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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,457 ✭✭✭SharkMX


    I worked out a while ago that if went on the dole today that i have already paid enough in taxes to pay me the dole for the rest of my life. I thought that was kid of funny, but sure once you are a tax slave you are there to be milked. Get my teeth cleaned every year on it though, so there is that.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,037 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Fair point, probably emphasises the need to for a bit of balancing of tax to move some of the burden to property particularly as it is a significant drag on the economy and cost to the state



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,132 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    "Tax slave" is a little harsh. I much prefer "GDP Cattle".



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,620 ✭✭✭combat14


    Value of property deals plunges to 10-year low as US and Germany stop buying

    Sharply higher interest rates are also affecting would-be buyers.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,620 ✭✭✭combat14


    europe's powerhouse economy:


    Germany ‘in permanent crisis’ as property market crumbles

    Recession beckons for Europe’s largest economy as it shrinks in latest quarter

    Property prices are falling and developers are cancelling projects, prompting a downturn in the construction industry.





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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 645 ✭✭✭J_1980


    German market has nothing to do with Ireland. Prices are far higher and rents much lower, hence rents are still ferociously rising while prices stagnate.


    in Ireland, rents are flattening out while prices are still largely too cheap.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,095 ✭✭✭shoegirl


    Very much so - German economy is also struggling to deal with the impact of climate mitigation and the Ukraine invasion. They are heavily gas dependent, and didn't do enough mitigation to renewables when they decided to shut nuclear stations.

    Ireland is still reeling from the impact of the 2008 recession in ways Germany is not. We had a lower number of homes per capita that was beginning to be addressed (legacy of large families, communal/institutional living & high emigration) when the great recession hit and fell further behind after the construction sector collapsed. They have 515 homes per 1000 citizens compared to 415 in Ireland.

    Number of dwellings per 1,000 citizens Europe 2022 | Statista



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Not so long ago (May 23) the Irish Times was telling us that "The problems facing Germany’s second most expensive rental market are not dissimilar to our own: a lack of new-builds, a surge of new arrivals and a failed rent-cap attempt"

    And in August DW was saying that the sky high rents and purchase prices were caused by not building enough:

    According to a study by the Eduard Pestel Institute for Systems Research, Germany lacks more than 700,000 apartments — especially in the affordable segment. The German government had announced plans to build 400,000 new homes per year. In reality, just over half will be achieved this year, and in 2024 the target will be missed by an even greater margin.

    How quickly things change.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,132 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    If they kept the nuclear power plants, wouldn't that have helped with climate mitigation?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    The main difference between the German property market and the Irish property market are the central bank rules that exist in Ireland v the non-existence in Germany. Which meant Germany house prices are more impacted by rate rises. This Risk has been called out to them by ESRB since 2015..



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,462 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    If prices are too cheap why dpes BNPs data show institutions are no longer buying?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 645 ✭✭✭J_1980


    Rental laws, political uncertainty etc

    most new houses and apartments are basically just construction costs + vat. At current inflation rates you can’t lose unless some government goons force you to eat losses by renting at some low rent.


    Left wing western europe is just economically collapsing. Once Germany ends up in the garbage bin, the EUR will hopefully follow. This continent needs a capitalist reset once the trust of the EUR (basically decades of Bundesbank DEM trust) are eroded.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,886 ✭✭✭Roberto_gas


    I have seen couple of properties back in market after sales fall through..reason buyers pulled out due to being nervous whatever that means ! I dont trust the agents at all



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    There would be other a few other significant differences - not least that the slight majority (just over 50%) of Germans rent rather than buy.

    Of course this means that the most active buyers are investors. So the marginal buyers in the market are particularly sensitive to the interest rate rises.

    I'd be surprised if the marginal buyers in the Irish market are subject to the CB lending rules.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    most new houses and apartments are basically just construction costs + vat.

    Where are you getting this from?



  • Posts: 14,768 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Over the last few months there have been a number of posts questioning why construction costs are more costly here when compared to NI/UK. Surprisingly, one factor not mentioned is site purchase costs. This article outlines some of the variables which add to costs here.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,620 ✭✭✭combat14


    and yet despite all the "high standards" and high prices here we have been beset by pyrite, mica and fire safety scandals that would make any sane buyer questionning purchasing property here



  • Posts: 14,768 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Are a lot of the current regulations not a result of acknowledged mistakes in the past which allowed for the problems you mention? And, are the mica/pyrite problems not limited to a small number of block suppliers?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,457 ✭✭✭SharkMX


    I know a few people who still think Homebond is worth the paper its written on.

    When the pyrite problem appeared they covered people, until they found that there were a lot more houses with pyrite. Then suddenly homebond wasnt worth the paper it was written on. Scam.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,037 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Self regulation was the major problem and still remains. There have been incidents linked here where offenders are building in the same development for the state where defective apartments were built with the state picking up the bill while the developer gives 2 fingers



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,132 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    There are a LOT of Celtic Tiger era builds that are really not looking their best these days, and there a plethora of cases of apartment blocks with issues. There's an apartment block near my house that's of the era, and it really does look rough. A lot of the houses from that time were of poor quality too, and one has to wonder how they will fare in another 20 years.

