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"average Dublin house prices should fall to ‘the €300,000 mark" according to Many Lou McD.

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,403 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ...as it stands at the moment, its highly unlikely any of our political parties can resolve our housing issues, no one truly knows what to do about it, due to the complexities of the problem, so anything anyone proposes more than likely wont work in particular in the short term, but its been clearly obvious, and for many years now, whatever ffg propose, or even proposed, simply wont work, and in fact, i.e. its been obvious their policies would simply exasperate the problem, and thats exactly what has happened.....



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    Not so sure about that, Sinn Fein are incompetent from top to bottom and I could see them still rejecting. After all they have made excuses already that one term won't resolve the housing and they would need two

    They have ran a campaign from what I can see for years to block houses, this included their stint at DCC when they drove the units down instead of up during their reign.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,403 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    true, its a significant supply problem, only problem is, ffg have largely ignored the severity of this supply problem, ignoring what respected commentators have been advocating for, i.e. effectively double the figures of what ffg have been proposing, our governments, past and present, have also largely ignored the resources thats required to achieve these numbers, i.e. training thats required. so we re now left with an extremely serious supply problem, a major deficit in supply, and a major deficit in people able to build whats required, all of which will require years, if not decades to resolve....



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    I love the melodrama

    Maybe if parties stopped blocking apartments/houses and delaying projects for years plus driving up the costs.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,403 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ...theres no melodrama here, this is our now reality, again, we re now experiencing an extremely serious housing deficit, of which was actually foreseen for many years, reported since the height of the last crash, all governments since then have been deeply misinformed of its seriousness, and have been making bad decisions after bad decisions since, so much so, we actually dont know what to do next....

    ...yes the blocking of developments have very badly effected completions, but our problems are in fact far deeper, our state simply doesnt know what to do next, and again, that includes all parties....

    ...this problem will persist into the next decade, by then there will more than likely be significant social and political problems, including the potential of an extreme party, similar to other nations....



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,366 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    It should be noted that there will be 35k homes built this year.

    Thats the entire housing stock of Galway City. So building Galway in 12 months isnt too shabby an output.

    It was broadly the same number last year, too.

    We do need to build quicker, I agree. But if we are building Galway City every 12 months, we aren't doing nothing.

    And what would those numbers drop to under a SF led govt?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,366 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Because they are anti investment funds (openly) but they fail to see that without investment funds, most residential construction projects aren't viable and simply wont be built.

    Post edited by Boards.ie: Mike on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,293 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Once you start building houses, you reduce HAP levels bit by bit.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,350 ✭✭✭Blut2


    35k is not an impressive number, it should not be being applauded.

    Our population increased by by approx 100k last year, and in 2022, and will likely increase by similar this year. That increase requires about 40,000 houses built just to accomodate them. Nevermind replace existing housing units, or make any dent in the housing crisis.

    35k home is far less than we need. The ESRI's most recent estimate is 60k+ a year.

    Twenty years ago, with a much smaller population, we were building 90k a year.

    Its an utter failure of our current government's policies that the housing completion numbers haven't increased faster.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    Oh it’s all melodrama, quite amusing to read it to be honest.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,754 ✭✭✭Former Former Former


    If their plan is for councils to build the houses themselves rather than private developers, then there will be an enormous fall-off in efficiency and an enormous increase in delivery time, because the councils simply have no experience in doing this or qualified people to do it.

    Maybe it will pay off after ten or twenty years but in the short to medium term, the numbers will collapse.

    Post edited by Boards.ie: Mike on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,366 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Its not nothing was my point.

    I said we should be delivering more, but some people go on as if there is nothing being built.

    Dublin is swamped with apartment developments at the moment.

    The 90k homes was when we had a much larger construction work force, so we wont hit those numbers, but I think we should be working towards 50k.



  • Posts: 3,330 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    What was the quality of those 90k units? How many of them are riddled with pyrite and mica issues. Quality, not quantity.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    We still have estates gettin repairs at the moment with poor quality.

    Plus the price of houses for both would increase because the councils would have to take staff off constuction companies and that would require higher wages....so instead of reducing the price it would increase the overall price per unit



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,350 ✭✭✭Blut2


    Thats not correct. We had the same number of construction workers in 2004 as in 2023. In 2004 we built just under 80,000 housing units. The difference is in what we're using our construction workers for now - a lot more are working on non-residential building. Thats down to bad governmental policy.

    cSuojzb.png

    How many of the 600,000+ housing units built in the 2000s have mica and pyrite issues? A fraction. I'm sure a fraction of the houses built in the 2020s will have currently unforeseen quality issues in twenty years too.

    But even allowing for higher building standards having an effect to reduce completions by 10% or 20%, being very generous, would still make no difference - we're only building circa *1/4* of what we were, per capita. Thats an inexcusable amount.

    And obviously wildly unsustainably low given our current population growth rate.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,602 ✭✭✭thereiver


    In the 90s a single person working could buy a house in Dublin

    now for most people it takes 2 salary's the population has increased there's not enough houses or apartments to meet demand Dublin has transformed in the last 20 years since the big tech company's arrived

    There's an option to change old office buildings that are empty to housing

    And it costs 250k plus to build a house

    The cost of building labour materials has increased



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,366 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    So the residential construction workforce, which is all that matters when discussing residential output, is lower now than it was in the 2000s.

