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Boards weather forecast contest June 2024

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 756 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Oak Park 23.3 yesterday.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,550 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    Phoenix Park looks like it has exceeded 25c

    image.png

    www.weatheire.com



  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,892 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    I think PP managed 26.5c earlier. We will find out tomorrow!

    Edit: 26.7c I hear.

    Post edited by DOCARCH on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,003 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday dry, 12/23 … if today stays dry, 13/24.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,446 ✭✭✭pauldry


    I found 25.7c for PP. Maybe it should read 26.7c.

    Dublin Airport 25.6c



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,446 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Screenshot_20240624_195552_Chrome.jpg

    Wait it's over 26c on this table.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,550 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)




  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,892 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    26.7c I believe. Wouldn't trust RTE!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 756 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Phoenix Park shows 26.6 for yesterday on Met.ie

    Another dry day at the Airport.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,003 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    13/24 dry now … IMT is up to 12.8 after a couple of warm days.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,003 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Report for 25 June (Dub A) is "dry" (trace) — 14/25 now.

    It was not dry at PP or Casement, would say it offsets the 0.1 "not dry" day earlier, I wasn't there but it looked like a damp drizzly sort of day … several "not dry" days have been largely dry. Overall I believe 14/25 is a fair reflection of what has been a rather dry June in general. It's possible PRC will be below all forecasts (I was driest at 70%). Could be a small hammer situation developing for PRC scoring or just straight minimum progression.

    At present, PRC at contest locations is around 50% (of full June values, closer to 65% of 1-25 June), so with a few showery days ahead, it could well finish at or below 70%. The bonus question is likely to end up around 16/30, I think.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,003 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Dry days total 15/27 (26 June dry at "trace" and over 2 mm on reports already today so we can safely say not dry for 27 June) … 28 and 29 June also looking to escape being dry, so it leaves iffy situation on 30 June to determine total of 15 or 16. Will score bonus at 10 for correct and minus 1 for departures so it will likely range from 3 or 4 to 10. Any suggestions for July bonus question? I will post July contest Friday evening my time, Saturday early morning your time.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,446 ✭✭✭pauldry


    July bonus no of "wet" days at Dublin Airport lol



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,795 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    Suggestion for July bonus - what station will report the highest temp?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,550 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    The number of days where one synoptic station has recorded 10mm plus

    www.weatheire.com



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,103 ✭✭✭mr.stonewall


    Max gust recorded for July??



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,003 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Will go with location of highest July temperature, some of the other questions could be good for a wetter month.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,003 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After four weeks …

    IMT_ 13.1 _ 0.5 below normal (fourth week 15.6, 1.1 above normal). 13.2 is estimated result.

    MAX _ 26.6

    MIN _ 1.8

    PRC _ 60% of normal (fourth week 37% of normal). 65% is estimated result.

    SUN _ 102% of normal (fourth week 66% of normal).100%is estimated result.

    Dry days _ 16/28 (16/29 after today)—odds favour 17/30 but not a sure thing.


    Will post early look at scoring on Sunday …



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,003 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    IMT was 13.1, PRC looks to be around 66%, SUN probably a bit under 100% and 29, 30 June were dry (trace amounts) at Dub (A) for a final total of 17/30.

    Will work on scoring later, in any case I need to confirm various details tomorrow.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,003 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Scoring for June 2024

    FORECASTER ___________IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__ BONUS __ TOTALS

