Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Either way, if Putin is allowed to think that he is victorious, either by a partial or complete takeover of Ukraine, that will trigger more war in him. The Poles share a border with Russia, they don't need to go through Ukraine, and they themselves have said several years ago, that war between them and Russia is inevitable, it's only a matter of time, and that's what they are preparing for even now. They're not going to be caught unprepared, unlike Ukraine and that's for sure! No, I don't believe that Putin will win in Ukraine, even if Trump gets re-elected (and I doubt that will happen either, but with US politics, you just do not know) Europe is wide awake now to the threat that Putin poses and are ramping up weapon production and tightening the sanctions. I think that Putin will be stopped in Ukraine. The question is, which (if any) part?

you are smashing all the arguments together, the most likely outcome is either the borders stay the same as they are now or Russia take a couple more areas to the west, it would still leave Ukraine over 60%-80% intact. That does not put Poland "next" on the list and the only border that Russia shares with Poland is the exclave of Kaliningrad, that's not a feasible staging area, it would kind of tip off NATO

"As for your argument, GDP doesn't put boots on the ground and clearly not even arty shells in a cannon."

The EU had supplied over 223,000artillery shells to Ukraine already back in August last year.

Production of artillery shells in the EU has increased since putin's attack on Ukraine and is on track to allow EU supplies to Ukraine meet the 1million shells per year target.

As for boots on the ground there are millions of Ukrainians still in their country eager to avoid whatever treatment putin intends for them in his attempts to conquer new land for his empire. Lots of reports of EU arms manufacturers going into joint production agreements with Ukraine and every penny the EU puts into Ukraine to build up their capacity to defend themselves is money well spent in defusing putin's terrorist state's ability to wage war on its neighbours and further afield. The EU has woken up to the threat posed by putin's attempts to emulate the military dictators of history and the orange moron in the USA won't be able to help putin as much as he might like to.

President Trump on another mad one again today. Encouraging Russia to attack European countries. Hilarious, if batsht. As usual for US presidents.

I didn't say that other US presidents have had Trumps particular strain of instability. But rather that its usual that they're batsht. This can be seen in sleepy Joe, fool me once Dubya, blowie Bill, sleepy Ronald, or helicopter nixon. The Americans sure do pick some doozies. I have abs from laughing at US presidents. They're nearly always mental.

That will come up in part 2!!! (if Tucker can be persuaded to come back..)

The contract is for $10 billion, quite a large figure. I would expect defense countries within Europe could develop a similar system seeing as how they can produce AA systems and cruise missiles.

So I suspect it's down to urgency and it's also battle tested. It's just a massive amount of launchers (~500) Considering the limited range of missiles Ukraine has been given, they can still hit anywhere on the frontline with just 8 launchers.

there is an arty shortage in Ukraine, 225K shells is well short of a thousand a day , dont Ukraine need to be firing 5-10K a day?

How do you envision this East/West Ukraine coming about? Do you think it would be an agreement between Ukraine and Russia?

I never said the 224,000 shells figure was a number for the annual supply to Ukraine. It looks to me like you are deliberately trying to miss represent what I have posted.The figure the EU has set as an initial target for supplying to Ukraine is 1000,000 shells per annum which equates to over 2,700shells per day.

Ukraine is also producing its own ammunition and there are other countries outside the EU supplying weapons to Ukraine to help them defend themselves from aggression from putin's forces. I can't answer your question on how many shells Ukraine needs to fire to defend itself from putin but it seems from what I have seen that they are more reliant on drones and the accurate use of more modern artillery and missiles which may get more effect from less numbers of units fired. Its not like they are copying the tactic of putin's forces of simply using dumb artillery shells to demolish towns and cities.

Just checked there and the figure Ukraine's armed forces have posted for artillery systems they have eliminated is 9475 so maybe it is putin's forces that now have an artillery shortage in Ukraine and since this is such a central part of their offensive strategy it makes further gains of territory by putin less likely.

it all shapes up that 24 will not be a good year for Ukraine, currently arty shells are selling for up to $8K each which is multiples of the production cost, which means there is too much money chasing too few shells, possibly Israel adding to the demand as well. These supply issues cant turn around quickly, it could be 12 to 18 months

I wouldn't think another aid package would be needed for these cluster shells to be sent to Ukraine. I read somewhere that the USA has decided they will not be using them anyway. They could just be sold to Ukraine for a nominal fee for disposal.