"average Dublin house prices should fall to ‘the €300,000 mark" according to Many Lou McD.

Why would it reduce the demand for overall housing? Bringing airbnb rentals etc to the rental market? Adapting unused officed space for student accommodation?

Those are increasing supply of rental property, thereby reducing demand for homeownership.

No what I am pointing out that housing is complex and people's views cannot be boiled down to 2 basic and vague questions. I don't doubt the poll but what I am pointing out 2 things the poll doesn't indicate the drop people are prepared to accept. For house prices to drop to 300k in Dublin you are talking about a 30% drop in house prices. That's massive especially in the context that our housing crisis is demand led. So to get a 30% drop you are talking about an economic disaster that will result in large numbers of unemployed people.

Two 37% of voters is huge. It's a large enough number of people to cause huge problems already. One of the reasons we have a housing crisis is due to NIMBYs. And remember the more prices decline the more opposition you are going to face. On top of that any major decline will probably be caused by major economic problems which would accompany that decline. Brian Cowen will tell you all about how popular a major decline in house prices makes you.

The poll isn't some sort of gotcha as we know from relatively recent general elections about how the public will respond to a major decrease in house prices and the problems associated.

Just to add the above is only one part of the housing crisis. So maybe instead of insulting people you actually take time to look at the detail of problem.

It's called a substitute good.

Substitute goods are supply side measures, don't reduce demand.

The fun thing about statistics is that depends on the time frame, you have correctly shown that prices increased over a period of time, no arguments there, but if you take 2006 to 2009 it is a different story, or 2006 to 2018.

Prices have fallen dramatically before and there is no guarantee that they will not do so again, in fact it is more than likely.

A landlord is not in the business of financing a tenant through a non secured finance agreement at a lower rate than a financial institution would offer and the financial institution has the luxury of having security in the deeds of the property.

Why, please, tell me why a landlord would do so?

Think logically, why would I for example finance a house for you to live in for the next 30 years, running a loss year on year and being on the hook for all repairs, maintenance, decorating, white goods in the hope that at the end of the 30 years that residual equity would see me turn a profit?

Supposing it does turn a profit, fabulous, lets say the market remains on an upwards trajectory, I buy a € 350k house today, Mortgage € 270k with a €80k deposit is costing me € 1,400 per month on a 30 year Mortgage, I rent it to you at € 1,200 per month and hand half of that over to Revenue, so I get € 600 per month for my troubles.

Over 30 years I would have spent € 504,000.00 in mortgage repayments, you will have paid me € 432,000.00 in Rent, of which I get to bank € 216k

So ignoring any maintenance costs, white goods etc over the 30 years your net rent of € 216k leaves me out € 288k in mortgage payments.

Its starting to look less fantastic now isnt it?

So what value do you put on our house now in 2054? Double it? € 700k

So I'm quids in? Hmmm, €700k €350k is subject to CGT because it is not my PPR, so bye bye € 115,500.00 down to € 584,500.00

Getting there cost me € 504k in Mortgage payments down to € 80,500, add your rent back after tax + €216k and we are left with € 296,500.00 oop don't forget there was a €80k deposit, so after 30 years I am up € 216,500 and laughing yes?

Yipeeeee.

However if Invested the 80k deposit and the € 1,400 per month I would have in 2054 € 692,243.68 in the bank according to a BOI savings calculator.

So funnily enough, not funding your house would leave me better off, imagine that.

Isn't your substitute good just a property as well? i.e. not a substitute.

Are you sure people would be reluctant to sell?

I'd say only if they thought prices were going to return to the peak value at which they bought them in the near future.

And I'm not sure if it's just because you haven't laid it out very well, but I think your point about starter home supply is also quite speculative.

I don't necessarily have an issue personally with house prices dropping 30% even, but I bought a property over 10 years ago and it wouldn't be my main source of wealth, I have other investments. For others though it would be maybe the only asset they own. I think given the generally selfish mentality in Ireland, the "can't someone else pay for it?" type mentality, I would be very surprised if people would be OK with properties dropping by so much. You just need to look at the water charges protests or say the opinion polls when it comes to a UI, the opinion changes when it comes to actually paying.