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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,355 ✭✭✭Field east


    You forgot to mention that when Putin conscripts another 500000 into the army, - after the election, - there will be 500,000 vacancies created. These is my life people are not twiddling their thumbs and sitting on a wal looking for something to ‘excite’ them. They are more than likely drivers , service engineers, etc. the low hanging fruit has already been conscripted. So we can expect ‘ a bit more’ resistance when the next round starts



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,355 ✭✭✭Field east




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,066 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    A good 5 days of shelling by Ukraine in 2026.

    That's what that will buy, about 200k shells.

    It's a good step but if there isn't the same press release every week for the next year, it is immaterial.


    It feels like that Western armies became so reliant on technology and airpower that they overlooked the need to plan for wars of attrition, of duration and of annihilation. It was short term shock and awe, the balance was lost. Europe is looking at Trump in 2025 saying, no you pay your own bar tab from now on and it mostly isn't ready or willing to do that, just imagine the political reaction to govts saying we have to spend several percent a year on our armies, reintroduce conscription, and all it entails being able to be a society that pulls its own weight.


    If this isn't settled this year, it will just become stagnant lines with occasional hot spots back and forth.


    Ukraine needs a game changer for that to be avoided and where will that come from? Germany has certainly changed its tune and really stepped up, though it was disappointing to see Taurus missiles not been given, they are what they need, still they have changed and that counts.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,355 ✭✭✭Field east


    No problem with that as long as it retains the right to have them if it wants. IMO When all this is ‘settled’ Russia should have ABSOLUTLY NO part in any decision that UKr makes to manage its state



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,039 ✭✭✭scottser


    Ukraine should recover faster than Russia, in theory at least. Russia is a corrupt shithole; at least Ukraine is addressing its corruption and improving oversight. It has access to Western funding and support and a clear recovery plan, whereas Russia is in thrall to China and is already scabbing ammunition from North Korea.

    Having said all that, now would be a great time to equip Ukraine properly and end Putin's insanity.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    They used to have part of Soviet nuclear arsenal not their own and they never had actual control over them



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,201 ✭✭✭CelticRambler



    Israel fired 100k shells in the first 7 weeks in a small strip of land 15 miles long and that was it being secondary to air strikes, because the reality of urban warfare calls for that.

    Hardly a great example - is it? How safe and secure is Israel today, compared to how it was three months ago? Are we looking at a future of peace and tranquility for all the residents of the far eastern shores of the Mediterranean now, thanks to those 100k shells?

    Precision strikes by Ukraine are all well and good but they also need to level areas. The Russians were firing 60k a day at one stage.

    Still with the "might is right (and better)" Why does Ukraine need to level areas? Can you point to one single advantage such a tactic has brought to the Russian army in the last two years? Sure, they completely destroy towns like Marinka and Bakmut and can proclaim they've conquered another few square kilometres ... and yet that doesn't stop Ukraine driving their Black Sea Fleet out of the Black Sea, or their A50s out of the Azov Sea.

    As I've asserted before: just like in the Somme in WW1, the fighting in the trenches isn't moving more than a few metres east or west from one week to the next, but the effective frontline has moved a hell of a lot further east since the infamous "failed" counteroffensive of last year, and that's without levelling whole cities or killing thousands of civilians.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,066 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    The article I saw said end of 2025, early 2026.


    It doesn't really matter though when it is such a small number. If it was 5 million for a summer offensive this year or ideally last year. It would be serious and important to the effort.


    That's out of reach though.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    1000 patriot missles won't start to delivered to NATO countries until 2027- 2030 at least



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,201 ✭✭✭CelticRambler


    Worth remembering, too, that there's already a plan in place for which EU country is responsible for what part of a post-war Ukraine. It's been a while since I saw it, but when you have 27 countries lined up with a clear map of who can repair/exploit what, the speed of recovery will have the citizens of Bryansk and Belgorod drooling into their empty soup bowls.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,066 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    The only way to take cities or towns is to flatten them, that's it unless you want to waste an entire army running them down a street where a sub rate soldier can drop several of them from a window..

    You don't fight door to door. You put a shell through the house and then go in, as the Iraqis did in Mosul.


    Ukraine held in to Bakhmut for so long because they were turning it in to a neat grinder for Russia.


    What do you see as the benefit of forcing Ukraine to fight attritional battles against a dug in enemy while being short of arms.


    Why would the Ukrainians or anyone else take the past route which has been consistently shown that urban fighting without massive suppressive fire is the quickest way to destroy your own army?


