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March 2024 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 27-02-2024 09:35AM
    #1
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,080 ✭✭✭✭


    1. Predict the "IMT" or Irish Mean Temperature which is the average for night and day at these five locations: Casement, Mullingar, Claremorris, Oak Park, and Shannon. (In March the normal IMT is 6.8 C). That is worth a maximum of 25 points. You lose one point per 0.1 deg error.
    2. Predict the MAX which is the highest reading at any of the 25 regular reporting stations on the met.ie website. Worth 20 points, same error.
    3. Predict the MIN, lowest reading, otherwise same idea. Worth 20 points, same error as the first two.
    4. Predict the PRC which is the rainfall plus liquid equivalent of any other types of precipitation, as a percentage of normal for the average at eleven locations in Ireland. Those are the five listed in 1 above, plus Malin Head, Belmullet, Ballyhaise, Johnstown Castle (in Wexford), Cork, and Valentia. (worth 15 points, you lose one point for each 3% error).
    5. Predict the SUN, hours of sunshine also as a percentage of normal, from stats gathered at six locations around Ireland (Casement, Dublin, Cork, Valentia, Shannon, Belmullet). The average duration of sunshine in March is about 3.5 hours a day. Worth 10 points and the score is reduced for each multiple of 5% error.
    6. BONUS for March __ Predict the maximum temperature on 17th March at Dublin A (10 points, scores are always by rank order regardless of whether the errors are big or small ... superbonus will apply, any forecast right on to nearest decimal gets 2, and an error of 0.1 is worth one extra point.)

    Deadline as always 0300h of 1st March, late penalties 1 point per 4 hours to 1500h 2nd and 1 point per hour afterwards. (it's a leap year so you have to early Friday morning to post)

    Will post forecasts for myself and NormaL in next two days; Dublin's average max would be around 11.5 C by 17th. If anyone has a more precise value they could offer for that, I will use it instead, my estimate is just going with the known mean for March, adjusted to 17th, and average daily range of about 8 to 9 deg).

    Post edited by M.T. Cranium on


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Comments

  • #2
    Bsal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭Bsal


    Bsal_____________7.0 _ 18.0 _ -3.0 _ 125 _ 99 ____ 12.0



  • #3
    Tazio
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 706 ✭✭✭Tazio


    Tazio_____________6.5 _ 15.0 _ -1.5 _ 90 _ 115 ____ 7.5



  • #4
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,584 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Gonzo_____________7.6 _ 18.2 _ -3.4 _ 112 _ 090 ____ 12.3



  • #5
    John mac
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,169 ✭✭✭John mac


    john mac ____________ 7.1 _ 18.7 _ -3.7 _ 108 _ 095 ___ 13.7



  • #6
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,013 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    sryanbruen ____________ 6.8 _ 17.9 _ -4.6 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 8.1

    Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/



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  • #7
    dasa29
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 594 ✭✭✭dasa29


    Dasa29 ____________ 7.4 _ 17.0 _ -2.0 _ 120 _ 100 ___ 12.0



  • #8
    kindredspirit
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 357 ✭✭kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 7.5 ___ 17.2 ___ -2.0 ___ 85 ___ 105 ___ 9.1

    https://coolwatergarden.com/



  • #9
    esposito
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,560 ✭✭✭esposito


    esposito___ 7.1___ 19.2 ___ -5.3___ 85 ___ 105 ___ 13.0

    Post edited by esposito on


  • #10
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,051 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    DOCARCH _____________6.8 _ 17.8 _ -4.2 _ 90 _ 110 ____ 7.8



  • #11
    waterways
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 393 ✭✭waterways


    waterways ____________ 7.0 _ 20.9 _ -4.3 _ 112 _ 105 ___ 13.1



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  • #12
    Artane2002
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,080 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    Artane2002_____________7.6 _ 17.7 _ -3.7 _ 125 _ 90 ____ 13.3



  • #13
    Cornerstonelad
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 56 ✭✭Cornerstonelad


    Cornerstonelad_____8.9___17.5____-3.9___85___130____14.5



  • #14
    Joe Public
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,796 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    Joe Public_____________7.3 _ 17.7 _ -4.4 _ 93 _ 98 ____ 7.1



  • #15
    rameire
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,339 ✭✭✭rameire


    Rameire_____________7.2 _ 18.4 _ -3.5 _ 117 _ 94 ____ 7.9 miserable wet damp

    🌞 3.8kwp, 🌞 Clonee, Dub.🌞



  • #16
    WolfeEire
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 1,602 Mod ✭✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    WolfeEire_____________6.7 _ 18 _ -5 _ 95 _ 120 ____ 10

    www.weatheire.com



  • #17
    sunflower3
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 203 ✭✭sunflower3


    Sunflower3____________6.9__ 19.1 _ -4.0 _ 105 _ 90 ____12.1



  • #18
    adam240610
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 888 ✭✭✭adam240610


    I'm feeling a very average and forgettable month, (before a glorious April??) and am quite tired sooo

    Can you put me down for Normal? I would copy it but you don't have the vals in here yet, bonus 11.8

    adam240610___Normal___11.8



  • #19
    appledrop
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,843 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Appledrop 7.3__17.2__-4.0__115__90__11.2



