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"average Dublin house prices should fall to ‘the €300,000 mark" according to Many Lou McD.

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,447 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    You are implying that public policy can't, or shouldn't, attempt to reduce the price of houses?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,111 ✭✭✭✭blanch152




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,111 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Not in Blanchardstown.

    Just one road, going back to 2014, the prices for the average 3 bed semi were all above €350k.

    I can look up more, but those prices are from your imaginations. Mid-1990s semi-ds.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 361 ✭✭Cheddar Bob


    That is one street, within spitting distance of Clonsilla train station.


    The vast, vast majority of Hartstown Huntstown Mulhuddart and the privately built parts of Corduff were around the 220 to 260 mark until 2021.


    They are now typically somewhere between 310 and 390. Homes in the likes of Fortlawn are now commanding above the 300 mark.


    By any measure that is outrageously unaffordable.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 361 ✭✭Cheddar Bob


    Residential Property Price Register

    Hartstown, plenty available in the mid 200s up until the end of 2020.


    Residential Property Price Register

    Huntstown, same again


    Residential Property Price Register

    Warrenstown, same again.


    Vast majority of these are 3 bed semis, and few of them were going for north of 280k.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 927 ✭✭✭moycullen14


    More than implying, I'm definitely saying it. Public policy should be directed at specific housing goals , not 'price'. Get the strategy (and implementation) right and the price becomes irrelevant. Price is an effect of public policy, not the goal which should be the provision of available, affordable property.

    Affordable is not the same as low price.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,111 ✭✭✭✭blanch152




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,447 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    Fair enough.

    But surely the word affordable implies lower prices than now?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,349 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    The market is what it is.

    Prices in Donnybrook werent 260k for a 3 bed 3 years ago.

    No idea about Tallaght/West Dublin, on the fringe of the city.

    Prices are simply the amount that people are willing to pay. We cant legislate for that.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 333 ✭✭Hawkeye123


    Perhaps small modular housing units or maybe tents in a designated campsite could be set aside for mortgage defaulters and that would free up the bank's houses for sale. Obviously there would be no housing crisis if post 2008 governments had not borrowed and used 200 billion euro to rig the market. Back in 2009 house prices were falling and the government should have allowed them run their course instead of inserting a false floor beneath house prices and then adding inflation to the housing market via various manipulations, all of which necessitated the abuse of power. The inflation that has been inserted into housing needs to be extracted again and the way to do that is by taxing housing. People who are buying now need to understand they are buying properties that have been deliberately inflated so if the same properties deflate to their unmanipulated level or even below, they will only have themselves to blame.

    So what will cause such a correction? I believe it will be a strong downturn in the economy that the government will be unable to counter.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,520 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    The main factor was rents were cheap and nobody minded renting. There was a thinking then you would buy your forever home in a few years. When prices started to go up did rents. Many people willing to live in these houses now would turn there nose up at them back then

    It's was no worse than now but rents were cheap so there was limited focus. Three of my nieces bought houses by themselves back then. They just went through the process and went to different lenders until they got sorted. My son was doing exactly the same finally got approved last week

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 361 ✭✭Cheddar Bob


    I'm not moving any goalposts.


    A couple who had a very modest budget of 220 to 260kl would be utterly spoiled for choice for 3 bed semis in the Hartstown, Huntstown Blakestowm, Mulhuddart Corduff areas prior to 2021, primarily in the area of 1970s/ 80s builds (as with the 80s recession there seems to have been relatively little built until the mid 90s hot so there's a gap there).


    The sale prices are freely available on Property Price Register. Anybody paying north of these mid 2000s prices had, for whatever reason, a very notion-ish requirement for their home.


    Today a couple on that budget might just about get a house in some of the less salubrious estates in the area, but in many cases they would be easily outbid.


    You simply can't argue that prior to 2021 housing in Blanchardstown was highly affordable for even those on quite modest joint incomes of just 60k.


    Yet back in 2018, 2019 Matt Cooper would have middle class people on moaning about being forced out to Naas and Navan to buy.


    They weren't being forced anywhere. They were just people who thought that their educational attainments meant that they were above living in a very wide area made infamous by a household name crime gang 15- 20 years previously.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 29,953 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    All that would mean is that the demand has shrunk.

