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Hi all, please see this major site announcement: https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058427594/boards-ie-2026

A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Niccolò Machiavelli :

    "To ally with great powers to defeat your neighbour is a strategic trap; if you win, you become the slave of the greater power; if the allied power is defeated, you remain alone and defenceless against the angry neighbour, and you are destroyed." - Niccolò Machiavelli



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,636 ✭✭✭the.red.baron


    the word global is in the thread title

    this is GDP, which mean little

    theres no recession, europe as a whole, not in recession



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭brickster69


    It is nigh on impossible for a global recession to happen when many countries are having 7% growth now. It will take years to happen. A little recession is not the end of the world you know.

    Niccolò Machiavelli :

    "To ally with great powers to defeat your neighbour is a strategic trap; if you win, you become the slave of the greater power; if the allied power is defeated, you remain alone and defenceless against the angry neighbour, and you are destroyed." - Niccolò Machiavelli



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 42,047 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    /thread

    I'm partial to your abracadabra
    I'm raptured by the joy of it all



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Global economy GDP expected to grow in 2024

    gdp.png


    Niccolò Machiavelli :

    "To ally with great powers to defeat your neighbour is a strategic trap; if you win, you become the slave of the greater power; if the allied power is defeated, you remain alone and defenceless against the angry neighbour, and you are destroyed." - Niccolò Machiavelli



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,146 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135


    Has Keynesian left wing ideology economics caused all of the problems we are seeing today......I reckon it has, bring back Milton



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 558 ✭✭✭Gussoe


    According to an article in the WSJ, it will only feel like a recession.

    WSJ1.jpg




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,819 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    "Your living standards will erode, but companies will still post growing profits and GDP numbers keep climbing"



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Niccolò Machiavelli :

    "To ally with great powers to defeat your neighbour is a strategic trap; if you win, you become the slave of the greater power; if the allied power is defeated, you remain alone and defenceless against the angry neighbour, and you are destroyed." - Niccolò Machiavelli



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,777 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ...neoclassical economics is actually the main and most predominant school of thought, thought today, and yes, its a train wreck, with its supplies and demands, equilibriums, rationally expecting humans, and lets just completely ignore the true functions of our financial systems, in particular its ability to create money in the form of credit, shur what could go wrong when this form of money is pumped into our asset markets, inflating their prices, be grand im sure!



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 19,955 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    2 points. Firstly, I work in finance and we (different company at the time) were preparing "recession ready playbooks" in Q4 2019. I was working in credit risk and it was a buzzword until covid hit. This has been expected for some time, if it is a recession. Covid delayed things. Secondly, I don't see why you're happy with this. Recessions disproportionately affect the lower and middle classes. If you have active income (ie a job) you are more likely to be hit than someone who is super wealthy and has passive income (ie investments). The upper classes often make money in recessions. For someone who often espouses the evils of modern capitalism and seems to be pro communist/socialist like yourself, shouldn't you be pro the worker class and not the top 1%?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,399 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Ah the constant railing against "the system man".

    Okay, let's hear it, what's your alternative to the current that doesn't involve some batshiat state control or libertarian woo, please enlighten us. Let's pick Denmark, for example, what practical straightforward changes would you implement to positively improve the economic situation there..

    (And no deflection, soapboxing or whataboutery please)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,777 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    happy, id be grateful if you could show me where i have been expressing 'happiness' about this! please be a specific as possible, thank you!

    i agree with a lot of what you said about the serious problems regarding downturns/recessions!

    please show me where i express my support for ideologies such as communism/socialism????

    ...as its clearly obvious how successful capitalism has been, globally, china being a perfect example, but even ireland also being and major gainer!!!

    ...you free market fundamentalists would wanna grow up a bit! capatalism hasnt always been like this, it in fact has gone through many different iterations in its lifetime, our current iteration ultimate began in 70's/80's, its clearly catastrophically failing all humans now, including the wealthy, particularly in regards our environmental issues etc

    no idea, dont know anything about denmark! what ideas have you?

    ...theres plenty of well respected commentators now that have been expressing the dangers of neoclassical economics, some in fact are well respected academics, who have been expressing these view for decades, long before the 08 crash, some even realising some years previous to the crash, that there would indeed be a crash, largely due to our over reliance on credit based money, you know, the kinna folks that were recommended to commit suicide, prior to 08, those folks!

