Advertisement
Help Keep Boards Alive. Support us by going ad free today. See here: https://subscriptions.boards.ie/.
If we do not hit our goal we will be forced to close the site.

Current status: https://keepboardsalive.com/

Annual subs are best for most impact. If you are still undecided on going Ad Free - you can also donate using the Paypal Donate option. All contribution helps. Thank you.
https://www.boards.ie/group/1878-subscribers-forum

Private Group for paid up members of Boards.ie. Join the club.

EU Elections 2024 - Results

1293032343550

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,189 ✭✭✭wazzzledazzle


    For arguments sake, hasn't this been done previously? Like very recently over in in the West



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,189 ✭✭✭wazzzledazzle


    Thank you. So basically a freeroll.

    Interesting.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 516 ✭✭✭pcasso


    DBN should return one TD for FF, FG, Sinn Fein and SD next time around if AOR doesn't run.

    FF seem to have a natural successor in Deidre Heney unless they parachute another Haughey .

    FG may have to come up with a more high profile candidate as Richard Bruton seem to generate a personal vote.

    Denise Mitchell isn't particularly high profile but should get returned

    Cian O Callaghan would look safe if AOR didn't run

    Labour would need a high profile candidate to replace AOR or else they will really struggle.

    David Healey for the Greens would have a good chance in that scenario.

    There is also a chance of an independent candidate getting in as it has a history with Finian McGrath previously a long standing TD.#

    Barry Hennigan had a good council vote and is endorsed by that stable so maybe him



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 15,010 ✭✭✭✭josip


    image.png

    After Count 10, Wallace continues to close the gap to Ni Mhurcu. But she will benefit more from the more established parties’ transfers later on and I don’t think she’s at risk.

    Does McNamara have similar views to Wallace/Daly on the Russian invasion of Ukraine? I see from an interview he said he’s for peace and that wars end through negotiation, very rarely through unconditional surrender.

    I’d be disappointed if we ended up replacing old-Wallace with new-Wallace.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 610 ✭✭✭StoutPost


    Nah. daly could direct her legal people to compel boards to provide what information they have about a poster.

    Besides, I post about her on Twitter under my real name and, sit down for the shock, I haven't been sued.

    The assessment is correct, she's not for "peace" she's all for surrendering others to the most hateful regimes of the world for reasons we may or may never discover.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,825 ✭✭✭Potatoeman


    The proof is from her own mouth. It’s in the linked article.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,189 ✭✭✭wazzzledazzle




  • Moderators, Education Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 11,775 Mod ✭✭✭✭artanevilla


    FG will probably run Naoise Ó Muirí with Catherine Noone as a running mate.

    Labour will struggle to find a strong candidate.

    John Lyons has a chance of getting the last seat, but if SF can hold their vote here, they have an outside chance of a 2nd seat but again, they've no strong candidates. Outside of Clontarf their vote was decent in the locals, but they just ran too many candidates (and not good ones).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 989 ✭✭✭The Phantom Jipper


    Is the case for Ni Mhurchu that she can expect to get a big FG transfer, or are there geographical factors at play in her favour with the upcoming eliminations? I'd have thought she'd be an underdog at this point with the transfers to come.



  • Administrators Posts: 55,575 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    I'm guessing Ní Mhúrchú's big boost will come when Mullins is eliminated.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,189 ✭✭✭wazzzledazzle


    Unless of course they give Lynn Boylan a run out for DBN…………



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 610 ✭✭✭StoutPost


    I'm not overly keen on him where Ukraine is concerned.



  • Moderators, Education Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 11,775 Mod ✭✭✭✭artanevilla


    She's from Tallaght. Can't see her being popular.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,189 ✭✭✭wazzzledazzle


    Hasn't she already run in about half a dozen differnt constituencies already without success? (i could be wrong) Maybe she's taking too many tips from the Boyfriend 😋



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 516 ✭✭✭pcasso


    Yes, Naoise O Muiri seems to be the most likely candidate for FG and I suspect he might get in ahead of Catherine Noone.

    John Lyons fate probably depends on SF strategy on how many candidates they run.

    Denise Mitchell transfers boosted his total considerably last election, which might not be available next time around if SF run two candidates. He is a transfer friendly candidate, has decent name recognition at this stage and so he should certainly be in with a shout. He sort of fulfils that independent criteria I previously mentioned too.

