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?????? v Trump (and one or two others) The US Presidential election 2024. Read OP before posting

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,263 ✭✭✭✭Frank Bullitt


    JD wins the prize as top boot licker then.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 432 ✭✭bewareofthedog


    You know the political environment is toxic when people will throw away dignity and change their entire belief system on a whim to get ahead. Total yes man who'll bend over backwards for Trump, say what you want about Pence he had integrity by the bucketload compared to this guy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,711 ✭✭✭ceadaoin.


    The president of the biggest union in the US just spoke at the RNC there, praising members of the Republican party. This seems unprecedented



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,047 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    How many US politicians have been attacked in politically motivated attacks the last five years? As opposed to the Slovak prime minister getting shot (but survived) earlier this year (which I presume was politically motivated), the former Japanese PM getting shot and killed a year ago at a campaign rally, a British MP getting stabbed to death by a Jihadist five years after a second MP was stabbed to death by a white supremacist, there was that German regional administrator shot in the face on the matter of immigration…

    As far as his match-up against Harris in a debate… I don't know too much about Vance, it must be said, but the man has two undergraduate degrees and a law degree from Yale, so he's presumably smart. He was a Marine, and is from the more rural part of the world before becoming an apparently successful businessman, so arguably a little more in touch with a lot of the "common folk" than Harris. Is apparently pro-union. The only part of him which somewhat concerns me is that he's against continued aid for Ukraine. Things like his position on abortion are pretty irrelevant given that the Presidential side can't actually do very much on that subject. If he gets in the oval office, somehow, though, foreign policy is absolutely in the wheelhouse.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,570 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    He really is a gift for the Democrats. If they had to pick a running mate for Trump it would have been him.

    Massive own goal who will just turn off the Independent voters Trump needs.

    Also what sort of lad runs on a ticket with a guy he labelled "Americas Hitler".

    What an absolute snake.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,093 ✭✭✭✭Beechwoodspark


    Have to hand it to Trump, he really knows how to work a crowd and play to the cameras - the Americans are lapping this up and loving it - some are saying it was divine intervention that kept DJT save on Saturday !!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,570 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    The president of the biggest union in the US just spoke at the RNC there, praising members of the Republican party. This seems unprecedented

    Not really, he will also speak at the Democratic Convention next month. He is hedging his bets and using what leverage he has.

    If he endorses Trump, it will be very little to do with what is best for members and he won't last very long in that position.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,093 ✭✭✭✭Beechwoodspark


    Boys oh Boys

    Biden has some mountain to climb ahead of him if he wants to beat Trump now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,101 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Okay, but VP pick ultimately doesn't mean much to independents. They'll swing to Trump because "Biden has dementia" or because Trump "looked cool" after the assassination attempt or whatever base reason it's really not much more cerebral than that.

    It reminds me of 2016, when warning signs were flashing and commentators were discussing the finer details of Clinton's policies and political record - when in reality a large blob of swing voters just saw "A woman can't be president, she has weird expressions and something something email".



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,570 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    Why do you think Biden picked a female and "woman of color"?

    Trump needs independent thinking educated women, they ain't voting for the likes of Vance who will deny their daughters the same level of health care they grew up with.

    Remember the vast majority of the battleground states overwhelming support women's rights to reproductive health.

    While nothing seems to harm Trump, they will go after Vance which they did 5 minutes after he was announced.

    It's a horrendous pick for VP and gives the democrats a target they can harm publically.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,093 ✭✭✭✭Beechwoodspark


    RTE had an analyst on saying Vance was a good pick for a number of reasons - one of which was that JD Vance will lock in the “rust belt” states



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,781 ✭✭✭Flaneur OBrien


    JD Vance's very public anti-abortion stance will hurt them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,101 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    That's the kicker, Trump doesn't need a "woman of color" as VP. Any other candidate in his situation? Sure. But Trump bucks all that.

    People need to throw any all the manuals at this stage, especially the Dems, they are sleeping walking into a loss.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,570 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    The manual remains the same, Trump can't win the election with just his base, neither can Biden.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,570 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    That and the fact he parrots Kremlin talking points.

    If someone had told me growing up we would have Russian Sympathisers running for POTUS I would have suggested one needs help.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,101 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    I disagree. The manual stipulates don't change your incumbent, the Dem's have to change. The manual says X and Y for VP - nope doesn't matter to Trump. He could run a KKK member.

    A good analogy is Trump (truth social) stock, by all financial definitions it should be almost worthless now, however it isn't. Why? Because it doesn't follow normal rules of logic.

    If the election were held tomorrow, Trump has it. People can get into all this analysis of swing voters and independents - doesn't mean anything, enough would go for him at this juncture and we all know it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,570 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    A good analogy is Trump (truth social) stock, by all financial definitions it should be almost worthless now, however it isn't. Why? Because it doesn't follow normal rules of logic.

    It's an inflated fake price.

    It has about 2 millions users.

    I watch lads on YouTube doing basic DIY that have more subscribers.

    The reality is their is less conservatives then there was in 2016 and a high portion of those are never Trumpers. We just had one who tried to kill him.

    I read a stat the other day that pointed out 20 million voters in 2016 have since died and replaced with 32 million younger voters. Trumps base has shrunk.

    If the election was tomorrow and you gave me a grand to bet, I'd hedge it on both.

    Polls will narrow if the Democrats manage to get the key issues out there and Biden of course doesn't have a stroke mid sentence.

