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So "X" - nothing to see here. Elon's in control - Part XXX

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭eightieschewbaccy


    I'd suspect they've had a substantial drop in active users. And the big factor is it's impossible for them to keep up with innovations now as it's running on a shoe string with an owner that is toxic. On top of that, they're losing more money than ever before due to advertising revenue disappearing. Instead you've got a tiny fiscal stream from those who want to pay for verification.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,586 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    Twitter is valued in and around $15b today, a 65% write off of value since Musk completed his purchase. Simply existing is not good enough. I think the forthcoming election is maybe more of an Alamo event for this whole folly - if X can't regenerate significant traction during or after the event that meaningfully adds to its value, Musk may be forced to take the write off in value and move on.

    But you're right, leave all the political stuff to one side and just consider the value and / or consider the current ad spend and revenue generation landscape for X. When you consider the topic in an objective and dispassionate manner, the investment has gone very poorly indeed.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,392 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    How do you think your posts have any credibility with lines like: "That will continue to upset people who think that they know better than Musk and his investors."

    Given the staggering loss in value at Twitter since Musk got his hands on it?

    That's a lot of 'upset' people, given that is anyone with the ability to actually pay attention to what is going on.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭eightieschewbaccy


    It's sounding suspiciously like Tesla are in loads of trouble and Musk is trying to find people to blame. Worth remembering Obama and Biden are responsible for Tesla getting huge amounts of subsidies.

    https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/05/38910114/elon-musk-counts-amazing-president-joe-biden-among-tesla-naysayers-who-wish-to-see-the-ev-maker-



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,326 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    Going to repeat something I said before but reading above article made me laugh again with the mad quoted Musk Tweets as I don't view Twitter much.

    "Whoever controls the teleprompter is the real president!"

    Oh dear. I am just imaginging a world where he goes and says something like that about Xi Jinping on his platform and boosts it to his gazillion followers (would have to be by accident!)…speed records broken on agile use of any Undo/Delete option, so much abject kowtowing it bores a hole in the ground perhaps?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,536 ✭✭✭silliussoddius


    I'm more concerned about the fact that something like twitter is considered a teleprompter.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,532 ✭✭✭jmcc


    Ultimately, what you or I post here about Twitter/X doesn't matter. There are people who hate Musk for taking away what they thought was their space. It never was. They just provided content that could be monetised.

    Twitter/X is a very powerful marketing tool that manages to bypass the tradtional gatekeepers in the legacy media (broadcast and print). Trump, in 2016, realised that and used it effectively to dominate the news cycle. In the 2020 campaign, Trump was banned from Twitter and it removed one of his maiin ways of reaching voters.

    The importance of Twitter/X in terms of political influence seems to have been missed by those who complain about Musk and all the bad things he has done. Musk purchased political influence when he took over Twitter. The upcoming US presidential election is going to generate a lot of business for X. More importantly, with much of the pro-Democrat element in management having being removed, X could have a major effect on who becomes the next president of the USA.

    Regards…jmcc



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,720 ✭✭✭✭kowloon


    Do you reckon it'll generate enough business to restore the company to its pre-Musk buyout value? I can't see the likes of Bob Iger coming back to Musk begging to be allowed to advertise again and I don't think they're getting a cut of all the scams being run through the platform. Maybe he could sell… red checkmarks.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 29,533 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    The importance of Twitter/X has tanked since Musk took over. I still use it, but it is getting less and less useful and more and more actual people are leaving it. He has destroyed its financial value and its zeitgeist value.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭eightieschewbaccy


    You say it's gonna generate a lot of business but the reality is, advertisers have largely fled from the platform. So it'll just continue to be a disaster. On top of that, since Musk's takeover I'd suspect its overall reach has actually diminished.

