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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,909 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Mortgage broker wants more state aid to increase customers at business apparently 100k is not enough



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,457 ✭✭✭SharkMX


    A friend who is an electrician was looking for quotes to get an extension done last year.

    Its just a 40sq m rectangle on the back of the house he wants. He was getting quotes of well over 120k and he already had PP. He had to get PP because the house was previously extended.

    He decided to youtube and do it himself and get anything he couldnt handle himself done by others. He is half way through now and thinks it will cost him less than €40k by the time he is finished.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,121 ✭✭✭RichardAnd




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,634 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    There has to be something wrong here.

    I can buy a 140sqm semi D in the country for 350k. The same house would cost 700k in Dublin.

    That difference cannot account for wages, material and land.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,634 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    That's fantastic, well done him. I was looking at doing an ICF extension because I don't want that hassle of laying blocks.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,557 ✭✭✭✭o1s1n
    Master of the Universe


    Fair play to him, that's quite a DIY project to undertake! I'm not sure if I'd be happy having myself/family sitting in an extension I built myself 😅

    Just goes to show you how much of the cost goes to labour/expertise.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,697 ✭✭✭hometruths


    It insane that Darragh O'Brien is congratulating himself for this.

    Consider 1 house in a new build estate selling on the open market for €450k.

    Most likely buyer for that house is either:

    a) FTB with a €100k subsidy from government.

    b) An investor seeking to rent it - either to private market which is approx 25% subsidised by government, or cut out middlemen and rent directly to government

    c) The government in some form or other - either via subsidising AHBs or local council direct purchase.

    It doesn't take a genius to spot the elephant in the room here.

    The sooner a critical mass of homebuyers, renters and taxpayers realise we're all being fleeced the better.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,697 ✭✭✭hometruths


    It's amazing how quickly developers went from pariahs who bankrupted the country with their price gouging to noble entrepreneurs struggling to make a honest buck



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,121 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    Of course he's happy. He's fueling inflation in house prices, which is precisely what he and his cohort have been doing for nearly a decade.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,592 ✭✭✭DataDude


    Fair play to him, but this hardly necessarily proves anything in terms of pricing?

    If you don’t have to pay:

    Public liability insurance, wages, employers taxes, personal taxes, transportation for workers, insurance for said transportation etc etc. it will naturally be a fair bit cheaper to do something.

    If you use a piece of string and a door to take out a tooth it’ll probably be cheaper than the dentist too. Doesn’t mean he’s gouging you.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,592 ✭✭✭DataDude


    Whatever about ‘developers’. But I do think a lot of problems we have today in terms of a lack of labour is due to the lack of respect we as a society give to people in the construction industry.

    People (not saying you!) talking down on builders, electricians, plumbers etc and accusing them of ‘gouging’.

    They are much much more valuable to a functioning society than the fabled nurses we all love to put out as the gold standard for admirable jobs. All without much job security, pensions and in generally tough working environments.

    I think if we as a society placed the same level of respect on all people who are linked to building (this includes financing, cause that matters too) of infrastructure, perhaps we might not be in such a mess.



  • Posts: 14,769 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    That isn’t the amazing thing about your post though.

    Developers didn’t bankrupt the country, easy credit, lax regulation, over supply, world economic events, and yes, the public’s seemingly insatiable appetite to own properties at the time all played a part.

    You can talk about the government should do this, they should do that, they should tax unused land etc etc, but in the end, anyone with even a modicum of understanding of how housing supply works, understands that to meet the huge number of properties needed, private develops have to build houses, something they will not do unless they profit from building them.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,697 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Granted I'm being a bit facetious, but I'm not really talking down developers, more I'm talking down those pushing the narrative that there is little room for house prices to fall because the developers will get spooked and stop building. There is plenty of that around - from our politicians, media and from posters on here.

    As far developers go, irrespective of whether it's the banks (07 etc) handing out money like confetti or the government (now), it's not their fault, and I wouldn't expect them to do anything other than cash in and make hay when the sun shines.

    The figures most often cited to justify the narrative that current market values are essentially developers are building at cost with a small but fair profit margin built in are simply lobbying efforts produced by the construction industry.

    They don't stand up to scrutiny, and it's not the developers fault that nobody is scrutinising them.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,697 ✭✭✭hometruths


    You can talk about the government should do this, they should do that, they should tax unused land etc etc, but in the end, anyone with even a modicum of understanding of how housing supply works, understands that to meet the huge number of properties needed, private develops have to build houses, something they will not do unless they profit from building them.

    I understand this perfectly well. I am not suggesting that developers should be building houses at a loss. I am disputing the idea that they are currently operating on such thin profit margins that if prices fell, none of them would be able to turn a profit.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,327 ✭✭✭Blut2


    They should absolutely be respected more, and pushed more by guidance councillors. But the even faster way to change things is financially.