    The reality is the candidates are not being changed now barring something spectacular happening.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,318 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Americans were largely led to hate or distrust Communism/Socialism, and this still holds in most cases because 'Marxist' is still being used by a political slur among the American right. Time was that these words were synonymous with the Russians, but this is no longer true, of course. Now, Russia is an openly authoritarian oligarchy with an ascendant ethnic group (Russian) where the other groups know their place, all under a 'strongman' with supreme control over the various instruments of state. Far from the state atheism of the past, the government is now hand in glove with the Orthodox church as well. It's a really appealing model to the MAGA types, hence the much warmer feelings toward Russia these days.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,098 ✭✭✭JVince


    It looks like the democrats are almost accepting that they can't win after the attempted assassination of Trump. My guess is he Trump also has a new "PR" team who are managing him better and winning over the fence sitters.

    Therefore, rather than be seen as the person who lost to Trump, Harris, Newsom & Whitmer are all looking to 2028 at this point when Trump will be out of the picture.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,570 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    It's a really appealing model to the MAGA types

    But they are not traditional conservative Republicans, the majority who would still more align with Biden on Russia particularly when it comes to Ukraine and not the new VP pick of "Americas Hitler".



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,318 ✭✭✭✭briany


    It doesn't really matter that they're not traditional Republicans. They are now the Republican party. I don't know where these traditional Republicans have gone - died out, become MAGA, become apolitical or started voting Democrat - maybe a bit of each, but they're not a factor.

    If it had been explained to your younger self that the Russians would drop Communism and become a quasi-dictatorial crony capitalist oligarchy with supremacy of one religion and ethnic group over the others, maybe you might have said that the American Republicans warming up to them a bit made some sense.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,570 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    maybe a bit of each, but they're not a factor.

    They most certainly are.

    For instance almost 50% of Haley voters stated they would never vote for Trump.

    In a pool that has shrank that is a factor.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,318 ✭✭✭✭briany


    I don't think Trump is losing sleep over 50 percent of the 20-30 percent she got in some of those primaries not voting for him. I seem to recall he said something to that effect, but I'd have to find the quote. He seems confident that he has got the numbers.

    Anyway, if all these disgruntled traditional Republicans are out there, then by all means they should make their voices heard. They have not done so in the Republican primaries where Trump walked it and it doesn't look like they're going to show up against Trump in November either in those states where the outcome is still unsure.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,570 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    Trump walked it and it doesn't look like they're going to show up against Trump in November either in those states where the outcome is still unsure.

    That is the issue, Trump cannot afford for what was traditionally the Republican base not to show up in a national election or worse vote for someone else.

    It's basic maths.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,291 ✭✭✭hoodie6029


    MAGA’s messiah dodged a bullet. Kiss goodbye to any environmental protection, workers rights, regulation of any kind.
    Project 2025 to create a theocratic state.
    I don’t think anything can stop him now, unfortunately.
    I don’t understand how ordinary people can’t see that he and his party are just out to enrich themselves but screwing and stealing from them.

    This is water. Inspiring speech by David Foster Wallace https://youtu.be/DCbGM4mqEVw?si=GS5uDvegp6Er1EOG



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,781 ✭✭✭Flaneur OBrien


    Lets not forget, he was confident he had the numbers for 2020 (and still is).

    The one thing I will agree with is, Trump is confident of winning. Even when he loses, he still thinks he won.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,123 ✭✭✭✭Snake Plisken


    Yeah the internal push to have Biden replaced as candidate has all but stopped after the assassination attempt. They probably figure it's not winnable at this stage



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,739 ✭✭✭20silkcut


    I saw somewhere that statistically the US president is the most dangerous job in the world. 4 out of 46 have been assassinated in office. Not to mention the attempts on Gerald ford and Reagan or the Bobby Kennedy assassination while running for president. Fair to say it’s an extremely dangerous job. And an attempt like this one on Trump was long overdue considering 1981 is well over 40 years ago



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,101 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    I agree with your points on paper, but America is not in that realm anymore

    The average American voter who can't decide whether or not to vote for Trump is not a smart or savvy person. They'll vote with their gut, who do you think is really reaching those voters right now? A guy who seems like he has dementia, or a man who was holding his fist up during an assassination attempt?

    Trump can be a bigot, a liar, a sex offender, a felon, a racist - none of it means anything when it comes to that all important margin because "Biden is old", or "Harris who?"

    I've heard so many off the cuff comments from people that all the Dems need to do is wheel out "a middle aged tall white man with a full head of hair". Can laugh but at this stage they aren't wrong.

    If we want to play the numbers game, Clinton was decently ahead in polling average all the way up to election day. Biden is on average 2 points behind, when more polls come out this week he'll be 4 points behind.

    If the Dems keep on their current out-of-touch course, it's Trump's election to lose. He doesn't even have to do anything, he can drop the next debate without consequence and can quip that he "has it won and can't understand what the hell the other guy is saying".



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,570 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    Nah. Biden has a had a pretty horrendous few weeks and even still the polls are not that far apart.

    The reality is that the majority of Americans do not want the chaos or detrimental effects of another Trump presidency.

    This is not over by a long shot.

    If we want to play the numbers game, Clinton was decently ahead in polling average all the way up to election day. Biden is on average 2 points behind, when more polls come out this week he'll be 4 points behind.

    Trust is one of the key issues that make up a voters mind, Clinton didn't have it when came to it.

    Biden does.

    But essentially what you have proved is polling can be deceiving.



This discussion has been closed.
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