    Mr Stonewall ___________ 18 _ 14 _ 17 _ 09^_ 08 __ 09 _____ 75

    M.T. Cranium ___________ 14 _ 11 _ 19 _ 15^_ 05 __ 06 _____ 70

    MrSkinner ______________11 _ 14 _ 14 _ 09^_ 10 __ 08 _____ 66

    DOCARCH _____________ 18 _ 15 _ 11 _ 06^_ 09 __ 07 _____ 66

    ___NormaL ____________ 20 _ 09 _ 18 _ 04^_ 10 __ 05 _____ 66

    Jpmarn ________________14 _ 19 _ 13 _ 02^_ 08 __ 08 _____ 64

    Esposito _______________23 _ 12 _ 08 _ 04^_ 09 __ 07 _____ 63

    waterways _____________07 _ 18 _ 08 _ 11^_ 09 __ 10 _____ 63

    ___Consensus __________10 _ 19 _ 07 _ 09^_ 10 __ 08 _____ 63

    Pauldry ________________12 _ 09 _ 11 _ 14^_ 07 __ 09 _____ 62

    Rameire _______________06 _ 09 _ 17 _ 09^_ 10 __ 09 _____ 60

    WolfeEire ______________ 15 _ 18 _ 00 _ 10^_ 08 __ 07 _____ 58

    john mac ______________ 12 _ 15 _ 07 _ 05^_ 09 __ 09 _____ 57

    Tae laidir ______________ 09 _ 19 _ 06 _ 07^_ 09 __ 02 _____ 52

    Appledrop _____________ 16 _ 13 _ 07 _ 01^_ 09 __ 05 _____ 51

    Adam240610 __ (-1) _____06 _ 00 _ 15 _ 13^_ 08 __ 09 _51-1=50

    Kindred Spirit ___________06 _ 13 _ 03 _ 13^_ 07 __ 08 _____ 50

    Dasa29 ________________01 _ 16 _ 08 _ 09^_ 06 __ 09 _____ 49

    Cornerstonelad __________00 _ 16 _ 03 _ 14^_ 05 __ 10 _____ 48

    Sunflower3 ____________ 08 _ 00 _ 13 _ 09^_ 09 __ 08 _____ 47

    Dacogawa _____________ 08 _ 15 _ 05 _ 04^_ 10 __ 05 _____ 47

    sryanbruen _____________10 _ 12 _ 07 _ 05^_ 09 __ 04 _____ 47

    Bsal __________________ 08 _ 03 _ 05 _ 14^_ 08 __ 08 _____ 46

    Artane2002 ____________ 13 _ 08 _ 05 _ 04^_ 09 __ 06 _____ 45

    Gonzo ________________ 08 _ 16 _ 02 _ 03^_ 08 __ 03 _____ 40

    Joe Public ______________04 _ 00 _ 15 _ 05^_ 09 __ 04 _____ 37

    200motels _____________ 09 _ 04 _ 04 _ 06^_ 08 __ 03 _____ 34

    ___________________

    ^ min progression applied to PRC … scores to be confirmed

    Notes: waterways was shown in wrong location in table of forecasts and is now in corrected location for 14.9 IMT; also, as noted earlier, Con Sensus MIN was 3.1 not 2.0 as shown in table of forecasts

    ===========

    Post edited by M.T. Cranium on


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,003 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    _ any changes to above table will be reflected here also _

    __ Updated Annual and Category scoring (Jan to June 2024) __

    Probably last time this will appear as one integrated table, after July I will also begin to s ow best 6/7 (en route to best 7/9 by Sep and countdown to best 10/12)

    Rank _FORECASTER _____IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN_BONUS_ TOTALS (Jan to June) _ Annual TOTAL

    now(prev) __ __ __ __ __ ___ ___ ___ ____ ____ ___ JAN_FEB_MAR_APR_MAY_JUN __ (2024)

    ......... max possible scores ..150_120_120_90_60_60 ___100_100_100_100_100_100 __ 600


    01_(02)__MrSkinner_____ 114 _62 _81 _65 _41 _47 ___ 64 _76 _78 _66 _60 _66 ___ 410

    02_(01)__Artane2002____ 114 _75 _74 _47 _45 _37 ___ 77 _48 _75 _68 _79 _45 ___ 392

    2.0_(5.7)__ Con Sensus ___103 _71 _66 _60 _46 _46 ___ 72 _48 _60 _90 _59 _63 ___ 392

    03_(03)__ Dacogawa ____ 109 _88 _54 _47 _48 _42 ___ 69 _64 _73 _74 _61 _47 ___ 388

    04_(t06)__Pauldry ______ 113 _62 _61 _64 _44 _42 ___ 75 _52 _64 _81 _52 _62 ___ 386

    05_(05) __ Kindred Spirit __99 _66 _76 _62 _38 _44 ___ 65 _53 _66 _85 _66 _50 ___ 385

    06_ (09)__M.T. Cranium__ 106 _49 _74 _57 _46 _46 ___ 55 _74 _67 _49 _63 _70 ___ 378

    t07_(04) __Gonzo _______117 _60 _73 _45 _41 _40 ___ 76 _71 _67 _58 _64 _40 ___ 376

    t07_(t06)__Tae laidir _____106 _80 _60 _57 _38 _35 ___ 65 _51 _73 _67 _68 _52 ___ 376

    09 _(08) _ Appledrop _____110 _69 _61 _39 _51 _43 ___ 72 _56 _66 _75 _53 _51 ___ 373

    10_ (15)_Mr stonewall _____98 _75 _62 _38 _40 _39 ___ 66 _57 _40 _64 _50 _75 ___ 352