    One would hope that the current generation of new builds are of a higher quality, but we may be assured of one thing; the builders will be long gone if there are problems with them in 20 years.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,699 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    It really depends on what you mean by "not looking their best"

    I've seen plenty of houses with black and pink discolouration on the render because it was never cleaned.

    Broken gutters because they were never maintained.

    Damaged window seals in a house near 20 years old? The odd one is to be expected.

    Interior condensation because the vents have become blocked (sometimes intentionally)

    It takes work to maintain a house and many people won't or can't do it. Obviously there are plenty of cases of poor design and construction, but most of this stuff is purely down to age and lack of maintenance.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,132 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    Well in the block I'm thinking of, the render is filthy, and the window frames are covered in moss on the outside. It doesn't seem especially well-maintained, so I'd wonder how much the management company is doing for the property.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,487 ✭✭✭herbalplants


    Funny part, the houses I have seen that fell through and came back on the market, they came back at a higher price, possibly the price they went sale agreed as. So looney tune bids high then cannot afford it and pulls out and the house goes back on the market at what looney tune offered. It should be back on the market at the price originally advertised months previously.

    Remember the shills only get paid when you react to them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 2,991 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    From my own experience so many Sale Agreeds fall through because an agent's fibs and/or omissions got rumbled.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,886 ✭✭✭Roberto_gas


    exactly....makes me wonder if the seller actually got greedy and relisted it for higher offers !



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,658 ✭✭✭Royale with Cheese


    I went sale agreed 3 times last year, didn't buy any of them.

    1. The house was a bit of a wreck and needed an extension, we budgeted €450k for renovations and an extension and an architect gave us rough costs or €700k to do the work we wanted. Had this more or less verified by a QS and withdrew our offer almost immediately.

    2. The house was supposed to be B3 rated and in great condition but a survey threw up a lot of little issues and we caught the seller outright lying about one of them when queried on it so we didn't trust a thing we were being told about the house and pulled out. It was very expensive for what it was and only made any kind of sense of you didn't need to put a cent into the existing structure, that wasn't the case. It was taken off the market before Christmas, didn't sell. The agent was also somebody you wouldn't trust in the slightest.

    3. Great house, loved it and we were very happy with the price even though we'd agreed to pay €45k over asking, no issues with the survey this time. 7 weeks go by and the deal hasn't moved an inch, eventually the estate agent calls us to tell us the sellers are getting divorced (not disclosed to us initially, we were told their kids had grown up and they wanted to downsize) and the wife now wants to pause the whole thing (husband very much the opposite). We were fed some bullshít about her changing solicitors and this being her new legal advice but I'm pretty sure she never had any intention of selling the house based on how the process never moved at all. I'm guessing she played along with the sale in order to get the husband to move out and then reneged on it as soon as he was gone so she could stay living there by herself.

    So there you go, three different reasons why a sale might fall through. I doubt an agent would be honest with anyone about the first two, and the third one the house wasn't for sale anyway so they just took the ad down and I doubt it will be going back on the market anytime soon. I would say she fed us a lot of bullshít about why the seller has changed their mind to save face, she got duped by them initially.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 2,991 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    Thinking about case 2, I think it is common practice for EAs to omit certain details and then try to bounce the buyer into signing once they have blown a few grand on engineer fees.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 852 ✭✭✭FernandoTorres


    What kind of extension were you looking at? I'm in the same boat trying to weigh up buying an already extended or doing it myself. Most things online will say cost is 2,500-3,000 per sqm. We'd be looking at a 50-70sq m extension which would be in our budget but then all I hear are stories of people being quoted 300-400k for a bog standard semi d extension. 700k sounds like madness!



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,658 ✭✭✭Royale with Cheese


    Standard rear extension but also knocking down the god awful garage conversion they'd stuck their kitchen in and replacing it with a two storey side extension. It was a big job alright but the rough costs we were given were €4000-5000 per m² to build and 80% of that to renovate. We were working off figures of €3000-3500 per m² as my wife's parents had only finished a massive job in their house 6 months prior and this is what they paid, but the architect assured us that things had got considerably worse since they went to tender. We were shocked, as was the estate agent who was there, but we verified the right costs with the QS from my in laws job and he said hard to give exact estimates they weren't too far off. Most of our €450k would have gone on must renovating the existing house which wasn't massive. It needed to be gutted though. The architect said it was basically pure gouging at this point and he was seeing a lot of jobs go to tender but not go any further so he expected costs to come back down slightly soon enough, we hadn't signed contracts yet though so just ran a mile.

    This was south Dublin, I'm told the cost to build here is the worst in the country. It put us right off anywhere that needed any kind of major building work anyway.



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