Boards weather forecast contest June 2024

M.T. Cranium

Usual five questions plus bonus … June monthly average 13.6 C.

I am having issues with Boards with block copying of data (note mess of last effort to post a contest thread starter) so for now relying on your recall to place five questions in usual order.

BONUS is based on suggestion in April from tae laidir (IIRC) and asks you to predict number of totally dry days for Dub(A) in June.

We will define dry as trace or zero, and non-dry as any numerical amount. If our field of entries looks more similar to days of .01 or .02 at end of month, that will influence how I score this question.

Just for starters, I will predict as follows:

14.2 _ 27.5 _ 1.7 _ 070 _ 125 __ 13 days

will work out values for normal later, I think 10-12 dry days would be about average but I will try to find out.

In case I don't get anywhere with that, Normal could be 13.6 _ 25.5 _ 2.0 _ 100 _ 100 _ 11

There are often "trace" amounts just from morning dew or one or two random raindrops so I will go with climatology convention and include trace in dry day total. I'm sure there will be a few nuisance 0.01 to 0.20 mm values but again, going with convention those count as non-dry even if "wet" would be inaccurate as a description.

Jpmarn

Definition of a dry day I presume should have a daily rainfall total of 0.2mm or less.

pauldry

Pauldry- 14.4 _ 25.5 _ 2.7 _ 078_ 116 __ 16 days

In case I forget

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 15.0 ___ 27.3 ___ 3.5 ___ 80 ___ 114 ____ 19

sryanbruen

sryanbruen ________ 14.6 ___ 25.8 ___ 3.1 ___ 110 ___ 95 ___ 11

Artane2002

Artane2002 ________ 14.3 ___ 25.4 ___ 3.3 ___ 115 ___ 95 ___ 13

Cornerstonelad

Cornerstonelad ___16___27____3.5____075____126____17

dasa29

Dasa29 ________ 15.5 ___ 27.0 ___ 3.0 ___ 90 ___ 120 ___ 16

Bsal

Bsal________ 14.8 ___ 24.9 ___ 3.3 ___ 75 ___ 112 ___ 15

M.T. Cranium

I looked into "dry day" frequency and found data for Dub (A) stating average (1991-2020) is 15 days each way (> 0.2 mm ), no data available for marginal cases of frequency of trace or 0.1. As I plan to count only days with zero or trace reports, I believe the 15-15 split is consistent with a "normal" of 11 or 12 days of entirely dry days. So adjust any predictions if you used a different concept, the contest count will be trace or zero amounts only. I hope it won't make a big difference to outcome.

DOCARCH

DOCARCH ________ 13.8 ___ 26.1 ___ 2.7 ___ 105 ___ 95 ___ 14

esposito

Esposito ________ 13.3___ 25.8 ___ 3.0 ___ 115 ___ 95 ___ 14

mr.stonewall

Mr Stonewall_____13.8___27.2___1.5____90____110____16

sunflower3

Sunflower3______14.8 _ 29.0 _ 2.5_ 090 _ 105 __ 15 days

waterways

waterways ______ 14.9 ___ 26.8 ___ 3.0 ___ 85 ___ 105 ____ 17

WolfeEire

Wolfeeire________14.1 _ 26.8 _ 3.9 _ 088_ 110 __ 14 days

Gonzo

Gonzo ________ 14.8 ___ 26.2 ___ 3.6 ___ 117 ___ 92 ___ 10 days

mrskinner

skinner___14.5___26___2.4___92___102___19

Tae laidir

Tae laidir_______ 14.7 ___ 26.7 ___ 3.2 ___ 100 ___ 105 ___9

dacogawa

Dacogawa _____ 14.8 __ 27.1 __ 3.3 __ 115 __ 98 __ 12 Days

appledrop

Appledrop 14.0___27.3___3.1___122___95___12 days

Jpmarn

Jpmarn. 14.2 _ 26.5 _ 2.5 _ 120 _90_ 15

Joe Public

joe public 15.2 _ 28.7 _ 1.3 _ 110 _ 95 __ 11 days

200motels

200motels 14.7 ___ 25 ___ 3.4 ___ 107___ 92 ___ 10

John mac

john mac ________ 14.4 ___ 26.1 ___ 3.1 ___ 110 ___ 95 ___ 18

rameire

Rameire ________ 15.0 ___ 25.5 ___ 1.5 ___ 90 ___ 100 ___ 18

adam240610

Adam240610__15 _ 28.9 _ 1.3 _ 80 _ 111 __ 16 days

I'm awful for remembering this on the 31st

Mod Note: I edited your temperature to be 28.9C and not 289C!

M.T. Cranium

Day one is dry (trace).

min 3.6 C

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for June 2024

FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ dry days Dub(A)

Cornerstonelad __________16.0 _ 27.0 _ 3.5 _ 075 _ 126 ___ 17

Dasa29 ________________15.5 _ 27.0 _ 3.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 16

Joe Public ______________15.2 _ 28.7 _ 1.3 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 11

Adam240610 __ (-1) _____15.0 _ 28.9 _ 1.3 _ 080 _ 111 ___ 16

Kindred Spirit ___________15.0 _ 27.3 _ 3.5 _ 080 _ 114 ___ 19

Rameire _______________15.0 _ 25.5 _ 1.5 _ 090 _ 100 ___ 18

Sunflower3 ____________ 14.8 _ 29.0 _ 2.5 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 15

Dacogawa _____________ 14.8 _ 27.1 _ 3.3 _ 115 _ 098 ___ 12

Gonzo ________________ 14.8 _ 26.2 _ 3.6 _ 117 _ 092 ___ 10

Bsal __________________ 14.8 _ 24.9 _ 3.3 _ 075 _ 112 ___ 15

Tae laidir ______________ 14.7 _ 26.7 _ 3.2 _ 100 _ 105 ____ 9

200motels _____________ 14.7 _ 25.0 _ 3.4 _ 107 _ 092 ___ 10

sryanbruen _____________14.6 _ 25.8 _ 3.1 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 11