    11_(10)__sryanbruen _____ 91 _63 _60 _54 _47 _32 ___ 89 _38 _44 _70 _59 _47 ___ 347

    12_(13)__Jpmarn ________ 86 _82 _61 _39 _38 _38 ___ 78 _40 _61 _66 _35 _64 ___ 344

    13_(12)__WolfeEire ______102 _62 _51 _52 _38 _36 ___ 68 _39 _37 _75 _62 _58 _ 341-2 = 339

    14_(14)__Rameire ________87 _39 _49 _68 _49 _46 ___ 50 _43 _58 _83 _44 _60 ___ 338

    15_(11)__Bsal ___________97 _23 _71 _53 _44 _44 ___ 59 _38 _70 _77 _42 _46 ___ 332

    16_(t17)__john mac______107 _33 _66 _41 _43 _40 ___ 67 _51 _59 _51 _45 _57 ___ 330

    16.4_(19.7) ____NormaL ___ 85 _54 _64 _43 _46 _34 ___ 74 _52 _46 _54 _34 _66 ___ 326

    t17_(16)_Sunflower3 ______98 _38 _45 _48 _47 _45 ___ 52 _44 _48 _75 _55 _47 ___ 321

    t17(t17)_Cornerstonelad ___ 76 _73 _54 _50 _24 _44 ___ 59 _29 _49 _83 _53 _48 ___ 321

    19_(19)__Dasa29 _________81 _38 _60 _52 _39 _50 ___ 41 _50 _78 _71 _31 _49 ___ 320

    t20_(20)__waterways _____ 97 _34 _51 _54 _39 _44 ___ 64 _55 _47 _48 _42 _63 ___ 319

    t20_(t21)_DOCARCH ______ 88 _39 _58 _50 _44 _40 ___ 49 _51 _44 _80 _29 _66 ___ 319

    t21_(t21)_Joe Public_______ 92 _47 _50 _37 _44 _20 ___ 56 _34 _51 _58 _54 _37 ___ 290

    23 _(23)__Adam240610 ____84 _34 _54 _44 _43 _34 ___ 75 _58 _46 _—-_ 63 _50 _ 293-1=292 (5/6)

    24_(25)__200motels _______72 _42 _37 _30 _33 _13 ___ 66 _-- _58 _69 _—- _34 ___ 227 (4/6)

    25t (24)__Tazio ___________69 _36 _29 _31 _24 _20 ___ 57 _62 _44 _46 _—-_—- _ 209-2=207 (4/6)

    25t (26)__Esposito ________ 71 _26 _29 _25 _32 _24 ___ 71 _34 _39 _—- _—-_63 ___ 207 (4/6)

    27_(27)__SleetandSnow ____21 _08 _02 _13 _06 _06 ___56 _--- _--- _—-_—-__ 056 (1/6)

    28_(28)__Bazlers _________ 09 _00 _00 _13 _07 _04 ___33 _--- _--- _—-_—-__ 033 (1/6)

    29_(29)__BLIZZARD7 ______03 _00 _00 _11 _09 _05 ___26 _--- _--- _—- _—- _ 028-2 026 (1/6)

    ___________________

    ________________

    Note: Late penalties are applied to total category scoring and are incorporated into monthly scores.

    In category scoring, high score is bold, second is bold italic, and third is plain italic font.

    IMT __ one forecaster in first, two tied for second, so third not awarded.

    MAX __one forecaster score in each position (1,2,3).

    MIN __one forecaster score in first, one in second, and two tied for third.

    PRC __one forecaster score in each position (1,2,3).

    SUN __one forecaster in first, one in second, and two tied third (Con Sensus is also tied third).

    bonus _one forecaster score in each position (1,2,3).

    ======================================

    Note: total of best category scores is 455/600.

    ___________________________



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 756 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    That'll be the last time I propose a Bonus question!!!!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,003 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Scoring is confirmed, PRC was 65% and SUN 100%. (rest of data 13.1 _ 26.6 _ 1.8 _ 065 _ 100 ___ 17/30).

    Congrats to Stonewall for winning score in June, and Skinner back in lead of annual scoring, Artane2002 now second.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,103 ✭✭✭mr.stonewall


    Thanks MTC. Bit of a lucky guess. Once that artic air set in it's hard to move and it has a serious drying effect bit like those easterly winds in April, they hang around for a while. Similar on the rainfall we had to catch a break on it after the past 12 months. One thing I noticed on the farm was how quick streams and drains slowed in the flow of water.

    Thanks again for running this competition, it's appreciated



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