March 2024 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the "IMT" or Irish Mean Temperature which is the average for night and day at these five locations: Casement, Mullingar, Claremorris, Oak Park, and Shannon. (In March the normal IMT is 6.8 C). That is worth a maximum of 25 points. You lose one point per 0.1 deg error.
2. Predict the MAX which is the highest reading at any of the 25 regular reporting stations on the met.ie website. Worth 20 points, same error.
3. Predict the MIN, lowest reading, otherwise same idea. Worth 20 points, same error as the first two.
4. Predict the PRC which is the rainfall plus liquid equivalent of any other types of precipitation, as a percentage of normal for the average at eleven locations in Ireland. Those are the five listed in 1 above, plus Malin Head, Belmullet, Ballyhaise, Johnstown Castle (in Wexford), Cork, and Valentia. (worth 15 points, you lose one point for each 3% error).
5. Predict the SUN, hours of sunshine also as a percentage of normal, from stats gathered at six locations around Ireland (Casement, Dublin, Cork, Valentia, Shannon, Belmullet). The average duration of sunshine in March is about 3.5 hours a day. Worth 10 points and the score is reduced for each multiple of 5% error.
6. BONUS for March __ Predict the maximum temperature on 17th March at Dublin A (10 points, scores are always by rank order regardless of whether the errors are big or small ... superbonus will apply, any forecast right on to nearest decimal gets 2, and an error of 0.1 is worth one extra point.)

Deadline as always 0300h of 1st March, late penalties 1 point per 4 hours to 1500h 2nd and 1 point per hour afterwards. (it's a leap year so you have to early Friday morning to post)

Will post forecasts for myself and NormaL in next two days; Dublin's average max would be around 11.5 C by 17th. If anyone has a more precise value they could offer for that, I will use it instead, my estimate is just going with the known mean for March, adjusted to 17th, and average daily range of about 8 to 9 deg).

Bsal

Bsal_____________7.0 _ 18.0 _ -3.0 _ 125 _ 99 ____ 12.0

Tazio

Tazio_____________6.5 _ 15.0 _ -1.5 _ 90 _ 115 ____ 7.5

Gonzo

Gonzo_____________7.6 _ 18.2 _ -3.4 _ 112 _ 090 ____ 12.3

John mac

john mac ____________ 7.1 _ 18.7 _ -3.7 _ 108 _ 095 ___ 13.7

sryanbruen

sryanbruen ____________ 6.8 _ 17.9 _ -4.6 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 8.1

dasa29

Dasa29 ____________ 7.4 _ 17.0 _ -2.0 _ 120 _ 100 ___ 12.0

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 7.5 ___ 17.2 ___ -2.0 ___ 85 ___ 105 ___ 9.1

esposito

esposito___ 7.1___ 19.2 ___ -5.3___ 85 ___ 105 ___ 13.0

DOCARCH

DOCARCH _____________6.8 _ 17.8 _ -4.2 _ 90 _ 110 ____ 7.8

waterways

waterways ____________ 7.0 _ 20.9 _ -4.3 _ 112 _ 105 ___ 13.1

Artane2002

Artane2002_____________7.6 _ 17.7 _ -3.7 _ 125 _ 90 ____ 13.3

Cornerstonelad

Cornerstonelad_____8.9___17.5____-3.9___85___130____14.5

Joe Public

Joe Public_____________7.3 _ 17.7 _ -4.4 _ 93 _ 98 ____ 7.1

rameire

Rameire_____________7.2 _ 18.4 _ -3.5 _ 117 _ 94 ____ 7.9 miserable wet damp

WolfeEire

WolfeEire_____________6.7 _ 18 _ -5 _ 95 _ 120 ____ 10

sunflower3

Sunflower3____________6.9__ 19.1 _ -4.0 _ 105 _ 90 ____12.1

adam240610

I'm feeling a very average and forgettable month, (before a glorious April??) and am quite tired sooo

