Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

SF in their defense have promised to massively increase house building, which is a key issue for most young people. They'll also increase spending on things like teachers, gardai and nurses - which is also a priority for a lot of people, both young and old.

Their anti-property tax policy is totally bonkers/populist nonsense though yeah, they're the only in theory "left wing" party in Europe thats against the idea as far as I'm aware.

The main reason they're doing so well is people look at the current mess in housing, in education, healthcare, in policing, and blame it (quite reasonably) on FG for having been in government from 2011 to 2024. We're living in a time of massive government surplus to the tune of billions a year, but declining quality of life in many key areas. Its incredibly hard to justify voting for the status quo because of that. SF are the beneficiaries as a result of being the only main party in the Dail not already in government.

SF will almost certainly turn out to be very similar to FF of 30-50 years ago when in office - just slightly economically left of center populists. They're unlikely to actually make much of a difference or rock the boat too much, despite the hopes of left-wing voters and fears of right-wing ones. But they may make things slightly better in their key areas of focus at least.

And governmental change does a democracy good in general. No party should be in goverment for 15+ years straight - competence decreases and corruption increases over extended periods of time in power.

5 bedrooms

Any chance the government would actually stop giving us all Energy credits and start paying a better wage to apprenticeships in the trade nah?

We are still paying aspiring builders, carpenters, plumbers & electricians €100 a week - in a housing crisis.

Thats not accurate. We have essentially the same number of builders now in 2024 as which we had in 2004, when we built 70,000 housing units.

The difference is in what exactly the builders are building - more non-housing work now, than then.

You couldn't stop an already commenced non-housing project, no. But the housing crisis has been going on for 5+ years at this stage now, far longer than the duration of most commercial building works.

A more interventionist government could have introduced measures to reduce commencements of office/hotel/other commercial building to prioritise house building. Increased targeted taxes/levies, denied planning permissions etc, there are ways.

Given the rapidly increasing vacancy rate in the office sector (from 5% in 2019 to 15% in Dec23 and still rising), and potential impending crash, this would actually presumably have been good for that sector too, not even just the housing market itself.

Hmm not all non-housing projects CAN be stopped, but yes there probably is less of a need to be building office blocks these days. Probably 45-50k units a year is a reasonable target. However, as I've mentioned above, it's not just a case of building more. Without policy change elsewhere, it's just a case of finding bigger buckets to hold and never ending leak.

Problem is also cost. You cannot build houses costing 300k anymore. And from what I've read the developers are not making large profits, not even 30% on a house. Even if houses are built, prices will still be very high - higher than old builds so many people will still fight on what they can afford - overbidding on old houses.

Apartments should be cheaper to build with less land and common components but somehow most seem to be in expensive areas (and more expensive than existing ones) or just built for rent.

"Not even 30% on a house". God help them! On what planet is 30% profit not considered good!?

There's a small developer selling new build 3 bed dormers *on a fecking island* (so significantly transit costs and no local labour supply) in Donegal for 195k. I doubt they're making 30% or even close to it though.

Let’s not forget that in a lot of cases the developer is buying the site from an investment company that he owns or controls and any profit on reselling the land is not included in the profit figures for the development as is shown as site costs so very easy to massage profit margins to show what you like.

All irrelevant if you can't satisfy the 2nd rung of Maslovs hierarchy of needs. Accumulating wealth and worrying about your pension is far from the mind of the person that can't put a roof over their head or wondering where the money is going to come from to meet ever increasing rents.

Older people need to understand that their wealth is heavily based on the next generation being able to afford there assets when the need arises. Constant subsidies means all generations are taxed more to keep the mirage going

If you have most of nearly 2 generations locked out of housing, ecpect change whether we like it or not

I expect change. A material reduction in housing output as the private market totally loses confidence and a predictably inefficient public sector fails to pick up the slack. An associated increase in prices and rents follow.

An increase in taxes on younger people and a reduction in taxes on older people as wealth taxes are phased out. Property becomes an even more attractive store of wealth as it’s declared ‘not an asset’ and therefore exempt from taxation.

Young people will be scratching their heads wondering why voting for ‘change’ meant there were now fewer houses to buy, their rent went up and their net pay went down. Change can be change for the worse.

Time will tell!

Mad, because I wasn't aware they'd fallen!

I'd say that SF will be in power next time around. By 2030, the Irish electorate may finally understand that voting in globalist / neo-liberal lunatics and compradores is not going to change anything, even with a sprinkling of socialism and fake nationalism.

Back to the days of the local employer providing lodgings

We've come full circle