    I think there is a strong chance that AOR runs again for Labour if the election isn't within the next six months. He might feel there will be another chance of the Labour leadership in the offing by then



  • Moderators, Education Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 11,775 Mod ✭✭✭✭artanevilla


    She ran once in Kerry while she lived there and then once again in a by-election in Dublin South which is I believe her current home.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,823 ✭✭✭eightieschewbaccy


    There's credible reasons to believe she's in the pocket of foreign interests in the case of her Russia commentary. You seem to be using the thread to shutdown any criticisms of her. Regardless, she has acted as an apologist for a regime that is pursuing a genocidal agenda in Ukraine.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,161 ✭✭✭zerosquared


    She also acted as an apologist and voted for the interests of same regime which spent a decade bombing the **** out of Syria to support another brutal dictator

    A country which funnily enough contained millions of Palestinian refugees who got hit too, apparently some Palestinians are more equal than others in Daly’s eyes

    The same regime that threatens daily everyone here in Ireland and the world with Armageddon and tried (and failed) to wage an economic war on EU all while now being in third year of largest war started in Europe since WW2



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,600 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    This guy was predicting a second Shinner would take out AOR, even taking in SF's recent slide in the polls

    So running against a little'known Labourite you'd think SF would still be confident of a second seat..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 3,404 ✭✭✭Genghis


    The smart thing for Labour would be to give the seat to someone with some name recognition who might use it to grow their profile - in 5 years time it will be mostly forgotten how they got there. Its not as if Labour are a bastion of Euro elections - having done OK-ish to not lose any ground in the locals, its more important than ever that they retain as many TDs as they can.

    The thing to do, of course, is not announce this plan in the run in the GE. Peadar Toibin was plagued with that question and learnt the hard way that honesty is not always your best policy.

    He had been running with so low expectations of winning - I wonder was AOR ever even asked the question during the campaign - "are you going to resign your MEP seat when the General Election comes round?".



  • Advertisement
  • Administrators Posts: 55,575 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    When they transfer the votes, they distribute based on the highest preference for a candidate who has not already been elected or not already been eliminated.

    I am guessing a lot of people who voted Mullins will have given Kelly their 2nd preference. Kelly is already elected, so they will use the next highest preference. I am also going to guess that anyone who voted Mullins Kelly 1 and 2 is going to have had FF very high in their preference list when you look at who else is left.

    Ní Mhúrchú should get a lot of transfers from Mullins IMO.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,262 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Those prediction sites are, always have been, and always will be, appalling at anything beyond the big three. And with SFs current slide in support, quite possibly appalling beyond the big two.

    Pretty much all of them had Brendan Howlin losing his seat in 2016 and 2020. Elections in which he came 1st and 2nd.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 610 ✭✭✭StoutPost




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 174 ✭✭Steviemak7


    Most of her followers are probably russian bots feeding her Putin's propaganda on a daily basis



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 15,010 ✭✭✭✭josip


    McNamara did well that time around, Ni Mhurcu might survive another count in 5th place, I doubt if Aontu will transfer as heavily to Wallace as previous candidates.

    image.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,871 ✭✭✭Downlinz


    When your core voting demographic is 55+ you're not likely to pick up many social media followers.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,925 ✭✭✭Markus Antonius


    On glancing at the counts looks like the greens won't get a single seat in Europe.

    Bizarre given how many grown Irish men believe the climate is broken.

    Silver lining to labour's "success" is that we won't have to look at Aeioudhaeioun o'Raeiourdaeioun's smug feminist face for the next 5 years.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 989 ✭✭✭The Phantom Jipper


    I guess I'm thinking with Kelleher trundling along as he is, he might have a Barry Andrews style struggle to make the quota and soak up some votes that may have gone to Ni Mhurchu, particularly if he's still around when Mullins gets bumped. Will be interesting anyway!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,291 ✭✭✭hoodie6029


    No system is perfect. I’m not saying that they are but some modern assistance is worth exploring.
    At the last general election nearly 110,000 votes were spoiled. At this last election they are estimating about 70,000 were. While some were purposely spoiled, others would be through lack of understanding of the form, human error etc etc. that’s a lot of people disenfranchised, potentially changing the outcome of an election greatly where some form of electronic assistance would prevent that. That’s a good thing in my book.

    I know this was more of a whataboutery answer but this is a developing thought/idea in my head right now.

    This is water. Inspiring speech by David Foster Wallace https://youtu.be/DCbGM4mqEVw?si=GS5uDvegp6Er1EOG



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 21,038 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Eddie Punch will throw transfers her way when he is eliminated and push Kellehar nearer the quota. McNamara and Mullins will benefit from his exclusion. IMO by the time Mullins comes to be excluded Kelleher will be very near the quota he is about 20k short at present. Wallace transfer will start to dry up now. SD next then PPunchand Nessa Hourigan Labour. She will start to gain a bit of traction again

    Slava Ukrainii



Advertisement