  • #20
    200motels
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,621 ✭✭✭200motels


    200motels 6.9 _ 16.9 _ -4.2 _ 95 _ 106 ___ 7.1



  • #21
    mr.stonewall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,145 ✭✭✭mr.stonewall


    Mr stonewall 6.4___15.7___-4.6___72___120___8.1



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  • #22
    Tae laidir
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 762 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Tae laidir__________7.5 _ 17.8 _ -2.3 _ 117 _ 103 ____ 12.3



  • #23
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,515 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Pauldry 7.8__18.2__-3.8__125__92__12.1



  • #24
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,080 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    MTC ________ 7.2 _ 17.7 _ -3.5 _ 105 _ 110 __ 13.5

    NORMAL _____6.8 _ 18.0 _ -4.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 11.8



  • #25
    dacogawa
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,858 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    Dacogawa_____________7.8 _ 18.0 _ -3.8 _ 140 _ 90 ___ 14.1



  • #26
    Jpmarn
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,502 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Jpmarn _____7.8 _ 18.2 _ -3.5 _ 100 _ 110 __ 12.8



  • #27
    mrskinner
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 409 ✭✭mrskinner


    Skinner____7.3__17.3__-3.3__123__103__13.3



  • #28
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,080 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for March 2024 


    FORECASTER ____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ max 17th (Dub A)

    Cornerstonelad____________ 8.9 _ 17.5 _ -3.9 _ 085 _ 130 ____14.5

    Jpmarn __________________7.8 _ 18.2 _ -3.5 _ 100 _ 110 ______12.8

    Pauldry ________________7.8 _ 18.2 _ -3.8 _ 125 _ 092 ______ 12.1

    Dacogawa _______________ 7.8 _ 18.0 _ -3.8 _ 140 _ 090 ____ 14.1

    Gonzo ___________________7.6 _ 18.2 _ -3.4 _ 112 _ 090 ______ 12.3

    Artane2002_______________7.6 _ 17.7 _ -3.7 _ 125 _ 090 _____ 13.3

    Tae laidir_________________7.5 _ 17.8 _ -2.3 _ 117 _ 103 ______ 12.3

    Kindred Spirit ____________ 7.5 _ 17.2 _ -2.0 _ 085 _ 105 _________ 9.1

    Dasa29 _________________ 7.4 _ 17.0 _ -2.0 _ 120 _ 100 ______ 12.0

    Joe Public________________7.3 _ 17.7 _ -4.4 _ 093 _ 098 ___________ 7.1

    Mr Skinner _______________7.3 _ 17.3 _ -3.3 _ 123 _ 103 _____ 13.3

    Appledrop _______________ 7.3 _ 17.2 _ -4.0 _ 115 _ 090 _______ 11.2

    Rameire_________________ 7.2 _ 18.4 _ -3.5 _ 117 _ 094 __________7.9


    ___ Con Sensus ___________7.2 _ 17.9 _ -3.8 _ 105 _ 102 ______ 12.1


    M.T. Cranium _____________ 7.2 _ 17.7 _ -3.5 _ 105 _ 110 _____13.5

    esposito _________________ 7.1 _ 19.2 _ -5.3 _ 085 _ 105 _____ 13.0

    john mac ________________ 7.1 _ 18.7 _ -3.7 _ 108 _ 095 _____13.7

    waterways _______________ 7.0 _ 20.9 _ -4.3 _ 112 _ 105 _____ 13.1

    Bsal ____________________ 7.0 _ 18.0 _ -3.0 _ 125 _ 099 ______ 12.0

    Sunflower3_______________ 6.9 _ 19.1 _ -4.0 _ 105 _ 090 ______ 12.1

    200motels _______________ 6.9 _ 16.9 _ -4.2 _ 095 _ 106 ___________ 7.1

    Adam240610 _____________ 6.8 _ 18.0 _ -4.5 _ 100 _ 100 _______11.8

    ___ NormaL ______________6.8 _ 18.0 _ -4.5 _ 100 _ 100 _______11.8

    sryanbruen _______________6.8 _ 17.9 _ -4.6 _ 100 _ 100 _________ 8.1

    DOCARCH _______________ 6.8 _ 17.8 _ -4.2 _ 090 _ 110 __________ 7.8

    WolfeEire_________________6.7 _ 18.0 _ -5.0 _ 095 _ 120 ________ 10.0

    Tazio ____________________6.5 _ 15.0 _ -1.5 _ 090 _ 115 __________7.5

    Mr stonewall ______________6.4 _ 15.7 _ -4.6 _ 072 _ 120 _________ 8.1

    ________________________

    26 forecasts, consensus is average of 13th and 14th ranked.

    Looks like two forecast groups with some looking for an extension of the Feb trends, others expecting cool and dry to win out.



  • #29
    Tae laidir
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 762 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Knock Airport -0.7 for openers.



  • #30
    Tae laidir
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 762 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Mt. Dillon -1.2 yesterday.



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  • #31
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,080 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After first week ...

    IMT _ 6.0, 0.3 below normal.

    MAX _ 13.1

    MIN _ -1.2

    PRC _ 142% of normal

    SUN _ 116% of normal

    17th looks like 10 to 12 C on current guidance, cloudy s.w. flow indicated



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