Can you put me down for Normal? I would copy it but you don't have the vals in here yet, bonus 11.8

adam240610___Normal___11.8

appledrop

Appledrop 7.3__17.2__-4.0__115__90__11.2

200motels

200motels 6.9 _ 16.9 _ -4.2 _ 95 _ 106 ___ 7.1

mr.stonewall

Mr stonewall 6.4___15.7___-4.6___72___120___8.1

Tae laidir

Tae laidir__________7.5 _ 17.8 _ -2.3 _ 117 _ 103 ____ 12.3

pauldry

Pauldry 7.8__18.2__-3.8__125__92__12.1

M.T. Cranium

MTC ________ 7.2 _ 17.7 _ -3.5 _ 105 _ 110 __ 13.5

NORMAL _____6.8 _ 18.0 _ -4.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 11.8

dacogawa

Dacogawa_____________7.8 _ 18.0 _ -3.8 _ 140 _ 90 ___ 14.1

Jpmarn

Jpmarn _____7.8 _ 18.2 _ -3.5 _ 100 _ 110 __ 12.8

mrskinner

Skinner____7.3__17.3__-3.3__123__103__13.3

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for March 2024 

FORECASTER ____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ max 17th (Dub A)

Cornerstonelad____________ 8.9 _ 17.5 _ -3.9 _ 085 _ 130 ____14.5

Jpmarn __________________7.8 _ 18.2 _ -3.5 _ 100 _ 110 ______12.8

Pauldry ________________7.8 _ 18.2 _ -3.8 _ 125 _ 092 ______ 12.1

Dacogawa _______________ 7.8 _ 18.0 _ -3.8 _ 140 _ 090 ____ 14.1

Gonzo ___________________7.6 _ 18.2 _ -3.4 _ 112 _ 090 ______ 12.3

Artane2002_______________7.6 _ 17.7 _ -3.7 _ 125 _ 090 _____ 13.3

Tae laidir_________________7.5 _ 17.8 _ -2.3 _ 117 _ 103 ______ 12.3

Kindred Spirit ____________ 7.5 _ 17.2 _ -2.0 _ 085 _ 105 _________ 9.1

Dasa29 _________________ 7.4 _ 17.0 _ -2.0 _ 120 _ 100 ______ 12.0

Joe Public________________7.3 _ 17.7 _ -4.4 _ 093 _ 098 ___________ 7.1

Mr Skinner _______________7.3 _ 17.3 _ -3.3 _ 123 _ 103 _____ 13.3

Appledrop _______________ 7.3 _ 17.2 _ -4.0 _ 115 _ 090 _______ 11.2

Rameire_________________ 7.2 _ 18.4 _ -3.5 _ 117 _ 094 __________7.9

___ Con Sensus ___________7.2 _ 17.9 _ -3.8 _ 105 _ 102 ______ 12.1

M.T. Cranium _____________ 7.2 _ 17.7 _ -3.5 _ 105 _ 110 _____13.5

esposito _________________ 7.1 _ 19.2 _ -5.3 _ 085 _ 105 _____ 13.0

john mac ________________ 7.1 _ 18.7 _ -3.7 _ 108 _ 095 _____13.7

waterways _______________ 7.0 _ 20.9 _ -4.3 _ 112 _ 105 _____ 13.1

Bsal ____________________ 7.0 _ 18.0 _ -3.0 _ 125 _ 099 ______ 12.0

Sunflower3_______________ 6.9 _ 19.1 _ -4.0 _ 105 _ 090 ______ 12.1

200motels _______________ 6.9 _ 16.9 _ -4.2 _ 095 _ 106 ___________ 7.1

Adam240610 _____________ 6.8 _ 18.0 _ -4.5 _ 100 _ 100 _______11.8

___ NormaL ______________6.8 _ 18.0 _ -4.5 _ 100 _ 100 _______11.8

sryanbruen _______________6.8 _ 17.9 _ -4.6 _ 100 _ 100 _________ 8.1

DOCARCH _______________ 6.8 _ 17.8 _ -4.2 _ 090 _ 110 __________ 7.8

WolfeEire_________________6.7 _ 18.0 _ -5.0 _ 095 _ 120 ________ 10.0

Tazio ____________________6.5 _ 15.0 _ -1.5 _ 090 _ 115 __________7.5

Mr stonewall ______________6.4 _ 15.7 _ -4.6 _ 072 _ 120 _________ 8.1

________________________

26 forecasts, consensus is average of 13th and 14th ranked.

Looks like two forecast groups with some looking for an extension of the Feb trends, others expecting cool and dry to win out.

Tae laidir

Knock Airport -0.7 for openers.

Tae laidir

Mt. Dillon -1.2 yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

After first week ...

IMT _ 6.0, 0.3 below normal.

MAX _ 13.1

MIN _ -1.2

PRC _ 142% of normal

SUN _ 116% of normal

17th looks like 10 to 12 C on current guidance, cloudy s.w. flow indicated