Russia - threadbanned users in OP

I think that's the main issue here. Nobody expected Ukraine to put up such a fight. For a lot of people, Ukraine was just another failing former Soviet republic, riddled with corruption and not really capable of withstanding and all-out Russian assault. Ukraine had been caught flat-footed in 2014, and while they had taken massive strides in reforming the country and the armed forces, there was no real telling how well these reforms had taken root. I know that I expected this war to be over in a couple of weeks when things first kicked off. I was wrong and I'm glad that I was. Even the battle of Gostomel airport in the early days of the war, when Ukrainian forces defeated a Russian airborne landing and thus foiled the coup de main that Russia had been hoping for, was widely seen as a valiant last stand. It was only when the massive Russian columns heading to Kyiv became bogged down that it began to dawn on many that Russia might not be as all-powerful as it appeared to be. In short, no one expected the tactical and strategic acumen of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and no one really expected the Russian Armed Forces to be as bad as they were.

And don't get me wrong, by conventional wisdom, Ukraine should have been out of the fight long ago. By conventional wisdom, Russia should have been able to establish air superiority and ground the Ukrainian Air Force within the opening weeks of the war. By conventional wisdom, the Black Sea should be a Russian lake at this point. Russia had, and in the case of the navy still has, the advantage in numbers and equipment. and if under more competent leadership, would have been able to exploit this advantage. Russia still has cruise missile capable submarines and corvettes in the Black Sea, they should have naval supremacy in that theater simply on the account of having a navy, which Ukraine effectively doesn't have at the moment. Despite the loss of the Moskva, it isn't Ukraine's conventional strength that has opened the Black Sea corridor, it is their skill in the use of unmanned surface drones that is keeping the Russian fleet confined to the eastern Black Sea and to port, where they're easy prey for Storm Shadow, etc. . And that is emblematic of the bigger picture. The Ukraine war, despite some major pitched battles, is not a conventional war along the lines that most militaries had expected in the early 21st century. And that's what's throwing a lot of international observers and analysts off.

Markus Reisner is a Colonel in the Austrian Armed Forces. Joined the Bundesheer in 1997, entered the Theresian Military Academy (Austria's primary military academy) in 1998 for officer training. Most of the 2000s after graduation, he spent as an officer in numerous reconnaissance units, as well as the Jagdkommando, the Austrian counterpart to the Irish Army Ranger Wing. During that time he was also part of Austrian UN detachments in Bosnia, Kosovo, Afghanistan, Chad and the Central African Republic. From 2014 to 2016, he went through the staff officer's training course at Austria's National Defense Academy, the country's senior officer training establishment. After graduating, and getting two PhDs, he want back into the field, serving as commander of the Bundesheer detachments in Mali in 2019 and Kosovo in 2021. He was also assigned as commandant of the Theresian Military Academy and, since 2022 is commander of the Guards Battalion based in Vienna.

All in all, that's quite a bit of experience here. And to be honest, while I do believe that Col. Reisner is a bit downbeat and pessimistic in his assessments, that is a good thing in my eyes. The vast majority of posters on this thread want Ukraine to win, me included. But because the vast majority of us don't have decades of military experience under our belt, we tend to get swept away with our optimism at times, and as a consequence see the liberation of Kharkiv or Kherson as a sign that the enemy is weaker than they actually are. But you can't build a military campaign on optimism. You can't bank on your opponents being incompetent or ill-equipped, doing so is a surefire way of losing men and equipment, and failing to reach your objectives. As an officer who has not only gone through regular officer training at the Theresian Academy but also a staff course for senior officers, Col. Reisner is likely very aware of this, and it is likely that this, rather than any sympathies for Russia, is what colors his thinking.

And while there is plenty of idiocy and incompetence in the Russian Armed Forces, the very fact that they're still able to keep their forces in the field supplied to the degree that they are, the fact that they can continue to order/cajole/force/coerce their infantry to continue attacking Ukrainian lines and to hold the lines that they have, the fact that they are still able to coordinate multi-pronged mass ballistic missile, cruise missile and drone attacks, all this indicates that there is also a core of competent or semi-competent staff within the organisation to keep things running. I think we tend to forget or discount that, and I have a feeling that certain members of Ukraine's senior command staff fell into that same trap with the summer offensive.

Never mind, that guy is not worth responding to.