___Consensus __________ 14.6 _ 26.7 _ 2.0 _ 092 _ 100 ___ 15

MrSkinner ______________14.5 _ 26.0 _ 2.4 _ 092 _ 102 ___ 19

john mac ______________ 14.4 _ 26.1 _ 3.1 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 18

Pauldry ________________14.4 _ 25.5 _ 2.7 _ 078 _ 116 ___ 16

waterways _____________ 14.9 _ 26.8 _ 3.0 _ 085 _ 105 ___ 17

Artane2002 ____________ 14.3 _ 25.4 _ 3.3 _ 115 _ 095 ___ 13

M.T. Cranium ___________ 14.2 _ 27.5 _ 1.7 _ 070 _ 125 ___ 13

Jpmarn ________________14.2 _ 26.5 _ 2.5 _ 120 _ 090 ___ 15

WolfeEire ______________ 14.1 _ 26.8 _ 3.9 _ 088 _ 110 ___ 14

Appledrop _____________ 14.0 _ 27.3 _ 3.1 _ 122 _ 095 ___ 12

Mr Stonewall ___________ 13.8 _ 27.2 _ 1.5 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 16

DOCARCH _____________ 13.8 _ 26.1 _ 2.7 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 14

___NormaL ____________ 13.6 _ 25.5 _ 2.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 12….. ….. ….. ….. ….. Esposito _______________13.3 _ 25.8 _ 3.0 _ 115 _ 095 ___ 14

===============================

Consensus of forecasts, quite warm, a bit dry and near average sun.

Distribution of dry days forecast

19 _ 2

18 _ 2

17 _ 2

16 _ 4

15 _ 3

14 _ 3

13 _ 2

12 _ 2

11 _ 2

10 _ 2

09 _ 1

(Just to restate point about contest count, 0.1 mm will not count as dry in contest, if we get any 0.1 days, but I will keep track of impact on count … good luck and thanks again for suggestion on dry days.)

_____

note: seeing I am not only one getting the odd grey background on block copies, one appears in entries too, and as I copied your entries, I got one more but we'll see if it makes any appearance when I post (I got it copying john mac's entry).

(edit _ one odd posting detail, cannot get post to appear as typed for lowest portion (Esposito) so trying to fake it with dots)

M.T. Cranium

So far, 3/3 days at Dub (A) dry, all trace amounts so far.

appledrop

Today will be the 1st wet day at Dublin Airport.

M.T. Cranium

Just a side note, entries will soon close for 2024 N Atlantic tropical season contest (enter here but entries are from three different weather forums) … separate thread is open but you can post here, by end of week.

I note one hour of 0.2 mm at Dub (A) on 5 June, if that is daily total also, will count as "non-dry" even though quite a dry day otherwise. This is how met.ie counts also, according to 30-year normals, frequency entry is

>=0.2 mm

implying that 0.2 mm is not dry and 0.1 mm is considered dry by them (but if we get a 0.1 mm, it is going to be counted as non-dry also).

DOCARCH

Low of 4.0c at Knock and Mulligar yesterday.

Probably lower for today.

M.T. Cranium

3.6 already noted earlier.

DOCARCH

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122225327#Comment_122225327

Oh…yeah…missed that!

appledrop

Another 0.2mm of rain for 6th at D.A.

So that's 3 dry days and 3 days with some rain.

pauldry

3.5c in Mullingar last night. Potentially.

DOCARCH

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122230152#Comment_122230152

No data for Mullingar for yesterday so we may never know!

appledrop

It's confirmed now, 3.5 yesterday at Mullingar.

Tae laidir

Also only trace rainfall for Dub Airport yesterday, and looks like the same today.

M.T. Cranium

After first week …

IMT_ 12.1 (0.7 below normal)

MAX_ below 22 C

MIN_ 3.5 C

PRC_ 24% of normal

SUN_ 107% of normal

dry days Dub(A) _ 4 of 7

appledrop

Sat is actually counted as wet day at D.A with 0.8 rain.

It must have fell during the night as no rain during day here at all.

M.T. Cranium

4 of 9 dry days now, as Dub(A) recorded 1.6 mm past few hours. The 0.8 mm on Saturday was recorded in hours 07-08. A very cool air mass settling in across Ulster, temps widely below 10 C and over in Scotland generally around 7 C at low elevations, -1 to +1 C on peaks. Timing may not suit everyone but it's good to see a deep cold air mass on maps again (after quite an absence).

(later edit) _ 3 C at mtdillon around 03-04 … likely to be a new min.

appledrop

Min 2.5 confirmed at Mt Dillion.

M.T. Cranium

Will need to check again as 3 C hourlies at two locations last night also (Mountdillon and Gurteen).

Also, 10th dry (tr) so count is 5/10 now. Yesterday's IMT was only 10.9 and today looks to be about 11 also, after ten days it was 12.0 C. Fairly good sun values for such a cold interval.

M.T. Cranium

Now we have a MIN of 2 C at Claremorris (05h, 06h) to check.

Tae laidir

Mt.Dillon 2.4 for yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

According to one source, Clare… 1.8 C is new value. Also, 6/11 days dry (11 June trace).

M.T. Cranium

I was looking at our min forecasts and Con Sensus should be 3.1 C and not 2.0 C as shown, unsure how I came up with that. We have a few forecasts below 1.8 C.

DOCARCH

Claremorris 1.8c yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

I am seeing 1.8 for Claremorris on website, maybe an edit? … also dry on 12 at Dub (A) so 7/12 dry so far.