    The risk of your approach is that after a few months Ukraine will have nothing left manpower wise.


    Might is right?

    In war you either kill or injury so many enemy combatants that their army is forced to retreat or go home.


    You hit their infrastructure again and again so that their society can not be a fully functioning support to their army or be willing to endure the price.


    Effective lines far from the front. They have been the norm for decades and usually at a much greater scale than either Russia or Ukraine have done to date and neither have been game changers



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    I'm so sure about that,there is plans involving support and access to financial aid for the Ukrainians to rebuild themselves I haven't seen a plan where Ukraine gets divided into separate sections where 27 EU states step in to rebuild, but it there is any kind of down turn or recession in Europe those plan's could change again as well as political wills



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,860 ✭✭✭✭Timberrrrrrrr


    That's not to say they won't have their own in the future.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,066 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    No but it is theoretical, in 30 years time they might have one.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Still don't see under any circumstances they get nukes ,I definitely do see any will from the international community to assist them either



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,552 ✭✭✭✭Sleepy



    I saw some reports on Twitter that Zenit (a heavily fortified Air Defense position to the south west of Avdiivka) had been taken by the Russian army which, if true, would be a major problem for the Ukrainians as it's a heavily fortitified position and has the high elevation over the area and is considered a lynchpin of this front but I'm also seeing counter-claims that while they've made advances in the area, the fortification is still in Ukrainian hands.

    Hard to tell the truth of it but based on everything we've seen to date from both sides, one would have to assume Ukrainian command will pull back their forces and abandon Avdiivka for more defensible positions when necessary.

    On saying that, it does make me wonder that Ukraine haven't yet pulled a mass retreat in some part of the front to suck Russian troops into an encirclement. From what we've seen the Russians logistics and command have been terrible and their troops are under intense pressure to take territory so it'd seem to me that they'd be ripe for being lured into a headlong rush for "abandoned" territory which Ukraine had artillery pre-targetted on (or otherwise booby trapped) as their logistics would surely fail to keep up with a fast advance at this point?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,758 ✭✭✭macraignil


    "In war you either kill or injury so many enemy combatants that their army is forced to retreat or go home."

    Seems like you are right that frontal assaults are not yielding much in the way of territorial gain in Ukraine but as you say yourself in the part of your post I have reprinted the enemy can be forced to retreat if enough of their combatants are killed and injured. Once again the number of moskovytes the armed forces of Ukraine are after killing is about the thousand mark along with large amounts of military equipment that can no longer be used by putin to attack Ukraine. The costs for putin in this conflict are only getting higher as Ukraine is finding more ways to strike further into putin's terrorist state and his army is being demolished so in time putin will be forced to retreat.

    dpk37v8fn4ec1.jpeg

    In more news from the war putin continues their terrorist attacks on civilians with 21 missiles reported to have been shot down over night but still many deaths and injuries to innocent people because of his empire building dream.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,415 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Little more details there with a delivery date.

    The link you supplied even mentions it's to replenish NATO stocks.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,860 ✭✭✭✭Timberrrrrrrr


    Well they're hardly keeping you in the loop with daily emails are they? It's not something that will be talked about now, it's a subject that will definitely be discussed in years to come though. Ukraine will pull the israeli reason for the need for nukes and I honestly don't see too much opposition coming their way (apart from Russia, Belarus and possibly Hungary).



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,013 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Yes, Ukraine is badly damaged, but so was Japan, Germany and all the other country's involved in the ww2. Look at what happened to these Countries after wards? Same thing will happen with Ukraine. Putin didn't want Ukraine simply to enlarge his empire, apparently there's incredible wealth both offshore and inland, and that's not including Agriculture. Sure Russia is large, but like the large farm in the area, with a bad Farmer managing it, it will go to rack and ruin. And that in a nutshell is what has happened in Russia under Putin. Once the oil and gas cash ws rolling in, that was all that mattered. Little or no investment outside of Moscow and St. Petersburg,except for vanityh projects like the crimea bridge, while the rest of Russia was falling apart. Look at the crazy situation even in Moscow now, with up to -30c temp, and the heating systems breaking down all over the place? Worse, most of the maintenance crews have been conscripted and by now a lot of them a dead or disabled.

    No, Putin could have made Russia one of the biggest economic powerhouses in the world, but the criminal side of him won out.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,201 ✭✭✭CelticRambler


    What do you see as the benefit of forcing Ukraine to fight attritional battles against a dug in enemy while being short of arms.