    Or supply had increased. Which is the only actual way out of this mess.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,111 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Very few wish to live in those areas, hence the low prices.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    You are aware these are the areas in Blanchardstown that people don't want to live in.

    Hartstown, Huntstown Blakestowm, Mulhuddart, Corduff 

    The year round ice cream van going around these areas is funny? why would you want ice cream on the 24th of December

    Corduff is one of the worst places in Dublin/Ireland to live in these days, the lads shot in the restaurant at Christmas are from this area.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 361 ✭✭Cheddar Bob


    Are you Jim Cusack, formerly of the Irish Times, per chance?


    In regards to drugs, are you aware of the invention of the mobile phone and the E Scooter, or that the Irish ice cream van drug operation is by and large an urban legend that emanates from real life examples in 1980's Glasgow?


    What comes out of the van? E's that are laced with rat poison, and the ice cream has heroin mixed into it to get the kids addicted?


    This is Brass Eye stuff. I've honestly never read such fantasy garbage in my life. You're literally reading red top headlines about a Corduff of 1995. A time of teenage heroin abuse, a 50 odd percent youth population, and cars you could steal with a screwdriver.


    Can you compute how long ago that was? And what relevance it has to an area of less than half that youth population, cars that are almost un- stealable bar imports, and where too many teenagers today barely drink let alone use heroin?


    Corduff is not one of the worst places in Ireland. It isn't even one of the worst places in Dublin.


    There's probably about 10% of the genuinely bad estates in Dublin that existed in the 90s. Honest to Christ, the sheltered lives some live.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 361 ✭✭Cheddar Bob


    Now you're doing what you accused me of. Moving the goalposts.

    You said I had my head stuck in the 90s when I said you could buy homes in large swathes of perfectly respectable areas of Blanch for as low as 220 to 250 prior to 2021.

    Now you're inferring all of those areas are riddled with anti social behavior.

    Why would very few people wish to live in those areas?

    Do you regard the wider Blakestown/ Mulhuddart area as dangerous?


    Outside of Roselawn the more expensive end Blanch would be Littlepace/ Ongar area. You can see with the naked eye that there are plenty of people put there by the social, yet it's a tad more exepensive than the older parts like Hartstown, part fashion, part they'd all have en suites in the main bedroom.


    Those areas are no more, or less, safe than the area you claim nobody would feel safe living in. It's a moot point anyway, Ireland today is an incredibly safe and low compared to 20- 30 years ago by most metrics and is one of the safest and most low crime in the Western world for a myriad of reasons.


    You don't realise that, because that sort of statistic doesn't sell papers.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,111 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    But that isn't what you said. This is what you said:

    "In most of West Dublin from Tallaght to Blanch it was the standard price prior to the end of 2020, 220 to 260k for your average 3 bed semi."

    That simply isn't true. There are pockets of estates in the worst areas in which that was possible, with significant social issues, but the standard price at that time for decent ordinary 3-bed semis in West Dublin was around 80-100k more than that at the time. Now Castleknock and the better parts of Lucan were more than that, as were some other fancier areas, but you are not quoting the standard.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 361 ✭✭Cheddar Bob


    I am quoting the standard when I said that most, or if you want to be obtuse, plenty of 3 bed semis in West Dublin could be got for 220 to 260.


    Now, this wouldn't be the case in a traditionally posh area like CKnock or Roselawn, and I never argued it was. I said that if a couple on a joint income of as low as 60k went out shopping for a house in a perfectly respectable part of Blanch in 2019, or 18, or wherever, they would find one on the 3.5 lending limit. Ergo, houses were, up to that time, reasonably affordable. With a decent deposit you were talking of monthly repayments below a grand.


    Today the lowest priced homes in those same areas are typically 100k more. You might be talking a 1500 mortgage per month now. That is absolutely insane and bodes terribly for our birth rate which we need for the next generation of taxpayers.


    You brought up a strip of newer homes near Clonsilla train station as proof that there has been nowhere decent in D15 where homes were available for 220 to 250 for over a decade.