    Obviously with the slowdown in commercial construction from this year onwards, we should see more workforce diverted to resi, which is one of the reasons we expect to see an uptick this year.

    Also, the building standards will have changed since 2004 and this of course will have a time impact on completions.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    Building standards have massively increased, which is good, a house built in 2004 shouldn't need upgrades only 20 years later yet they are all required to get upgrades in a lot of cases.

    The houses getting built now are at a high rating which will mean in 20 years time they shouldn't require upgrades.

    I rented houses built in that era and it felt like you lived with your neighbour in some of them.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,350 ✭✭✭Blut2


    The residential construction workforce being lower as a proportion of the overall construction workforce is something the government has a large amount of control over. With effective policymaking this could have been changed at any time, with a subsequent very large positive impact on our housing output. The fact it wasn't done is a very clear policy failure.

    The building standards changing doesn't account for our current output being at circa one quarter per capita of what it was 20 years ago. It hasn't gotten 400% more labour intensive to build a house.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,366 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Other non resi projects would not be delivered though. There are plenty of essential infrastrucutre projects, aside from home building.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,350 ✭✭✭Blut2


    Yes, other non-residential projects, primarily commercial. Which is currently facing into a huge downturn, due to massive over building over the last few years. Dublin's office vacancy rate has increased to 15% at the end of 2023, and is forecast to keep rising steadily this year. The commercial market is in crisis.

    Imagine if all those builders had been building houses instead of offices for the past 3 years? And they could very easily, if only we'd had a government who weren't ideologically opposed to intervening in the housing market at all costs. Its, again, a very clear planning and policy failure.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,715 ✭✭✭hometruths



    On your second point - is it that you think the ‘worst’ parts of Dublin should show bigger price differentials to the ‘best’. I.e. Dalkey should be more than twice the average price of Tallaght or whatever the actual figures are?

    I'd given up looking for the article but then Browney7 posted it in the property market thread this morning!

    The impact of these Hap price floors, in tandem with RPZ rental growth caps, has created an unusually narrow rental distribution for a major Western city. This should be of paramount importance to policy makers, as we have effectively regulated away affordable areas of our city.

    Screenshot 2024-02-19 at 08.40.03.png

    In most cities in this analysis, the difference in average rent for a standard two-bed flat between the best and worst locations was a multiple of 2.8x. Dublin was considerably narrower at 1.7x, meaning the low end of the market was proportionally more expensive than the high end.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,473 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    What about the potential reduction in dysfunction for the areas that are being changed? What about the people who are being forced to live further aware from the critical social needs you mention due to HAP pricing them out of their desired areas?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,457 ✭✭✭SharkMX


    My parents both from a Dublin suburb (was countryside even when i was young) had 8 and 7 siblings.

    Every one of them left Ireland before or just after the end of secondary school.

    All of them (bar one who died), some with spouses and children in tow came back to live in Ireland between 1994 and 2000. Only 2 of them could afford to buy near their parents. The rest scattered and most bought houses further out.

    The 90s wasnt just a time when it was possible to get a job in Ireland after school, but it was a time when a couple of generations that emigrated before also came home to jobs here and all looking for homes. It was also a time when it became normal to expect both of a couple to have a job in order to contribute to the mortgage. So much demand arrived in the country at that time.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,293 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    It is only the current generation that have demanded to be able to live beside their parents in houses as big as their parents. It is a very recent phenonemon.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,661 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    And the current generation expect to be able to go on stag / hen trips abroad, buy takeaway coffees, have designer furniture and clothes etc, more bank holidays and shorter working weeks, shorter working lives ( in my parents and grandparents time many if not most started working by their mid teens) etc at the same time.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,457 ✭✭✭SharkMX


    Which ones had country/citywide rent controls?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,403 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    again, the issue with uprooting people would more than likely induce even more dysfunction into society as a whole, yes you may improve an area, but you simply move the dysfunctions elsewhere, and possibly/probably magnify those dysfunctions, creating an even bigger problem elsewhere, which in turn just ultimately drains the greater social systems/institutions such as our legal system, welfare system, health system, educational system etc etc, i.e. it actually ends up just creating an even bigger problem on the grander scale.....

    helping to maintain some sort of social cohesion is critical in reducing and limiting these social dysfunctions, forcing a large proportion of people out of areas, induces brake down in these critical social networks, increasing the likelihood of issues such as mental health issue, addiction issues, crime, you end up effectively opening Pandora's box, in which is next to impossible to truly resolve, i.e. theres critical points of social dysfunction of when induced, such as those mentioned, i.e. mental health issues, addiction, crime etc, it becomes next to impossible to eradicate them once induced, i.e. you end up in long term, even generational dysfunction, so the key is to try prevent it from happening in the first place, long term unemployment is commonly also induced under such conditions, in which of course, all taxpayers ultimately pay the price, i.e. we shot ourselves in the foot by inducing such outcomes, i.e. prevention is better than the cure(which in many circumstances, simply never happens, even generationally)....



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