    And in terms of Musk himself, all of his business decisions in the last few years have been atrocious. Tesla pursuing a cybertruck, firing the supercharger team, buying Twitter and Tesla's woes are only beginning IMHO. So assuming he bought Twitter to gain influence is suspect, he was forced into purchasing it is the reality.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,392 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Suggest you go back and re-read the post you replied to, because you seem to have replied to an entirely different post, and this tangenital mini essay only serves to underline your previous claim was without foundation.

    Multiple posters have pointed out to you how Musk overpaid for Twitter, how advertisers have fled the platform and its disastrous finacial results under Musk in lost value.

    Your claims for Musk's financial wisdom have zero credibility, foundation or merit - further demonstrated by your inability to respond to those points directly.

    Your fixation on "There are people who hate Musk for taking away what they thought was their space" seems to be blinding you to basic facts. That is errant strawman nonsense. They didn't make Musk overpay for Twitter. They didn't make Musk do all the stupid, counter productive things he has done to drive advertisers away. They didn't make him rebrand to X in an act of gigantic marketing folly.

    The different structure may well affect the US elections - but that is at the expense of its finances, let's not pretend otherwise, that would be an entirely bad faith argument or demonstrate total ignorance of Twitter's finances. And let's not pretend it is being done out of any free speech championing, as is disproved by Musk's actions on the platform, it would be an entirely bad faith argument.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,532 ✭✭✭jmcc


    In one election cycle? No.

    X also generates money from things other than advertising.

    https://developer.x.com/en/docs/twitter-api/getting-started/about-twitter-api

    Regards…jmcc



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭eightieschewbaccy


    Their API pricing has pretty much put off any platform utilizing them tbh, it's ridiculously expensive so I can't see it being particularly profitable. The reality is they're losing more money than pre acquisition and far less innovative in terms of technology.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,595 ✭✭✭francois


    Th api is so fooked it was serving up Nazi shìt alongside big brands. Of course they left. Nothing but drop-shoppers, crypto shills and pussy-in-bio spam now.

    Coke, Disney, Microsoft love nothing better then having that cùnt Fuentes in their threads



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,720 ✭✭✭✭kowloon


    So you think there's a long game being played?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,532 ✭✭✭jmcc




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,914 ✭✭✭✭ohnonotgmail


    Musk is playing 4D chess and us common oiks are too stupid to understand it. or so his supporters would have you believe.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,536 ✭✭✭silliussoddius


    He will end up winning this time next year, the same time he delivers full self driving.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭eightieschewbaccy


    In spite of the fact he was forced to purchase Twitter? Can you point to any credible source that indicates Twitter is improving under Musk? Eg via technologic improvements or increased revenue



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,532 ✭✭✭jmcc


    Twitter's earnings from advertising in 2023 were $3.4 billion.

    https://www.investing.com/academy/statistics/twitter-facts-statistics/

    Before Musk took it over, the company was listed and had to publish quarterly reports. Musk mentioned that the company was losing around $4 million a day. It led to a lot of job losses and cutbacks. The bot problem may be one of those that has been reduced. Users were lost to Mastodon. The loss of users was not enough to cause the demise of Twitter in a few days. When it comes to Twitter, credible sources are few and far between. Some of this is due to the reduction in published financial information but some of the media coverage seems extremely biased.

    The main thing that Musk had to do when he took over was to stem the losses. According to some of the coverage, Twitter was a mature company that was being run like a start-up (or non-profit according to Musk) complete with benefits for employees to keep them in a college-like environment. Much of this was stopped and a lot of these employees (I think that it was almost 80% of Twitter's workforce) were fired. Twitter still makes money from advertising and Musk's reduction of the operating costs of the business may have been the first step on a very long path.

