Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

I don't it's anywhere near demand, and that won't change short of something happening outside of Ireland to arrest the population rise here. I can't see what that would be.

Besides this, even if a crash is on the way, it may not arrive for years. Housing isn't like bitcoin or shares. For most of us, it's not an asset at all; it's a place to live. I bought in 2022 because waiting for me wasn't an option.

Thats all true, but theres one other very fundamental fact of the current Irish property market.

The population of Ireland is increasing by 100k+ per year. While we're building approx 32k housing units per year. And the average numbers of humans in a housing unit in Ireland is 2.7, and falling.

On top of that yearly worsening of the problem we already have a deficit of circa 250k housing units, and need thousands of units per year to replace existing older stock.

We're not building enough homes (approx 40k required) just to house the yearly population growth, nevermind anything else.

We're never going to have a crash (or even mild drop, or even price stabilization) while the population growth is so much higher than the housing unit completions.

thats why i put a time limit on the stupidity

at least with covid we were staring into an unknown, potential financial disaster, made some sense

people just can't get their heads around the simple fact that prices aint going to fall in such a tight market

new housing is more expensive than the existing stock and thats the only source of new supply, even the prices of second hand houses is just covering the real costs when everyone is putting 100k plus into these houses.

Focusing on the size of the housing deficit is rather irrelevant given the more glaring population growth issue. It could be a deficit of 5k, or 500k, but either way we're not reducing it by a single house every year at present.

Our natural population growth is approx 30k per year just from births over deaths, thats not going to change any time soon. We're projected to take in 30k asylum seekers this year. That number is also unlikely to go down, given the global push factors (climate change, easier access to travel, rapid population growth in the source countries) or pull factors (our government's proven inability to control the borders, people like Roderic O'Gorman literally telling people to come here, none of the 6 major political parties currently having an anti-immigration platform).

Those two sources by themselves are a population growth of circa 60k a year, or enough to take up approx 25k new housing units a year. ie the vast majority of what we're building.

The remainder of the population growth (40k~) is down to legal migration, which is admittedly the most fluid yes. If we had a major economic crash that resulted in high employment it would likely collapse. But we've had a total of one of them in the past 30+ years, and the state is currently banking billions of euros a year into a stability fund because it can't spend whats coming in fast enough - a level of financial surplus unheard of in Irish history. So I personally would not be betting on an economic crash big enough to destroy the economy any time soon anyway, were I a renter debating if it was the "right time to buy" and hoping for a substantial downwards price correction.

Supply alone cannot increase or decrease prices. This is why I think it can be reckless to state, unqualified, that purely due to demand far outweighing supply, that prices won't drop. What good is massive immigration if those immigrants are not working in FANNG, Pharma or Finance jobs and they are earning only average salaries (which is probably the case in the last two years as MNCs have cut back on new hires)? Supply might be low in general but within components of the housing market, supply might actually be picking up as the demand within that component could be falling versus the supply increasing).

For one, people need access to the money in order to pay high house prices; it could be the most depressed housing market in living memory for supply of homes and yet prices could be falling because people can't afford to pay the prices. The government is spinning plates with all the different schemes that aim to horse first-time buyers into the market and today it was written in the news about asking prices rocketing again that the CBI has been the cause of this via its increase to the leverage permitted for FTBs.

My own search alert was for north Wicklow within a price range of €400-600k and it is getting a good level of hits recently for second hand homes which are most likely to be FTB homes. I think that supply versus demand might be shifting as the pool of FTBs with €40-60k in savings is potentially dwindling for homes outside of Dublin. However, for people looking to trade up in SoCoDu, with a budget of €700k-1m, demand is definitely outstripping supply!

Some crackers in that thread. Those poor people who were forced to buy in 2017!!

’My heart goes out to people that seemingly have no choice but to buy now, or have bought recently. The best advice I can give is ignore all of it and make alternative plans, live your life and be ready for when homes become affordable (like at least 50% of what they are now).

Timing is EVERYTHING.’

perhaps with FTBs maxing out what they can borrow now is the time to up the CB income lending limits again to help increase prices further and get more sellers to sell their houses

isnt that the government policy drive up house prices to increase supply

https://m.independent.ie/opinion/editorial/editorial-house-price-reality-bites-and-differs-greatly-from-buyers-affordability/a288278320.html

You are totally incorrect

That is entirely what is driving the prices up

This is why the interest rates didn't do diddly

The numbers of houses for sale are so low that it is the high earners who are pushing out the others

That's all you hear, I was outbid by 70k

This is what drives the gentrification of the **** areas, no one is looking to live there, they have no options

If you can do it, do it. No point trying to time the market for a place you're going to live in, that's not a speculative investment or second home.

The nightmares of the 07/08 crash and subsequent years seem to be ingrained in people.

But you must remember, many 1)were given massive mortgages that did not match any kind of strict salary/stress test rules and 2) people were getting letters in the door (and availed of) mortgages for 2nd and 3rd properties.

If you're buying a house to live in, and nothing else, timing doesn't matter. What about people bought in 2007, kicked themselves in 08,09,10 etc, "timing it wrong" but actually, are back in positive equity now, 15 years into paying off their mortgage, and haven't spent that time renting?

The few years they spent giving out to themselves was a psychological, on paper loss, but they're in healthy financial positions now.

Add in this one too for 557K allegedly. Cabra where the local boozer has boarded up windows and dodging bullets and yet people are bidding 557K. Bizarre.

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/terraced-house-14-annamoe-drive-cabra-dublin-7/5758164