    Why would the Ukrainians or anyone else take the past route which has been consistently shown that urban fighting without massive suppressive fire is the quickest way to destroy your own army?

    The risk of your approach is that after a few months Ukraine will have nothing left manpower wise.

    You're the one suggesting the neanderthal (Russian) approach to battering each other with sticks and rocks until either there are no rocks left or no heads left to bash them against. I'm saying that Ukraine are going to win the attritional battle by not throwing their own people into the pointless destruction of their own land, and instead are being innovative in how they use what resources they have to do maximum strategic damage to Russia.

    There is absolutely no point in Ukraine sending 10000 Ukrainans to die in an attempt to re-take Bahkmut (for example) when they can destroy a whole battleship (and crew) or a best-they've-got AWACS aircraft (and crew) with a few well-targetted missiles. "Attrition" does not mean that one life lost here has the same value as one lost there; nor does one Bradley lost in Avdiivka equate to the shooting down of one IL-22 over the Azov Sea.

    It's significant (to me, at least) that Zelenskyy recently said of the on-going mobilisation debate that they need people to return to Ukraine to work, not to fight. That suggests to me that Ukraine already has an idea of how they're going to undermine Russia's aggression in the short to medium term, and have the country ready to leap forward when the Kremlin is finally forced to concede defeat.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    The problem is with some like a mass withdrawal to try suck the Russians in could massive backfire considering that only lately the Ukrainians have started to prepare multiple lines of defence they could seriously cause a break in there own lines , munitions running low it would be a huge gamble with very little to gain but plenty to loose



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,522 ✭✭✭keeponhurling


    The cynical side of me thinks that "the West" is happy enough to continue as is, as long as Russia is taking heavy losses (or being "degraded" in military terms). A war of attrition, with Ukraine also capable to eliminate some high-value targets with HIMARs, Storm Shadow missiles and the likes.

    The reason everyone jumped to support Ukraine was the fear that if Putin takes Ukraine, where would it stop. We could be next.

    If Russia now tried to annex, say, a Balkan state they would need a hell of a lot of men to do so. Which seems implausible as they are already running out of men in Ukraine, including top Generals. And a NATO country would not have to go begging for sufficient ammunition like Ukraine has to. Not to mention the decreasing popularity of the war within Russia, and the grinding effect of sanctions and just the sheer death toll. The alleged 350,000 dead Russians all have families back home.

    Basically, job done.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,013 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Yes, that was the peacetime attitude, but that has all been changed by Putin and his invasion of a Country right on the borders of the EU. I can see a renewal of calls for a full-scale EU army now, and it will get a lot of support this time round.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Absolutely I said that early on this thread it will have to be the way forward, the EU can't rely on the US anymore we need an EU army but the usual suspects will bog any plans down trying to decide who gets command of any EU army and where the HQ would be built looking at the french and Germans here and we will still have the issue of countries not Willing to meet an financial spending as we have seen with NATO heading to year three of this war and still countries meeting the NATO spending requirements,but yet still have a say and expect to defended, it we are going forward with an EU army everyone has to commit to increased defence spending and assisting those like us who have seen our defence completely abandoned in the hope everyone else will fight and defend us in a future conflict



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,796 ✭✭✭threeball


    The problem is, if Ukraine falls the geopolitical ramifications will be huge. The likelihood of Europe getting drawn in to a full blown war is huge, The US won't really care as there is no threat to them and the EU is becoming an economic rival so having that pushed back 20yrs won't bother them too much. They'll support us much like they are doing Ukraine.

    Russia will be emboldened and try to expand, every man and their dog will become a Russian Nationalist, happy to expand the motherland after their glorious victory. Taiwan will be come an appetizer for China while they eye up Korea, Japan and the rest of South East Asia.

    If the EU and US don't put the shoulder to the wheel in the next 6months and truly give Ukraine what's needed to finish the invasion off then we're heading down the slippery slope of WW3.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,572 ✭✭✭XsApollo


    What could Ukraine do for Europe that the nuclear armed UK and France couldn’t do.

    ukraine won’t be getting help from the Us to get nukes and definitely won’t be getting help from Europe either.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,860 ✭✭✭✭Timberrrrrrrr


    India or Pakistan might sell them the tech though.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Friends of Russia can't see that happening either,I could see alot of EU states suddenly saying we're not interested in funding Ukraine if they are going to try acquire nukes



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