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European Parliament Elections 2024 - Friday, June 7th

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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,780 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    I personally think that both Daly & Wallace will lose their seats.

    Last time out they were campaigning on a record where a lot of voters knew them as people who had been intimidated by gardai for standing up for Maurice McCabe. Daly especially seemed like a hard worker and was prominent in the pro-choice campaign for years prior to 2018.

    As soon as they entered the European Parliament they seemed to focus all of the energy on being shills for the likes of Putin, Assad, Iran and China. That's not what most people voted for them for. Yes there is an anti-American socialist party type vote in the country but as a standalone issue that is small and not enough to elect an MEP.

    You also have to consider that the last time they benefited from Sinn Fein underperforming. Even though SF are dropping in the polls right now they are still way ahead of where they were in 2019 and a lot of that vote in Ireland South and Dublin will be votes that went to Wallace & Daly last time out.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,155 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    Clowns like Mick Wallace and Clare Daly will get replaced by some other clowns. Probably a bizarre shift from left wing Independents to right wing Independents.

    Daly and Wallace are two others who huff and puff a lot but achieved nothing.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,223 ✭✭✭MFPM


    'Clowns' 'huff and puff' 'achieved nothing'...Is this what this thread is going to be about, subjective vacuous statements laced with abuse?



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,155 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    I'm sure Daly and Wallace have had worse insults thrown at them.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,223 ✭✭✭MFPM


    Indeed your opinion about their electoral chance maybe right and obviously subjectively that's your preference.

    Daly didn't 'seemed to be a hard worker' she was and is a hard worker irrespective of your own bias, that's an objective reality that all who've worked with her (including opponents) have attested.

    Their critiques of NATO and US imperialism are well founded and valid many would agree, indeed the response in the West to Israel's assault on Gaza has graphically illustrated some of the points they've been making. Can we also dispense with this childish anti-American nonsense, it's akin to the anti'semitism rubbish if you critique Israel. Being opposed to the US financing mass slaughter in Gaza does not make one anti American.

    The Shinners will win a seat in Dublin, a year ago they may have won two, Daly will benefit from their transfers IMO.FG will likely take a seat, then it's more than likely two from Andrews, Cuffe and Daly.

    N Boylan is getting huge coverage completely disproportionate to his standing but the media are playing a terrible role hyping migration so he could benefit from that, though he talks alot of nonsense and is essentially standing on a Dail programme not an EP one.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,223 ✭✭✭MFPM


    Indeed they have, much of it from the Rugby bros in FG a party that campaigns against social media abuse ironically!



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,780 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    If your whole geopolitical world view boils down to "I am for whoever America is against" then no, it is not nonsense.

    It absolutely makes sense for the far-left to back the Palestinians and something that I strongly endorse myself. It makes no sense for them, however, to be apologists for an actual fascist regime in Europe as it tries to colonise a smaller neighbour. The only reason why they hand wave about Russia is because, if they were to actually support Ukraine, then it would put them on the same side as the USA and that would be unconscionable for them.

    Anyway this not the thread to rehash all that.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,185 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    https://www.boylesports.com/sports/politics

    John Waters at 2/1, surely that's mad?

    Lower odds that Maria Walsh or Lisa Chambers?



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,116 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Some putting a tenner on can distort those markets significantly.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,305 ✭✭✭scheister


    John Waters at 2/1 is mad. I would lay that all day.

    Not surprised that Nina is a shorter price then Maria for FG seat

    The odds on SF on face of it I think are too short. I would imagine their is at least 1 SF seat and they should be in battle for last seat. But hard to separate into a stronger and weaker candidate so pricing both as the strong candidate.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,629 ✭✭✭blackwhite


    I wouldn't be surprised to see Gildernew get elected before MacManus.

    Chris' habit of hiding in the toilets any time there's a vote regarding Russia makes it easy for him to get lumped into the Wallace/Daly tankie basket



  • Registered Users Posts: 153 ✭✭wazzzledazzle


    Received Nina's leaflet in my door today. North Kildare. What's goin on, N.Kildare isn't, midlands,north or west



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,116 ✭✭✭✭L1011




  • Registered Users Posts: 153 ✭✭wazzzledazzle


    Thanks, anyway, she tells me how great her sporting achievements were and she was on dancing with the stars.

    As much as i loved her as a jokcey, she won't be getting my vote for the leaflet alone (and that she is FG)



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,116 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Remember that they got someone elected on "I was the Rose of Tralee" last time; so sometimes that works…



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,223 ✭✭✭MFPM


    Only a few days to go until nominations close, over 50 candidates declared -interesting to see if any more declare. Hard to see anyone of note, there might be a few more anti migrant types but even that is perhaps at saturation point.



