Russia - threadbanned users in OP

I'm like a broken record saying this but every month it seems to reach new heights. Russian equipment losses with their constant attacks is staggering. Completely unsustainable but Putin has obviously taken the approach. There's no good saving anything for a future war. He's going to literally use up every drivable tank, APV and artillery piece he's got in storage.

And why not use as much as possible now while the Ukrainians are lacking ammo. No point using them in 2 year's when ammo could be plentiful. Despite the constant waves doesn't look like their recent momentum was sustained.

This war is annoying me more and more. If Ukraine gets the aid it needs I have no doubt how this goes. The west is literally giving Putin a shot at winning when we could deal with the fcucker for what in GDP terms is a fairly small amount. Russian losses of equipment and men is massive, they simply cannot sustain it if we just give Ukraine what they need to hold the line and even make a few gains.

Yeah makes sense for Ukraine to have their AA closer to the frontlines but like that Russia are hitting rear high value energy targets to force Ukraine to move these back and if they do then that gives Russia an advantage at the front lines as they can use their fighter planes etc. more freely then near the from lines, it's a vicious circle Ukraine are in at the moment regarding this. There is definitely gaps appearing in the Ukrainian air defense where Russia are getting through (could say the same I suppose about Russia as there getting hit by drones in their territory but I just think it's different).

This is a great point. There is definitely close to 1,000 dead or incapacitated per day otherwise you'd not be seeing such large numbers drafted. I wonder if this next batch of 150k is on top of the 30k a month Putin always recruits or if it's just the regular five months worth. It did say before the end of August which is 5 months.

3rd time lucky? Let's hope so, they're saying first half of 2024, which gives them three more months:

I wouldn't be surprised if Russia launched an attack to take Kharkiv.

Yip - i am anecdotally seeing on soc media ( no MSM mentioning it yet ) that there is a large uptick in citizens getting out of dodge leaving Kharkiv. Unfortunately its pretty much on the Russia border and has a population of about 1.5m. All these people will start moving west, so over the summer i would not be surprised seeing a further refugee flow into rest of Europe similar to post Feb 2022.

in general it is a numbers game. Ukraine has a population of 40m approx, Russia has a pop of 145m approx. russia has an authoritarian regime so less options to avoid getting dumped to the front line. Re population + lets use the word zero empathy for human life, just math & lack of value for life says russia is way ahead here. From reading up on Ukraine last good while it seems the majority of those fighting on the front lines have been doing so for the last two years without much break or replacement. Thats simply unsustainable. This summer is make or break - make for Russia, unfortunately big break for Ukraine :(

Also lets face it - Russia getting endless weapons supply from like minded allies + west STILL using & paying for much of Russia's oil etc. Ukraine NOT getting endless weapons supply from its "allies" 9 the west ) and also being hampered by the wests rules of DO NOT hit or attack Russia with western weapons etc

All this is leading me to conclude, when you factor in above - this was always doomed to fail for Ukraine. Unless the west / Ukraines partners step up like they havent done before, and even at that they might achive just holding the line. Manpower is the thing I think and the west / nato will not be supplying that in theatre

At the outset of the war if anyone predicted that Russia would lose all the manpower and equipment that they have no on would believe it. All the planes, helicopters, ships of all things, on top of catastrophic quantities of artillery shells and equipment, tanks etc.

Indeed if at the outset you said Russia would expend all that they have, people would be saying they would be in Warsaw now, not just Kiev. What Ukraine have achieved to date is incredible. Shame on the western world for their lack of support.

This war is so important, defeating Putin is so important, he is the figure head and facilitator for dictatorships around the world. I know that it's possible the US and NATO fear a broken up Russia with nuclear warheads in the hands of various factions, and maybe that forms part of the doctrine of support for defence rather than attack.

Overall we are watching a sea change in the shaping of world power and alliances. Alternative facilities and in the longer term renewables have and will reduce the power element of many nations including Russia. Would we have believed that Europe would be fine for two winters without Russian gas and oil? Europe will never again be dependant on Russian energy.

Sumy

Interesting article, especially that 80-90% of Russian losses are caused by drones.

It's a two-way street and indeed both sides can hurt each other with drones.

But I do think that the increases in geographical range and accuracy will help the Ukrainian side more. Russia can already strike all of Ukraine, but it is a new capability for Ukraine.

Also, Putin was keen that most Russians would be unaffected by the "special military operation" so not give it much thought. When the war comes to their cities or provinces, and affected their local economies or power supplies, more questions will be raised.

Ukraine has to fight, or they no longer exist.

Russia (outside of Putin's head) does not need this.

If in late 2022 when the Russians seemed to be collapsing you said that 18 months later the frontlines would hardly have changed at all no one would have believed it either. At many periods in the war predictions have been defied, gains have been halted.

Ukraine has done an amazing job against the barbarians but anyone who thinks the picture looks rosy right now (for either side) is fooling only themselves