A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

EU approves the 13th round of sanctions which includes Chinese firms for the first time.

From 1998 to 2006 people were calling a recession. Nobody called a GFC. There were plenty claiming after the fact that they knew though.

Its the same every year. Someone calling a global meltdown. Eventually when it comes be it 2 years or 10 years or 15 years of shouting about the sky falling you'll have people shouting "See, I told you, I knew it was coming and ive been saying it for years".

Its not really any different to the lads in the pub screaming what the manager of Liverpool should have done to win the match. They can shout all they want, but there is a reason the manager is the manager and they are shouting sh1te from the sidelines. Liverpool will win some matches, they will lose matches, and the insiders on the team will have all sorts of info, but nobody second guessing the team from their couch have any clue or skill to make their opinion anymore than a fans rant.

OP didn’t claim to have an opinion piece but solid analysis and data so I asked to share it to see if it made sense or is it just his usual mantra of private credit is bad and Government debt is good.

As for my opinions I stick to 2 things that move markets greed and fear….it was very evident in 05/06 that there was extreme greed and zero fear…The exact same dynamic was evident during dot com bubble…...i don’t see that same dynamic today except during 21/22 in the stock market, crypto…..if anything fear has increased over the past year or two which has resulted in people being more cautious and risk adverse.

I would neither be a bull nor a bear. I just watch and see what happens. And there is not any pattern to it. If there was and you actually knew anything about it you would be typing that reply from your beach front villa in Italy.

So what are you in here banging on about then? Most peoples personalities lean one way or the other and then that bias drives the info they consume/seek out.

Nobody knows what's going to happen. That's very much my point. But people who keep coming in here going haha no crash yet are just as clueless as the person who created the thread.

Just because you can't seem to grasp what he's saying doesn't mean it's nonsense.

1. People complaining about post dumping then spamming the thread with risable crap of 'haha you were wrong' are basically the other cheek on the same arse as those who link dump with no context. He put it better with bulls v bears and confirmation bias.

2. As I asked before, if you think this thread is bs and filled with sh!te why keep coming back?

Some on this thread are like athiests who post God doesn't exist over and over on a religious board i.e. pathetic, immature and just as clueless as the people they mock.

So license removed for money laundering rather than a banking collapse…

True - but at least we can see the reason why- under supply. It’s anyone’s guess if we ever get to match demand with supply for housing over the next 10 years- especially if mega landlord companies no less airlines are buying up whole housing estates.

It feels like we’re moving to a European model of renting for life for a lot of people but without the statutory supports and housing supply in place to protect these people.

Whole of life loans will likely become more common because only the very well off will be able to afford the prices and smaller mortgages

Theres a lot of talk around companies wanting their staff back in office fulltime in 2024. Yet more pressure on transport and a liklihood that many will leave their job, not voluntarily but because they just live too far away to commute daily.

We’ve learned nothing from all the creativity and innovation that came about throughout lockdown around the world of work- it’s back to micro supervision and presentism

...thats not exactly true, there were a few people that believed a serious debt crisis was very likely, prior to 08, ann pettifor, steve keen and Michael hudson, all believed this was very likely, all for the same reasons, i.e. excess private debt in developed nations, primarily being used for the inflation of property values, all showing in their works, that this has occurred on multiple occasions across the world, keen himself showing it has lead to some of the most serious downturns in the us alone, marked yellow on the graph....

What does that graph prove? 100 years of lending lead to the Great Depression and 50 years of lending lead to the GFC.

Lets not forget that the one thing both the Great Depression and the GFC had in common was banks lending for investment purposes and using the value of investment as collateral so as prices rise so does peoples ability to borrow to get more money to buy more investments etc…. Lending to invest is not common practice today just look at the the required LTV for a buy to let or try and get a bank to lend you 50k to play the stock market.

The only place that you can see banks lending to for investment purposes is with Funds but their exposure and risk is limited as they require a significant deposit in the form of investors cash to lend.

You can get 50k loans online with Irish banks relatively easy. I know somebody who ticked the home owner box after their application failed. Bank never checked and the money was in their account a few weeks later.

Banks make money by lending money. Theyre going to lend as much as they can as often as they can. If you think personal savings are the only way to speculate I've got a bridge to sell you.

Do you charge for that advise?

80% of over 40s are home owmers/mortgage holders. 70% of voting population is over 35.

The maths make it easy to see why politicians favour helping that cohort.