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What does the future hold for Donald Trump? - threadbans in OP

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,147 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    I didn't deny he was a rapist


    I don't know whether or not he is a rapist.

    The judge doesn't share your "confusion".



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,503 ✭✭✭✭everlast75


    Elect a clown... Expect a circus



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 41,029 ✭✭✭✭ohnonotgmail




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,064 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    So it would be a catastrophe if a criminally convicted rapist was in the WH but not found liable by a civil court? That might make sense to you, but it is completely illogical.

    And that's before we consider all the other court cases coming against Trump for trying to steal the election.

    If you have no comment to make on the rape, make no comment on it. But that is not what you are doing.

    You are are denying that he is a rapist, when you trot out the "just asking questions" and semantic games about it. "I don't know whether or not he is a rapist" is denying he is a rapist. They are denialist tactics.

    Trump is a rapist. Statement of fact. If you don't know about that, maybe stop trying to get him off the hook for it instead of constantly going to bat for a rapist, a fraudster, a racist and a wannabee dictator.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,020 ✭✭✭✭duploelabs


    So my question is answered in this piece, he can seek a bond in New York, but given how heavily leveraged he is, no commercial lender would go near him. Leaving him open to private or, even more worrying, Sovereign lenders




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  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 17,016 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    To get the bond he has to put up collateral - Which he doesn't really have.

    He is about to get caught in a doom-loop of debt and the chances of him losing everything are very very high.

    Basically he can't just "borrow" the money as it were - The courts and the lender have to have absolute certainty that the funds are available somewhere to cover the debt if/when it comes due.

    Using his property portfolio as collateral is very risky for the lender for a number of reasons.

    The whole point of the judgement is that he has been lying about the true value of his assets so any potential lenders are going to want a pretty hefty haircut on the valuations and bear in mind that most of what he "owns" is already heavily leveraged with existing debt so the available cash is much lower than even the true market value of the various assets.

    He's also going to need to secure a bond much higher than the current value of the judgement as it accrues interest at 9% so the courts are going to demand that he covers the full potential future value with the bond. He's already at close to $500M and they are probably going to want another 20% on top due to the likely time an appeal might take.

    Trump doesn't have $600m+ is available assets to put up as collateral as if his portfolio was put on the market , A) It would be a fire sale as every buyer would know that he HAS to sell so they will low-ball the hell out of him and he can do nothing about it , and B) they would need to clear down all the exiting debt first so the chances of him having $600M left after all that aren't great.

    If he has to pay this , he's done - Simple as that.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,278 ✭✭✭eightieschewbaccy


    I'm expecting seizure of assets is way it will go. I don't think Trump can comprehend that he has to pay so simply won't and he's exhausted his legal avenues by looks of it.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 17,016 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Agreed.

    One thing that isn't clear to me though is would any potential asset seizures be limited to those located in New York State or could they seek to seize things like Mar-a-Lago or even Doonbeg here in Ireland for example?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,949 ✭✭✭Hande hoche!


    Imagine his ego won't let him lose Trump towers.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    When you put it all like that in black and white, it's a pretty disastrous situation trump's in and you'd wonder if the Appeal has any chance of success. Cos if not, as you say, if he has to pay the fine he's doomed.

    And correct me if I'm wrong but the Presidency couldn't save him from this, right? He can't just forgive his debt on a whim?



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  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 17,016 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Correct - This is a state level charge so he can't "pardon" his way out of it.

    Now - If an appeal case was still ongoing were he to win the Election then it would effectively go on hold for the 4 years he's in office but he can't stop it directly.

    That's not to say that he couldn't try to use the DOJ to remove or discredit Judges or AG's involved to try and help his appeal but he can't simply expunge the ruling directly.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,151 ✭✭✭✭LambshankRedemption


    Does anyone know, are there any legal roadblocks preventing an individual who is financially bankrupt from being President?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,271 ✭✭✭✭banie01


    I think this is part of the reason a court monitor was appointed to the Trump Org. It prevented any outside NY assets held by the Org from being either divested to non NY corporate structures or held apart from NY regulated structures.

    The entirety of the Trump Orgs assets are potentially at risk IMO. It's very important to note the value of Trump Orgs assets is very much predicated on commercial real estate values, which are tanking worldwide at the mo. The quickest path to paying the fines? Firesale!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 4,909 ✭✭✭Rawr


    I don't think there are any legal roadblocks if he ends up bankrupt. But fighting to hold onto what he's got left might provide a practical & time-management roadblock to be him being able to effectivly run a campaign or possibly win over enough independant / moderate voters.

    You also have the whole "successful tycoon" fiction Trump had built over the years and then reinforced with his appearance on The Apprenctice, which might have helped him in 2016. However this time we'v got a washed up flogger of gold shoes and gaudy NFTs who might end up spending his time screaming about how he has to liqudate his properties...and that doesn't really give that same vibe as in 2016. Makes him seem like a bit of a loser.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 17,016 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Fair enough..

    The valuations are where the problem lies.

    The value he has put on them is nonsense and like you say Commercial property values are tanking all over due to remote work etc.

    NY is holding up a bit better than most , but still not great.

