right on this, but the logic of that exposes the continued denial on the Republican side of the clear and obvious deterioration in Trump's mental capacity. Yes, the Democrats should have acted sooner, but that is more than mitigated by the continued failure of the Republicans to similarly do the necessary.



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  • Posts: 6,626 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    The reason why the Republica party are in a total collapse and delivering so many unforced gaffs is because they purged vast swaths of the party in order to promote their ideologically pure Project 2025, a push to end all pushes.

    The same thing happened with the British Tories and Brexit. It guts the party of wisdom (replaced by ideology) and resilience which manifests itself as a total inability to adapt to changing circumstances and any headwind.

    The only times these approachs have actually worked is with Hitler and Moa, and the reason they worked is because they murdered all opposition and the grandees of their own party.

    The Republicans and the Tories fortunately don't have such luxury and no real intellectual or strategic talent to rebuild in the short term.

    They doomed themselves. Trump is just the symptom.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,958 ✭✭✭✭Penn


    Yeah I'd say he was always destined to be the dud in the family regardless. But no doubt he's caused a lot of issues for Joe over the years. No chance Joe should or will pardon him though. As much of a F*ck You as it'd be to Trump and the GOP even if Kamala is President-Elect, I'd be more inclined to think there'll be a new plea deal reached because the GOP won't care any more.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,042 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    I think it's obvious the guy is tired. Christ, I'm nearly half his age and I don't think I'd be able for the circus that is US politics. It's a farce at the best of times and the utter nonsense that you have to endure on a daily basis is incredible. Plus, couple that was all of the pressure of being the actual President of a country that has such a world wide reach (for better or worse).

    Irrespective of the guy's familial issues, which "herself" is probably right about, the above alone would do anyone's head in.

    But it all speaks to a gross need on term limits that should be instituted in American politics. There needs to be a retirement age put into effect.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,683 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    Republicans swore up and down they weren’t going to push for a federal ban of women’s drugs now here they are setting the stage to do precisely that

    I hope they keep losing their mask like this it makes the Harris campaigns job easier

    https://www.facebook.com/share/NjSfCNHs9fh9feeC/?mibextid=CTbP7E



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 655 ✭✭✭FaganJr


    Couch humping weirdos!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,371 ✭✭✭Sigma101


    I've read this a lot in the last few weeks. I don't see the deterioration to be honest. I think his recent ramblings and social media outbursts are entirely consistent with his deranged behaviour four years ago. He's just picking up where he left off, and doubling down on maga. I remember going to bed late each night in 2020 in order to catch his bizarre daily COVID press conferences, just for the entertainment value.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,915 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Yet more evidence of Trump fighting the election on policies and the issues that matter to the average voter.

    Donald Trump is set to sue the Justice Department for $100 million over the classified documents raid on his Mar-a-Lago estate, according to reports.

    Yup.. That'll move them polls alright.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,683 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    Time’s new cover

    IMG_5846.png


  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,915 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub




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  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,915 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    We've seen this behaviour before , but we are just seeing more and more of it without any "moments of clarity" for the want of a better term that we had in the past.

    The "better angels" that might have been there in the past that could keep him on message are long gone and he is becoming more and more consumed by his desire for revenge.

    I mean , he's behind in the polls and everyone is telling him that he needs to shift focus to policy and what does he do?

    Hunkers down in Mar-a-Lago and starts suing the DOJ and threatening to sue the NYT.

    He'll spend the rest of this week rage-tweeting (or X'ing or Truthing or whatever the F*ck you call it now) about Harris and the Democratic convention doing absolutely nothing to improve his electoral position.



This discussion has been closed.
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