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A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,753 ✭✭✭yagan


    Trump started the war on China with Huawei ban, Biden carried over that hostility with the COVID origin conspiracy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,454 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    A mercantilist dictatorship.

    China should be treated as the hostile dictatorship it is.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,753 ✭✭✭yagan


    The US had no problem making money out of it. Anyway if the US was really concerned about how Muslims are treated then it would be an ally with Iran against Israel.

    If the USA is now feeling sidelined in the global economy it is entirely of its own making. When Trump pulled out of the TPP it forced all sorts of realignments which in turn led the creation of the RCEP, the worlds largest converging trade bloc with its centre of gravity firmly in east Asia.

    Chinese economic independence is defined by the previous opium and gunboats western version of globalisation.

    Perhaps what upsets US interests the most is how China is actually more capitalist judging by how it let its property and banking gambling go bust. In the US they got TARP and other bailouts to keep the piggy trough full.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,453 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Hopefully others don't jump on the bandwagon and become sidelined also. Probably a certainty they do though.

    All roads lead to Rome.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,800 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    The yanks used TARP, etc during a global systemic crisis - a "lend money" or high street ATMs will stop working scenario.

    Whilst property issues may be a common denominator (as a result of that long period of super-growth), the Chinese are dealing more with a domestic crisis. And the central govt will do all sorts of stepping if/when required.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,753 ✭✭✭yagan


    I think the likes of ASML, which is EU based is very aware of how the new era of US economic insularism is a threat to their business. The Trump era forced the EU to be prepared with a payments alterative to SWIFT to protect against future US isolationist policies.

    I think one of the funniest aspects of the derisking model is how Apple products are now being assembled alongside Huawei phones in Foxconn production plants in Vietnam, for them a more profitable arrangement than the stand alone plants they had to run in China.

    The US is still a military superpower, but that depends on its economic integrity and that has been eroded by Wall Street greed.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,753 ✭✭✭yagan


    That's nonsense, the US had banking wind down procedures since the savings and loans crisis to avoid the ATM situation.

    Private debt was socialised in the US, and also in Ireland with the bank guarantee.

    To expand, 2008 was the end of the road for the mortgage backed money making machine that had expanded since the 1970s. The belief of the bailouts was that it would keep the FIRE economy going, but that didn't happen so frustration has now turned towards demonizing immigrants.



  • Registered Users Posts: 506 ✭✭✭zerosquared


    Hilariously enough tick tock is already banned in China



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,753 ✭✭✭yagan


    Tiktoc is the international version of Douyin.



  • Registered Users Posts: 506 ✭✭✭zerosquared


    which highlights that they could have created a region specific version fire-walled from the rest and nullified all the data privacy objections



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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,453 ✭✭✭brickster69


    They just have to put up with the original app named Douyin instead, which must mean that Douyin is banned in the rest of the world going by your reasoning.

    All roads lead to Rome.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,800 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Right. The situation in 2008 was global, with a global meltdown threatening everything.

    The situation in China currently is domestic.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,901 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    The US are banning tik tok because of Chinese ownership of the company (which will certainly be tested in court) - that is completely different to tik tok itself having 2 different flavours of the app for Chinese and non Chinese regions.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,800 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Unofficial Chinese government control of the app was the issue I thought. Wasn't it that they were given a second chance, they put all the data on US servers, but then were caught handing the keys to the Chinese government



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,753 ✭✭✭yagan


    No it wasn't global. Why do you think so many Irish, including myself ended up in Australia after the housing bust?

    The Australian dollar was tanking until the Chinese announced their infrastructure program and commodity export economies like Canada and Australia avoided recession by servicing that demand.

    Germany and other EU exporter countries had shallow recessions compared to others. Our pharma and biomed industries which served us well during the pandemic continued to increase their headcount after 08 when the housing bust drove our headline unemployment figure to 15%.

    I love when an anglosphere artist announces a global tour which when examined only contains a couple of countries with the inclusion of Australia making it global only in the geographical sense.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,753 ✭✭✭yagan


    A firewall designed for China by the US based Cisco systems.



  • Registered Users Posts: 506 ✭✭✭zerosquared


    you could say that about every tech they adopted/stole and then bastardised tho, China is not exactly an innovative place for new technologies, Tesla are learning just that lesson this year with their stock 40% down and Chinese knock offs threatening them now

    TickTok is based on tech and science that came entirely from outside China but then hijacked and erm “adopted” and twisted into a tool of the Chinese state who don’t exactly have best intentions for their own people never mind foreigners



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,800 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    2008 was global.