    The wage for a first year apprentice in 2024 is 286euro a week, for a second year 430euro a week. Significantly less than a generic minimum wage job that requires far less effort, nevermind any sort of even entry level clerical job.

    Its no wonder its hard to get young people into the trades when they start off paying so poorly. They should be a decent margin above minimum wage (which is 508e p/w now) at the very least from year one.



  • Posts: 359 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Anyone any suggestions regarding rates for first time buyer? Currently being offered 5% for 3 years or 5.1% for 5 years if we fix. Seeing lots of info going online about rates coming down but obviously nobody knows for certain. These are both offering 2% cash back with the 5 year another 1%.

    we can certainly afford to fix for 5 years but would we be better off doing 3 and seeing if they come down?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 533 ✭✭✭MentalMario


    Go to Bonkers.ie and put in your details. 5% seems very high. Most lenders are doing under 4% fixed rates for 4 or 5 years.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,432 ✭✭✭combat14


    no way RPZ will be removed at present government would be out on their ear



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,121 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    In my opinion, rates are going to come down in the next few months, but likely they will not reach the extremely low levels of the pre-lockdown era.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,337 ✭✭✭The Student


    Any politician/political party who can solve housing would win a landslide victory in the next election. It looks like it is not as easy as some would believe.

    Land & labour costs are higher in Urban areas. These input costs are less in the country and as such lead into the cost of a property. Development levies and all the various charges add to the costs. Subsidising infrastructure by Dublin to the country also plays a part in the costs be they connections to water, ESB etc.

    If there is no/not enough profit than a rational business person does not invest. You can't have it both ways if you want private sector efficiency you get it when its economical to do so. If you want State inefficiency you have to pay for it.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,337 ✭✭✭The Student


    Who pays for these increased wages? This is the general problem we have in Ireland we end up pricing ourselves out of everything. Increase wages to help people survive so increase prices and the wage price spiral continues.

    Then as prices and wages rise welfare rates have to rise and taxes are then needed to fund these rises and then wage demands increase and we go around in the same circle.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,634 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    There's no way that extra cost for land, labour and various charges add 350,000 to the price of a semi detached house.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,633 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Especially seeing as most of the labour building in Dublin is imported from the regions, and NI, where cost of living is much lower.

    A slight premium in labour, but not near 350k worth on a house.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,697 ✭✭✭hometruths


    It's truly astonishing how many people appear to genuinely believe it nonetheless.

    The reason house prices cost more in 350k more in Dublin is simply down to greater demand for the location, hence the market price is higher.

    That's totally understandable. Why so many people attempt to claim the difference is down to other factors is far less understandable!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,337 ✭✭✭The Student


    If you look at this from a business perspective leave emotions out of the analysis. A developer runs the risk of holding land and does not develop it, so interest rates increase, or we have a downturn in the economy and money and confidence drops. So a developer has an asset that is not earning him any money at all.

    Logic would suggest that a developer build and to do that he has to charge the price he has to charge to get a return. I know on a personal level trying to get a trades person is very difficult to even do simple job simply because we don't have enough of them. So if you want to build you have to pay to get the trades people and to get them they will charge what they can basic economics (if demand is greater than supply supernormal profits are earned).

    These costs have to be recouped hence they are included in the cost of the property. The banks wont lend the way they did as they don't want to take a risk.

    We all agree to bring down prices you need supply of everything, labour, materials etc however labour has to be paid, material prices have increased significantly and there is not a huge amount we can do about this as we import alot of them. Lack of building of social housing and our generous welfare system when it comes to housing (and other elements eg reduction in welfare payments for Ukranians as the Govt acknowledge our welfare system is attracting asylum seekers and refugees).



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,697 ✭✭✭hometruths


    So if you want to build you have to pay to get the trades people and to get them they will charge what they can basic economics (if demand is greater than supply supernormal profits are earned).

    So if the supply of tradesmen are currently making supernormal profits because demand for labour is currently greater than supply then surely it follows that the developers are currently making supernormal profits because demand for houses is currently greater supply?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,634 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    I agree with everything you have said, but it does not explain your comment that there is "not huge money to be made" when houses in Dublin are twice the cost of similar houses in rural areas.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,634 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    I don't think there is a huge shortage of trades in construction. It was true maybe a few years ago, but there is definitely more.


    Anecdotally there are a lot more ads posted by plumbers, tilers, roofers and flooring lads on done deal in recent months.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,697 ✭✭✭hometruths


    TBH I wasn't really making a point re the number of tradesmen available, I was just curious as to why @The Student appears to believe the tradesmen are making supernormal profits but the developers are not.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,337 ✭✭✭The Student


    Not necessarily supernormal profits attract new suppliers to the market and reduce supernormal profits to normal profits. Developers can't develop if they don't have the trades people to do the work.



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