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/elon-musk-twitter-tesla-cuts-profit-532dc0e3

    "The company has reduced its non-debt expenditures to $1.5 billion from a
    projected $4.5 billion in 2023, helped by cutting its cloud services
    bill by 40% and closing one data center, Musk said. Twitter has also laid off thousands of employees."

    https://www.reuters.com/technology/twitters-musk-says-can-raise-revenue-with-more-relevant-ads-2023-03-07/

    Regards…jmcc

    Post edited by jmcc on


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,914 ✭✭✭✭ohnonotgmail


    Twitters revenue was 4.4bn in 2022, the year he took over. It was 5bn the year before he took over. Real 4D chess from. Driving away your biggest source of revenue is business genius.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,532 ✭✭✭jmcc


    Net income matters:

    2022: (Q1+Q2) $513M, -$270M

    2021: -$221M

    2020: -$1,136M

    2019: $1,466M

    2018: $1,206M

    2017: -$108M

    2016: -$475M

    Twitter was making money but its operating costs were high. That meant it was effectively losing more than it made. Covid had a major impact on all Big Tech companies and some bet that a lot of business would go online. Some of these Big Tech companies laid off a lot of employees that they had hired when things returned to normal. However, there are other economic factors at play. Apart from only two years, 2018 and 2019, Twitter has had net losses. Losing advertisers was one headache Twitter could have done without but getting costs under control was important.

    Regards…jmcc

    Post edited by jmcc on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭eightieschewbaccy


    Costs under control doesn't mean a whole lot if he managed to halve all the ad revenue. On top of that, they need to be making more rather than less post takeover due to the fact the company is saddled with debt of the massive purchase price.

    They've also lost 15 percent of their active user base which I don't think any other social media platform has faced at that speed. Numerous downtime events since the takeover as well which isn't gonna help.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,532 ✭✭✭jmcc


    Getting the costs under control was a priority. The ad revenue for 2023 was $2.5 billion but there was also $0.9 billion in subscriptions and data licencing. The previous year's subscriptions and data licencing revenue was $0.4 billion. It is lumbered with a lot of debt. They need to be able to meet to meet the interest payments on the debt and pay operating costs. The subscriptions helped but the focus on dealing with bots scraping content from Twitter/X may have helped increase the data licencing revenue.

    Regards…jmcc



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,009 ✭✭✭✭pjohnson


    Dealing with bots when the place has multiples of the bots it used to is comical.

    I thought most musk simps had fled this sinking ship by now.

    Regards Musk4Lyfe



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,540 ✭✭✭✭Penn


    GOOD POST I LIKE THIS MUCH LOL

    ← p#u#s#s#y##i#n##b#i#o



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭eightieschewbaccy


    Bots and scams are more prominent than ever before. Getting costs down is great and all but it's not great if it causes more and more platform instability. And killing off technical innovations means that they can't compete with other platforms.... Nobody wants Twitter to be their everything app but that's his idea of innovation… Have you any proof that there's any substantial uptake for API functionality? Iirc, most major platforms eg consoles have removed the ability to tweet instead of paying. The fact Musk isn't come out with any big figures to indicate major profits indicates that there simply aren't.

    It's somewhat fascinating to watch posters struggling to find any way to indicate the takeover as a success. Meanwhile both Tesla and Twitter are in serious trouble long term.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,106 ✭✭✭Christy42


    This post is wildly irrelevant if you don't include what the net income was after Elon took over.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,532 ✭✭✭jmcc


    The user generated content, (the tweets, the interactions and the locations) are valuable data. In addition to posting using bots, people also try to scrape this content for free. This kind of activity is not immediately obvious but content scraping has been a major problem for all large websites for decades. With AI and the need for data to train AI, this content, and the content from all large websites has become quite valuable. The New York Times has already taken legal action against one well known AI operation. Ryanair has also successfully sued companies scraping its website.

    Twitter only ever had two profitable years. It probably would have struggled to make a profit even if Musk didn't take it over. Musk overpaid for a company with a lot of problems. Some of them were dealt with by cutting costs. Others will take a lot longer to fix. That kind of discussion might be beyond the scope of this thread.

    Regards…jmcc



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,914 ✭✭✭✭ohnonotgmail


    you dont fix a company by cutting revenue by a third



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