    The current issue in China isn't systemic, they aren't having to frantically shore up the system, it's working relatively fine, it's an economic issue. More of their own making (and a byproduct of that crazy growth), roughly similar to Japan in the 90s.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,753 ✭✭✭yagan


    If it was so bad then why no bailout for Evergrande?

    The truth is an economically independent China is of zero profit for the US. Tim Cook tried to explain to Trump that without the deep supply chains of China the average iphone for US consumers would be more than double the price.

    The global economy has shifted back east, the top ten container ports in the world are in Asia with the exception of Rotterdam. The US only gets into that list if Long Beach and Los Angles are counted as one.

    I remember in the first weeks of the pandemic most comments on the likes of youtube were saying the lockdowns were about brutalist totalitarian control and that a virus was an invented excuse. Then when it turned up elsewhere the China bashing switched to the lab creation conspiracy.

    To believe that the collapse of financialisation in some economies in 2008 was a global is to be as deluded as those Aussie spruikers (australian slang for snake oil salesman) who boast that the reason Australia hasn't had a recession in decades is because of its superior management culture and nothing to do with all the iron ore leaving Port Headland.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,453 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Looks like US inflation is heading up and GDP falling

    All roads lead to Rome.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,753 ✭✭✭yagan


    Could Tesla and Apple be as profitable without the deep supply chains of China?

    BYD is the battery maker that powered Nokia when that brand was top of the mobile phone pile, no one cried fowl then. But when a Chinese brand becomes successful out comes all the China bashing.

    Chinese companies expect the racism and so adapt to trade into it. Most Brits don't realise that MG is a Chinese car now, but MG are just copying how the Germans used nationalism to sell Minicoopers with Union Jack taillights.

    Most Tesla owners in Ireland probably don't realise that their car is made in China, same with owners of Volvo XC90s.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,453 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Speaking of China, sounds like Blinken's meeting is going well.

    All roads lead to Rome.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,800 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    If it was so bad then why no bailout for Evergrande?

    Probably throwing money down a hole. It's up to the Chinese how they tackle this.

    To believe that the collapse of financialisation in some economies in 2008 was a global

    It's not a "belief". The global financial crisis was global, that it's class, by definition. You seem to be taking it to a literal extreme. It obviously doesn't mean every country in the world was impacted in the same way and to the same degree. Famously Australia was one of the least impacted countries in the world (and others in Oceania/Asia).

    What's happening in China is domestic, and different in nature.

    If their underlying financial system was failing and collapsing under their feet, yeah we'd probably see lending windows opened (bailouts), but that isn't occurring, it's more of a cooldown and it's knock-on effects. Obviously there'll be relative effect felt regionally and around the world, but at it's core it's domestic.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,753 ✭✭✭yagan


    It is hilarious that Blinken is asking for a level playing field in the years after the Huawei ban. Does he want China to ban Apple to level things out?



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,753 ✭✭✭yagan


    Earlier you said they were frantically shoring up something, now you're saying thing are cooling down.

    So collapsing or cooling down, which is it oh great sage.

    Edit to add, another great trope that China bashers love is that when facts from China undermine their argument they cry that nothing out of China can be believed, even though they might be typing that on a device that's only affordable to them because of China's economy of scale.

    <Mod snip - off topic>

    Post edited by Ten of Swords on


  • Registered Users Posts: 506 ✭✭✭zerosquared


    It’s not a question if they “could” they have no choice

    China will and is running these and other companies out of their market, China invites companies in, steals IP, replicates the products and then nudges the eejits out, time after time, and greedy CEOs don’t learn of course chasing short term profits

    It’s a bit hypocritical of them to complain about TickTok too, likes of Google etc been ran out of China along time ago

    You used the words racist and conspiracy theories before, what China does is plain old mercantilist, it’s not racism to point it out, the problem for them is that others are copping on to this game of theirs.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,753 ✭✭✭yagan


    Would you prefer if China had let US companies exploit China in the same manner they exploit the US? Would that be the level playing field Blinken is seeking?



  • Registered Users Posts: 506 ✭✭✭zerosquared


    I prefer companies are treated equally but since China was allowed into the WTO (and their per capita wealth increased because of this) they done everything to ensure there is not an equal playing field

    So for China to be complaining now when they get a taste of own medicine is hilarious.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,753 ✭✭✭yagan


    How is China complaining?

    Huawei ban forced them to develop their chipsets, now Apple sales in China are in decline. China didn't ban Apple like Trump banned Huawei.

    Many Chinese companies don't even bother with the US anymore as it's too politically volatile. Why bother worrying about snap US tariffs when the RCEP is the bigger market with uniform tariff convergence?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 506 ✭✭✭zerosquared


    So they found a new bunch of fools to rip off with mercentalist policies? Best of luck to them so, they need it as the population will drop by 300mn in next decade alone



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