  • Registered Users Posts: 153 ✭✭wazzzledazzle


    😢. In fairness, she seems a decent skin. Going by the betting above, there is a fair chance she'll get elected, especially with Kildare and Meath natives. (her being married to a Walsh)



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,116 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Saoirse McHugh running as an Independent.

    I'm going to have to fold the sodding ballot paper in five at this rate



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,223 ✭✭✭MFPM


    She's a decent person and she came so close in 2019 but I think she'll struggle this time out.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,319 ✭✭✭WishUWereHere


    seen that - becoming ridiculous at this stage.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,035 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Very good point on SF, they will get one seat but no clue who the stronger candidate is.

    I think its the same in the South, Gavin has incumbancy but Funcheon seems the more prominent and whose star is rising.

    I think a few months ago they would have fancied getting 2 in from the above areas but likely have to settle for one each.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,780 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Those are some miserly odds. 7 people odds on favourites despite it only being a 5 seater.

    John Waters should be 100/1. 2/1 is an offensively bad price.

    It looks like they've just thrown up a bunch of prices such that regardless of what goes put down they can't lose.

    Wait until Betair open an exchange market (probably after nominations close). Allowing people to Lay will mean that prices naturally drift to more realistic numbers for everybody.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,319 ✭✭✭WishUWereHere


    latest update for declarations just loaded in www.thejournal.ie.

    I used to be able to upload links, but for some reason now I cannot.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,223 ✭✭✭MFPM


    Poll out tonight, not sure how relevant it is for the Euros, alot is being made on FF down 2, their lowest polling in 2 years apparently but the drop is still within the margin of error. Independent's third-biggest political force, just 1 behind FG.

    POLL: Business Post/Red C
    (Apr 19-25, MoE 3%)

    Sinn Féin 27 (+2 in a month)
    Fine Gael 20 (+1)
    Fianna Fáil 14 (-2)
    Social Democrats 6
    Aontú 4 (-1)
    Greens 3 (-1)
    Labour 3
    PBP-Solidarity 2 (-1)
    Independents/others 19 (+2)



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,185 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    I don't know much about Ming.

    Why is he so popular? 1/14 odds.

    Hard-worker?



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,489 ✭✭✭Downlinz


    I would say Daly & Wallace are most prominently known for their anti-USA stance in the many forms that takes. That might not have played well with the electorate a couple of years ago with their views on the US arming Ukraine but it's playing extremely well in recent times with people seeing the atrocities committed by the US backed Israeli's.

    There's probably never been a time when Ireland had as much anti-US sentiment as the present so I think the election is coming at a very good time for both of them.

    The actions of Ursula von der Leyen to repeatedly align with Netanyahu on behalf of the EU has offended a lot of people and I think there's a demand for MEP's who'll push back against such sentiment.

    I doubt positions on Assad, Iran or China are high on the voting agenda for anyone tbh. The people who care about such things and would like Ireland to be more NATO aligned were never voting for either of them anyway.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,035 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    On FF,,,I think they are at 11% in Dublin? Obviously polling not perfect but Barry Andrews could be in some trouble which would be a massive embarrassment for FF.

    He probably crawls over the line but with Regina and Lynn pretty safe that leaves just 2 from Andrews, Cuffe , Daly and Boylan who is the obvious wildcard.

    They are running three people in the midlands which seems mad.

    Kelleher should be ok down South but not sure in their current predicament they can get Cynthia accross the line though.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,223 ✭✭✭MFPM


    You're right it would be a massive embarrassment for FF if Andrews were to lose but it would be hilarious to see him lose.

    Kelleher will be ok in South I think, hard to see them getting 2 though on those figures.

    MNW is hard to call but Cowen should get in - think there's a seat for Flanagan, FG/FF/SF..the 5th is up for grabs.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,189 ✭✭✭Good loser


    I would have good time for Barry Andews; think he's by far the best, most thoughtful MEP from Ireland in Brussels.

    I have heard him argue well with Clare Daly, Has a good grasp of what's important and reasonable.

    (Like Kelliher too in Munster)



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,223 ✭✭✭MFPM


    I've no time for him, utterly disingenuous.

    He attended the Lockheed Martin conference in Dublin, 2 years ago as an invited speaker and made no critique of them serving the Saudi Arabia bombings in Yemen financed of course by the 'good' imperial powers - the US and Britain. This came a year after he was singing his own praises for a debate on Yemen in the Parliament. Funny enough he's been very quiet on Yemen since, and furthermore LM's contribution to the Israeli assault on Gaza seems to have escaped his attention too, maybe the lads in the arms industry had an impact on him!!



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