    Again, you implied that most of Blakestown/ Hartstown/ Huntstown, Edgewood/ Brookwood/ Ashling Heights was an undesireable area.


    I'd be hugely interested to know what makes it undesirable. Jesus, I was driving on the old Navan Rd near Maxol the other night and I saw a group of teenagers walking in the dark and thought WTF are they up to- namely because it's almost unheard of to see young lads out at that hour any more up to anything, good bad or indifferent.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    I lived in the area, the entire post is a pile of nonsense.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 361 ✭✭Cheddar Bob


    You think that Corduff is the worst part of Dublin and that an ice cream van drives around selling heroin every evening all winter.

    You did in my hoop live around there.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,579 ✭✭✭thereiver


    The cost of materials is going up the population is increasing most people prefer to buy a house rather than an apartment there's no way house prices will fall the cost to build a house will not decrease builders have to make a profit



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,111 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Again, the goalposts are shifting. Firstly, your claim was that it was the standard in all of West Dublin, I have shown that it wasn't. Secondly, you have now increased the amount of money from 250k to 270k. Thirdly, you have restricted the area to the most deprived areas of Blanchardstown, where the buyers were either the council or those who grew up in the area. Nobody from the rest of West Dublin bought in Corduff during that period.

    Those are the fact, and I am exiting the debate as you are now resorting to insults about political opinions.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 361 ✭✭Cheddar Bob


    I haven't restricted any area. I haven't shifted any goal posts. Broadly speaking, 70s and 80s built semis in Clondalkin Tallaght and Blanch would go for roundabouts the same price, which prior to an ill advised lockdown was 220 to 270k.


    There will be exceptions, higher, lower, proximity to a Luas or train, etc etc.


    But as a general rule a young couple looking for a 3 bed semi in Blanchardstown or anywhere else in West Dublin prior to 2021 could easily find one, in an area that doesn't have any sort of reputation deserved or otherwise, for between 220 and 270k. You can find proof of this on Property Price Register.

    These same homes would typically go for somewhere between 315 and 380k today.

    Note I say semi- there are relatively few semi detatched ex council houses in D15 bar Sheephill in Corduff which has a few streets of them. Virtually all the rest are terraces.

    I don't know if you are sore that you weren't aware of this and overpaid for a house at some stage, but that is the fact of the matter. You can't retcon history that is free to peruse on PPP.


    I'm also curious as to how you are an authority on exactly who was buying houses anywhere and where they grew up.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 313 ✭✭BillyHaelyRaeCyrus


    This is total madness. A house in Mulhuddart, Corduff, old estates in Clondalkin, etc would always have been for the unemployed or those in very very low employment. They are rough areas. I was born in the 90s and I grew up with the impression that they are areas full of addicts and gangland crime. And now you think its ok that someone whos single would need to earn 75k to buy one?

    Someone on 75k should be looking at areas like Tempelouge, Knocklyon, Castleknock, Stillorgan to live in not a 1970s council estate with active gangland crime. Jesus christ was has gone so wrong in Dublin. I grew up in the 00s in an area going for 500k now and we had people working in checkouts, bar men, truck drivers and mechanics living on the street with us.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 361 ✭✭Cheddar Bob


    I think you would be surprised by how little goes on these days in formerly bad areas. The 90s were a long time ago. Those young addicts are now in their 40s and 50s and are in a truly decrepit state in many cases (the ones still alive that is)


    Didn't you say you spend 250 a weekend socialising earlier? That is excessive for someone in their 30s TBH.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 313 ✭✭BillyHaelyRaeCyrus


    Im just trying to figure it out here. How the normal areas from my childhood are now reserved for the top 10% of earners and the areas that I would regard as being the bottom 10% like Mulhuddart, Neilstown, Corduff etc are now requiring highly middle class salaries. I would not live in those areas due to their reputation.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,473 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    A total of income of 75K should not be expecting to buy those areas, perhaps very small sections of the less desirable parts, but not the general areas.

    The median annual salary for men in Ireland currently sits at €45,537 and €37,782 for women.

    So two median earners are already nearly 10K more than your budget.

    Those areas are not the median areas of Dublin.

    Cut your cloth and all that.



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