FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Is it just me or has the ECM performed terribly this summer? Along with most of the models. It predicted a ‘storm’ type system for today (Wednesday) at the weekend, never materialised. It predicted 16c and cloudy Monday when I was on Achill the day prior, it was closer to 22c and sunny. While we might be locked into a jet stream pattern, many of the GFS runs don’t seem as pessimistic. To me, the latest GFS run has some days next week looking decent while the ECM just has pure muck.

Yes Wet Eireann has a washout Saturday but not much significant rain on other days here in Sligo bar the usual bits of mist n drizzle.

A lot of heat building over Spain in the next week, I can see us getting an early August Heatwave with severe thunderstorms

No dart board lows/ chilly weather to arrive next week as far as I can see dis morning, Tuesday/ Wednesday/ Thursday actually looking quite nice coming in at around 21/22 degrees in sunshine

I agree Gonzo. The models have been very poor all winter as well with huge swings every run. The inconsistency leaves the general forecasts from met eireann etc as unreliable, especially anything after 3 days. Anyway I suppose at least this topic is F1

The ECM still seems keen to bring in an area of high pressure towards the end of next week.

The uppers aren't spectacular. But at this time of year any decent bit of sun will still see temps climb nicely into the low 20s at least.

We could end up with a half-decent August after all.

was hearing alot about warm settled weather the last 24 hours from next weekend onwards, that seemed to align with Mt craniums forecast this morning, but then i assumed that this would be in a southwest pig flow airstream, with drizzle, patchy rain and dampness along western coastal extremities of ireland with a permanent temperature of 15 degrees, with the warm hot weather for england and wales and a diluted version for ireland the further east you are. Im imaging if i were to look at the charts there would be a skinny elongated finger of the azores high tilted at a 45 degree angle creeping its way into southern england and then the pig flow on its northwestern flank smothering western ireland with the 10/15 degree 850 isotherm before its all pushed away in a few days and were back into the green slosh.So thats the S**t SHOW THAT WAS SUMMER 24 WRAPPED UP.

I often think August and September can be opposites of each other. Many recent yrs we have seen poor August's followed by warm summerlike Septembers. August 2022 was among the better August's recently and was followed by a washout September. This yr I will not be surprised if August is the best month of this summer, which I know isn't saying much but could be one of the more better August's compared to many recently. Which if turns out to be the case might mean a more Autumnal type of September. Not very scientific but just my thoughts.

I've have known some January's Gonzo to outclass this June & July. Very low bar

Looking at the ECM it does seem like temps are going to improve somewhat come the weekend although Saturday looks showery with Sunday being quite a nice day. Early signs for next week seem somewhat encouraging also.

and could flip again! Live and hope!

What's current models looking like ? Surely there are signs of change and get us out of this stubborn pattern

Tonight and Wednesday morning were promised dry on Monday. Where did all this rain come from? Up to 82mm now. Currently the wettest month since April.

According to ME "Becoming unsettled after Sunday as an Atlantic regime takes over" hopefully not

Yikes, GFS is a horror show, a few days of ridging, then non stop low pressure out to the 9th August, its the same pattern since the 1st of June or so. Temps probably up a bit, but plenty of wind and rain likely.

It feels like the same pattern since last September really, no sustained break in based on my anecdotal memory of the year (stats may prove me wrong on that).