    Add in the fact that most/all of his properties are already heavily mortgaged and that any large scale sale will absolutely be a fire sale of epic proportions , the chances of him being able to clear $600M+ from that aren't great at all.

    And any lender is going to know all of that so they will want EVERYTHING he has to be included in any bond deal to make sure they are covered.

    He's f*cked.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,656 ✭✭✭McFly85


    There are several stories out there about Trumps desperation to be perceived as a billionaire regardless of how true it is - so having his wealth dissected and publicised, even before everything is taken away from him, has got to be a massive blow to his ego.

    And I agree the only way this ends is with seizure of assets. Compliance with court rulings isn’t one of his strong suits so I can’t imagine him bothering to try and raise the cash in the first place, preferring to complain on social media about how this is all politically motivated. And that’s a look that’s really not going to play well with anyone except true believers.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 17,016 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    His entire sense of self is tied to the idea that he's a "Brilliant Billionaire Businessman".

    All you need to do is look at all the efforts he has expended over the years pumping up the valuations of everything to make sure he makes the Forbes Rich list to know how critically important that perception is to him.

    This ruling and its outcome, more than anything else, is the one that will hurt him the most.

    His lies and braggadocio over the years about his wealth have painted him into a corner. Just last year he claimed to have $400M+ in cash on hand along with his multi-billion dollar property portfolio.

    If that was actually true then the bond should be a simple thing to secure.

    But it isn't remotely close to true and over the next 30 days in the run up to the appeal/payment deadline, the whole house of cards he has built about how amazing and successful he is is going to come crashing down around him.

    Everyone knows he's full of sh!t about his wealth , but we are about to get absolute definitive proof of that and it will be the end of his ego.

    Forcing a narcissist to face their actual reality never goes well.

    The melt-down he will have will be unrecoverable.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 95 ✭✭gneel


    What would happen if Trump simply refused to pay? It seems like Alex Jones hasn't paid a cent yet either to the Sandy Hook parents. I get the impression that rich Americans just don't pay up when they don't want to.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,157 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    Alex Jones is a civil case similar to E Jean Carrolls and you can appeal and drag that out for quite a while, this fraud case was brought by the State of NY, if he refuses to pay they will just start seizing assets.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 17,016 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Exactly - They already have the auditor/controller in place.

    Once the 30 day deadline is past , they simply start seizing assets.

    The second the deadline passes , there will be bailiffs at every Trump owned property in NY changing locks and seizing control.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,132 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    Jared got what, 6bn portfolio management from Saudi Arabia. Couldn't he, or the Saudis directly, simply bail him out?

    Given the massive tax breaks he gave last term, and will probably look to do again, coupled with the military budgets etc that he will have control over where he to win POTUS again, surely getting 500m from a few sources isn't that big of a deal.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 17,016 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    They could perhaps , but they also know that the optics of that would be appalling and likely terminally damage his election chances thereby making the value of the investment moot.

    Jared got huge money from the Saudis , but it's not "his" , it's still their money , he just gets to charge them hefty management fees etc.

    So him re-directing half a billion dollars of Saudi money to bail out Trump would be viewed horribly.

    It's not like Trump "selling" some property for 10x of its actual value to some Oligarch to hide the grift.

    Wherever the money comes from it will have to be completely transparent and that's the problem and why none of his usual ways he uses to dig himself out of a hole are realistic options.

    He has to find the money legitimately and he simply can't.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,020 ✭✭✭✭duploelabs




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 30,182 ✭✭✭✭looksee


    And then there's Jared with billions, surely he would cough up? Ha!

    Trump really does have 'shot in the foot' syndrome, the reason the fines were so huge is that he has bigged-up his wealth and the court had to take account of that to make the fine effective.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,614 ✭✭✭francois




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,132 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    Why does it matter where he gets the money? He will lie about it and the GOP will back him 100% and any attempt to show where it came from will be laughed off as MSM deep state nonsense.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,036 ✭✭✭TinyMuffin


    When you’re the AG you get away with that kind of thing. You can grab them by the assets.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,332 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    But Judge Jones has to approve any move by Trump business companies. A lot of people thought this case was a side issue in Trump's problems. Turns out to be central.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 17,016 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Exactly - It's the oversight and transparency requirements that make it almost impossible for him to get the money.

    No legitimate lender will give him the money and any "lender" with ulterior motives that might have been open to "owning" a potential President will not want the focus and attention that getting involved now would bring.

    And even if he could get it past Judge Jones , whilst MAGA-world would ignore or explain away him getting cash from some extremely dodgy source , the rest of the electorate will not.

    55% of ALL voters have said that a criminal conviction for Trump would mean they definitely would not vote for him. I suspect that similar numbers would hold the same view of Trump getting a half a billion dollars from the Saudis or whoever to pay off his court fines.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,202 ✭✭✭political analyst


    Saying "I don't know whether a certain man is a rapist" does not equate to saying "That certain man is not a rapist". I didn't say it would be OK if Trump was re-elected - regardless of whether the rape case was civil or criminal. As I said, I don't want him to be re-elected. However, none of us has the power to decided whether or not he becomes president again. So don't put words in my mouth!



This discussion has been closed.
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