Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Housing seems to be by far the biggest reason but it also is a contributor to other reasons. Oft cited is things like friends moving over, lack of employment opportunities and lack of lifestyle all of which housing will play a major part in.

Housing isn't just the biggest reason, it's the reason for the other factors.

I can speak anecdotally for myself and my colleagues but when we graduated we all did intern year and a good number left and about 50% came back. The rest stayed out there, I've cousins did that and stayed.

The difference is now I'm more senior as are my colleagues and there are still people moving out and housing is a major factor in it. The reasons are pretty identical you have people like me who don't have houses and want to go because it's just hard to get something worth it and youve people who have houses and either can't trade up with a family or own properties one which the mortgage amount doesn't match the quality of life they expect. That adds into seeing our colleagues out there living a better lifestyle for more money and with more tax breaks.

At present we are seeing nurses living in Spain 3 weeks and doing a 1 week of work in the national maternity hospital. Increasing numbers of GPs are now locums and rural areas increasingly cannot get doctors. The HSE cannot recruit for about 2000 consultant positions and almost every about to start intern in the SWAH cancelled their FY2 at the last minute to work in Sligo because the pay was better (that causes major safety issues there for the HSC in NI). This contrasts against what people are expecting from their medical services in having efficient safe service yet housing in most positions seems to be a major contributor to prevent it.

I'm not saying there isn't other reasons but housing is there as both a massive reason and a massive contributor to other reasons for why people young and old are leaving and the longer we let this continue the less competitive and less attractive Ireland will be for talent and investment.

Well firstly it isn’t 2003 anymore, the economics and demographics of those in healthcare are substantially different. We now have a substantial number of graduate entry medics who pay 30k per year and direct entry pay more per year than I paid for my entire med school stay. The price of rent near universities are now so expensive that my niece’s school (in NI) is now coaching them on not going to Dublin and encouraging students to apply for Oxford, Cambridge and other prestigious universities as it is cheaper, and the dropout rate is lower because of this. The wage in real world terms for NCHDs has also dropped with the wage disparity being atrocious between here and other English-speaking nations.

In your post you make the point that things haven’t changed in the last 20 years, and you state that “buying a house is not the most important consideration for a twenty something” yet those are contrary statements. 20 years ago, the rates of home ownership for people in their 20s were greater than now so if things haven’t changed there must be a large number of 20somethings out there wanting a house and not seeing it possible in this market. Excluding medics from this when debt has increased, and wage value has decreased in the intervening 20 years this doesn’t really make sense.  

Of course, other factors will play a part in emigration like workplace conditions but to discount housing doesn’t make sense. Medics get paid less proportional, are more in debt and emigration is now easier with a faster route to home ownership and a better lifestyle to boot.

What I do feel on a personal level is wrong is the number of people telling us that economic and social issues such as brain drain of skilled workers abroad is “normal and expected” and that nothing should be done to counter it. Be the underlying reasons housing or conditions the idea that we don’t listen and change nothing is shortsighted and decreasing the competitiveness of the country. Ireland is not immune to market forces and no exceptionalism exists to prevent the good economic fortunes of the last decades reversing if it takes its eyes off the ball.

Finally in your post before this you stated I am weaving a narrative yet are you not doing the same thing here claiming this is not an issue? You also stated that “You have claimed to work in the health sector” in a dismissive tone yet neither of us have proved we work in the health sector at all. You claim to be 20 years senior to me so is it not possible that we have different viewpoints from our interactions and experiences in the past? Do you not think that I may have slightly better hold on the trends and views of those in their 20s and 30s considering that I am one of them. This alongside your comments the previous week expanding on something I didn’t say imply you aren’t truly listening to what I am saying and projecting what you think I am saying which isn’t conducive to debate and understanding the ‘otherside’.