Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

The Irish voter is nuanced enough to know that it is the theoretical numbers that decides in the first instance along with substantial policy alignments that decides the make up of government. IMO MM saying that he would not go into gov with FG - that was his personal opinion not the party opinion. I assume he meant that if he had a choice he would not. He, like all of them , have to be careful, especially during election time, what they say in case they might lose voters

First preference means nothing? Gimme a break.

Do you actually know how STV works? In the last election in Dublin West Leo Varadkar couldn't get Emer Currie elected because all of the initial transfer of first preference votes came from SF as they hoovered up 28.6% of the first preference vote. Varadkar couldn't exceed the quota because he hadn't enough FP votes and therefore had no votes to transfer to Currie .

And you win seats by having transferable votes, preferably from the first vote. That is by exceeding the quota from an impressive FPV.

Also the first preference vote is a real indicator of how well a politician has served their constituency. Taoiseachs or Ministers scrimping by hoping on the Greens to get knocked out for a few transferable votes is just embarrassing.

A lot of Sinn Fein voters actually are British

The most important thing in STV in multi seat constituency is to keep rmthe vote down of strong canditates.

Willie O Dea hoovers up a lotbof votes but fails to bring in a running mate. FG tactics are to split the vote usuaaa evenly as possible so as to give canditates a xhanxe of staying in tge race as long as possible

Garret Fitzgerald famously once reduced his own vote so low that he had the least first preferences of three FG canditates in a four seat constituency. He got the three canditates elected as he picked up transfers as other canditates got elected.

The ideal situation is where canditates pick up tge last two seats in a constituency

This is going way off topic but the first time he was up for election as a sitting Taoiseach was 2020 which was by a wide margin his worst result making it in by the skin of his teeth on the 5th count showing his constituency were not that happy with him at all.

It must be so ironic to the SF heads that if, we had the UK FPTP system here, they would likely be in government already. I didnt know the 1973 election results, that was an interesting read.

Yes I said his constituency were not happy with him..... what are you trying to argue about? It doesn't matter the exact reason that a sitting taoiseach got back in by the skin of his teeth except that it happened and was incredibly embarrassing for him.

Even Una Mullaly is getting tired of SF nonsense.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2024/01/01/una-mullally-what-voters-need-from-sinn-fein-in-2024-is-less-attack-dog-more-vision/

I don't see Una like that,she's an asset to Sinn Féin provided Belfast listen to her

That's the great imponderable here that she more or less says,we all know Sinn Féins goal is a united Ireland vote as soon as possible and its going to be a thinly veiled price for government that Fianna Fáil might give them

The preferred UI outcome of a vote up north or even that it would be given is far from certain

So you could have Sinn Féin in government with everything going wrong,taking all the flack and no UI which would be a disaster for the Belfast mandarins

So really She's right,less Angry Pierse and more calm collected we can do better and yes they'd be mad not to listen to what she's wrote but do ya know they probably won't as its all about get the keys first ,get in a position to demand a vote,pirouetting policies, all of them if necessary as the wind blows,winging the rest of it

It's no puff journalism

,,,or just run the country according to an agreed programme for government like all the governments before them and calmly create a Plan for a UI as part of that programme and in accordance with our constitutional aspiration?

Perhaps but a core bit of SF's vote are angry populist reactionary types.

So if SF gets more considered, more mature, more statemen like i.e. move to the centre a bit more, the angry voter types will abandon them and move elsewhere.

Most people don't care about a UI apart from a few head bangers.

If SF makes a UI a priority, voters will abandon them in droves because in their own lives, there are 10 things more important that need to be fixed.