Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Where are people getting 30%drops and IMO the way the game is rigged here prices will not be dropping for at least another 10 years and that's only if our population size stopped growing for the next 10 years and the builders built maybe double the amount of houses than what is currently being built. The way this works is any threat to prices builders pull back and wait for demand through emigration which is not easing any time soon. Also people are coding themselves if they think homeowners want to see prices drop there may be a small % but in the main why would you want an asset to drop in price when it would impact on the size of the inheritance left behind for kids/grand kids and other family members. Even the world wide shocks over the last number of years Brexit, Covid, Ukraine as well as the recent ECB interest rate increases prices have still gone up with the exception of a modest drop at the start of 2020 and then it went gang busters again. Throw in our archaic laws about repossession that we dont really do its hard to see where the supply will be coming from. I really thought modular homes would of ticked up by now but that stream of supply seems to have gone very quiet I wonder it the construction lobby have been a flea in the ear of government. Ireland is not your typical market our country is seen as a beacon that others from the outside looking in can make a decent living or live on a very generous welfare handouts and their kids get a relatively good level of education. Until the world catches up or we decide to cut welfare or our education system hits the skids we are going to see the numbers coming here increase and more demand and a continued under supply of houses = higher prices.

A competent pension fund would be delighted with an inflation linked bond as opposed to the 0ish rate bonds that almost blew up the British pensions sector in 2022 and US banking in 2023

First objective of a pension fund is to protect customers wealth from inflation

Quietly under the surface, the Irish are sterilising themselves. Good job we get so many migrants. Who wil preserve the "value" of your homes

Maybe many of our elders see this and that's why 63% of homeowners want house prices to drop

There is a different type of house, surprisingly not snapped yet.

It is only the middle bit.

It's nonsense, plain and simple. You'd need the 2008 financial crisis to happen again to be near a 30% drop in prices.

There's nothing that indicates something similar will happen. Material and labour costs are too high, demand is too high, immigration is high, supply is too low. Lending controls mean that mortgage debt is much less than it was in early 2000's.

No indication that supply will rise to the numbers needed any time in the next 5 years.

Supply is a big issue. They're building maybe half as many houses to meet the demand and that number is only rising gradually. Planning permissions last year are maybe 1/3 of what was granted in the early 2000's. There's no quick end in sight for this that I can see.

That's the crux of it. How many loans would banks give developers when the selling price of a house could be impacted by legislation to hit an arbitrary price target?

IMO House prices are destined for small decreases as interest rates bite, but the large drops people are hoping for won't happen. I would be surprised if we get even a 3% drop YOY over the next few years.

Also, I don't see interest rates from Irish lenders decreasing in the next 3 years at least, even if the ECB drops their rate.

I think you’re missing the point……pension funds already invest in property. Who do you think the investors are in the funds that have been buying property left right and centre. Are you saying we need more of this? Think about it and the impact it has on the market.

As for gilts or government bonds these are considered one of the safest assets to invest in and much safer than property. It is more or less as risky as holding cash unless the are issued by some banana republic.

British pension sector issue you mention was not an issue about Bonds but how they were subsequently used. (I.e. they were in effect shorted to make extra money and people got caught with their pants down)

us banking issue was yet again not due to bonds but due to power management decisions who made a big risky bet that rates would not rise…..it was pure greed and nothing more.

+1 to all of this, apart from the holiday home.

I'm an owner of two properties and I'd love if prices dropped by 30% tomorrow. I've got a significant outstanding mortgage (I'm young-ish) on one of them so in theory would be more impacted than most by potentially being moved slightly into negative equity if the drop was that much. But I don't plan on selling any time for a few decades so in reality it wouldn't mean anything negative for my day to day life.

It would, however, help my friends and family who're not home owners yet to buy. And would help my business get staff. And, on a general basis, I'd feel happier with more Irish people able to own their own homes. All three of those make such a drop completely worth it to me. And according to both the polls and my own anecdotal evidence, a majority of other homeowners too.

What people say and what people do in privacy of the ballot box cam be two different things. I see posts on here all the time with this humble brag stuff where they are saying I bought my place for X and now the houses are selling for Y and feel so bad. People love that their houses are worth more. Its an asset. The more value the more equity. That might be equity they can release in retirement through downsizing or equity release loan or inheritance for kids. It does matter and its not an Irish thing. A proper functioning market should have low single digit annual growth. If house prices are only rising 2% it wont create a frenzy. And I do support the view that grants should be unwound including rent a room. Should be withdrawn over a number of years. Itll just remove the heat from market and might even lead to falls. Critically it will stop people rushing to buy today for fear of they dont house buying might be out of reach. That becomes a vicious cycle when sets in as everyone rushes to buy.

Owning 2 homes(one seemingly mortgage free) and your own business at a young age puts you in a pretty privileged position to be able to say something like that. Might get your hands on a few more homes with a 30% drop too!

That poster seems to be banned, but the whole 'I want the world to fall apart so I can get my house/have others that have one feel my pain' is the shittiest opinion to have. Actively hoping for other people's lives to be negatively impacted, just so you can get something is just pure crap.

The phasing out period of the Amateur Landlord boom has resulted in a lot of poorly to zero maintained homes going on the market - some of them are really awful and shocking when you look back on google maps and can see people were actually living in them. The pre 63 sales that appear on b2b sites are the most horrific of them all.