FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

ECM is looking very good. Get back on board Gonzo!

ECM superb up to 144 and then the high tracks a little further east. A.slight correction on this and it aligns much closer to the UKMO and GEM. Perhaps a Monday 00z correction will see to that. Much better run so far than the 00z.

Yes a huge improvement on the morning run, as you say let's just hope it's delaying the real cold air arriving. GEM still the pick of the bunch. Gonzo might be back on board if the GFS tonight sides with the GEM.

It's not a big improvement if next week one is still looking at day 9 which I suspect we will be

Well it’s day 7/8 on the latest ECM so… hopefully models converge on this proper cold solution now as we get closer. We are not looking at just day 10 fantasy anymore, and the differences between the models are appearing at just day 4-6. Still FI - but gaining momentum.

How accurate is this model compared to the big three?

Is it not true that the GEM always has a bias towards colder weather so you can only take its predictions with a pinch of salt.

I know its MTCs favoured model. Gem was not interested in next weekends potential cold until yesterday's 0z. It was showing much milder solutions when other models were going for cold. Either way, I just don't know which model is best for what anymore which is why I look at them all and try and form some kind of a consensus. I have seen those model performance charts that evaluate the main models at short, medium and long range and there is no decipherable pattern to them. If forecasting was a perfect science or if there was a perfect model, we would all be on the hunt for a different hobby.

Holy moly. A 4 day blizzard for some. I know that's not what you are saying, but one can dream. I would love to experience a red warning for snow. I know there was one back in 2018 but I was out of the country then. What I wouldn't give to experience a 2 - 3 day blizzard.

Aye but the location of Ireland, always a bridesmaid never a bride has the form horse for the usefull cold to continue heading into Europe and onto either Athens again or I suspect this time not much further west than Paris or Cardiff

We'll see by this time next week of course where or how far out the cold is modeled

2018 was mad altogether will never see it again. The low just stalled off the east coast and dumped snow for a good 36 hours non stop. Was class. I remember MTC the day before saying it would be like 1947 with internet. Maybe not quite at that depth of cold but amazing none the less.