    ...we ve clearly decided it best to simply just continue to ignore these views, and plough on, im sure it ll be just fine, we definitely wont relive any sort of credit fueled asset bubbles, particularly in relation to property, we got learned!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,636 ✭✭✭the.red.baron


    this is the point of the thread and the point I was making

    yet someone tried to say ireland was in recession, which of course it aint

    despite the doom and gloom



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 19,955 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    The post I quoted was what lead me to believe you were happy. It is a phrase used in Italia 90 and thus had those connotations.

    Capitalism in its current guise (market bailouts, government intervention in rental market, etc) is not aligned with what I woudl want anyway, it's a hodge podge of socialism and capitalism where neither party is happy with the outcome.

    PS: The next sub prime crisis in credit will either be in PCP car finance or BNPL or both. "We" learned nothing from the GFC!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 558 ✭✭✭Gussoe


    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2024/01/26/ireland-remains-in-technical-recession-as-gdp-shrinks-once-more/#:~:text=GDP%20for%20the%20full%20year,economy%20is%20technically%20in%20recession.

    It said GDP is also estimated to have decreased by 3.4 per cent when compared with the same quarter in 2022. GDP for the full year 2023 is estimated to have decreased by 1.9 per cent when compared with 2022.

    This was the fifth consecutive quarter of decline, meaning that the Irish economy is technically in recession.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,399 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    no idea

    Exactly.

    You have no idea, but are 100% certain of a perpetual belief that everything is going to crash, any day now, for the last decade. And that there's some magic economics that would be infinitely better than the current but you or no one can explain what it is without going into loon territory. Got it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,636 ✭✭✭the.red.baron


    gdp is not the irish economy and this is a global recession is on the horizon

    global



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    The current system is far from perfect but as you say no ideas to change it….i asked the same question a few years back from OP and all you get is his usual mantra of public debt is good private debt is bad and the current system is to complicated for anyone to understand….but yet no alternative to put forward….



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,819 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Successive quarters of shrinking GDP is the technical term for a recession. Ireland is in recession. You were wrong.

    It might not be an accurate reflection of the domestic economy, but Ireland of today is more than just the domestic Irish economy. It is a globally focused economy, our exchequer is reliant on global corporation taxes - GDP shrinking impacts the country as a whole, even if the reason for GDP decline is primarily due to global MNC performance.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,617 ✭✭✭joseywhales


    Please tell me noone is trading car loan backed securities.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 19,955 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    I'm not involved in it thankfully but it is big business. Already going downhill though, however the impact may have been paused with the recent increase in used car prices. Additionally to the below, companies like Carvana in the US are a good beacon of how the used car finance is going. (hint: not good)

    https://www.propublica.org/article/wall-street-bet-big-on-used-car-loans-now-crisis-may-be-looming



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 34,126 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    According to Bloomberg News, lenders sold bonds containing $76 billion in subprime loans in 2021 and 2022

    While it has worrying parallels to the subprime mortgage issue, the scale is utterly tiny in comparison. The failure of the market would be a ripple, not a tidal wave.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Looks like the real estate sector is crashing in Germany.


    Niccolò Machiavelli :

    "To ally with great powers to defeat your neighbour is a strategic trap; if you win, you become the slave of the greater power; if the allied power is defeated, you remain alone and defenceless against the angry neighbour, and you are destroyed." - Niccolò Machiavelli



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,299 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    Could we import any of these builders?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,819 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    If only we had some empty hotel rooms to put them in... Too late



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Niccolò Machiavelli :

    "To ally with great powers to defeat your neighbour is a strategic trap; if you win, you become the slave of the greater power; if the allied power is defeated, you remain alone and defenceless against the angry neighbour, and you are destroyed." - Niccolò Machiavelli



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,529 ✭✭✭herbalplants


    Uisce Éireann announces 700 new jobs

    This means we will get the water charges back in no?

    Remember the shills only get paid when you react to them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,777 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    the treat of charges will always be there until it happens, this may not cause this just yet....



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Exports dropping as well as importing less. Those big boomerangs are starting to return to sender.


    Niccolò Machiavelli :

    "To ally with great powers to defeat your neighbour is a strategic trap; if you win, you become the slave of the greater power; if the allied power is defeated, you remain alone and defenceless against the angry neighbour, and you are destroyed." - Niccolò Machiavelli



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