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"average Dublin house prices should fall to ‘the €300,000 mark" according to Many Lou McD.

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Comments

  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    There are 562 properties in Dublin advertised at less than €300k on myhome.ie today. 187 of those are houses.

    That is out of 2,678 properties listed for sale as of today.

    21% of all properties available for sale today in Dublin are asking less than €300k.

    So there already are properties available at Mary Lou's target range.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,964 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ...are they livable houses, i.e. can people actually walk in and live without any major works being done, and are those houses in places that are actually safe to live in?



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    That's up to the individual really Wanderer. Does every home that gets sold have to be in turnkey condition? And what is a safe area to live in?



  • Posts: 14,708 [Deleted User]


    You don’t think site closures, labour shortages, supply chain disruption, cost increases etc have significant effects on home building?

    How would you overcome them?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,964 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    do you have a problem with people living in sub standard conditions, which potentially could be unsafe both physically and mentally?

    for example, if the area has a high level of crime, anti social behavior etc? noting, living under such conditions can cause a significant amount of destress for habitants, which commonly results in criminal outcomes, and other dysfunctional outcomes including addiction etc etc



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,254 ✭✭✭MegamanBoo


    Of course it had an impact, nobody's saying it didn't.

    But we were well below the required housing output before it happened.

    Also, plenty of other industries were just as badly affected by Covid, I don't hear any one else suggest it more than halved their output in the last four years.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    The thread is about Sinn Fein. Should we not discuss Sinn Fein on it?

    I jump in and out of the thread so trying to say I am "foaming at the mouth" is just attacking the poster and not discussing the topic. Maybe you can discuss the topic of the thread?

    On the 2020 manifesto

    Abolish the property tax for one I disagree with.

    Tax the rich, which was 140k in 2020 and more recnt was 100k, who knows what it iwll be tomorrow.

    If you read the document it would seem Ireland has a magic money tree, at the same time Sinn Fein want to go after the multinationals.

    None of it adds up, but thats the 2020 document. Since then as I posted on this thread they are totally incoherent. Now you might not like to hear it but that's the truth. So maybe instead of making comments about me you could make some comment to back up why Sinn fein are not incoherent.

    Post edited by Boards.ie: Mike on


  • Posts: 14,708 [Deleted User]


    Covid began early 2020, we are now early 2024 and the effects are still being felt in the industry, how can you possibly state it didn’t significantly affect house building during the term of this Government.

    That completely lacks credibility.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,254 ✭✭✭MegamanBoo


    I had a look at some of these houses that @downthemiddle shared. Some below 50sqm. Some boarded up. Some have tenants in situ.

    From my experience of looking at the lower end of the market the value isn't really there. I've seen several cases where if you start to investigate the house there's some problem not listed by the estate agent so the banks won't lend.

    Also a lot of these houses look to be more than 30 years old. So straight away you have to factor rewire and possibly re-roofing. Both very expensive at today's prices.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,964 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    fair play, i didnt bother my arse looking, as the most likely issues are exactly what you stated, we d call this, clearly obvious! comments of the 'availability' of such properties is just pure ignorance at this stage!



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    Well the best one at the moment is the government one, come next election I don't know because the manifesto's haven't been released yet

    But, from all indications Sinn Fein over the last 4 years is not budging from their strategy which is a disaster. As per the latest document on housing they want to create a government construction company to builds houses and like outlined already on this thread that would be a mess.

    But then again I don't have the huge experience of construction and housing cost which you have



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    SF in the last election polled very highly in areas that traditionally have high levels of crime and anti social behaviour. These properties are less than the magical 300k figure plucked from the sky by the leader of SF. Does it not stack up then that SF followers would purchase property in these areas?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,474 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    No one is arguing that certain types of homes in certain areas could/should be cheaper, the "argument" is how SF are going to achieve this, because they have given zero detail on how they are going to do it.

    The idea that the average Dublin house price will be 300K is just farcical though. You would need 10s of thousands of houses for 150-200K to achieve that average number, it just isnt going to happen.

    A better idea to campaign under would be something like "We will build social housing units for under 300K"

    Post edited by Boards.ie: Mike on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,254 ✭✭✭MegamanBoo


    But I'm not saying it didn't significantly affect housing output.

    I'm say it didn't set the industry back anywhere near 100k houses, which is an estimate of how far behind we are in the last four years alone.

    Do you really think we'd be knocking out over 50k houses per year now if it wasn't for Covid? And be on top of retrofits?

    Did Covid make trades so unattractive to school leavers? Is it why construction workers are leaving, are they all off to somewhere where Covid didn't happen?

    Of course Covid knocked output during lockdowns, and to some degree for a while afterwards, as it did many other industries. That it's holding us back now is utter b****x



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    It will be nigh on impossible for Mary Lou to get the average Dublin house price to €300k when there will always be demand in premium areas (e.g. the house above for 895k in Clontarf which could well sell for €1m and have further investment put into it)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,474 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    Negative equity is a huge problem for anybody other than those in their "forever" home. First time buyers will be screwed if they are in negative equity, forced into starting families in 1/2bed room apartments.

    The other obvious flaw with this is that if people cannot afford to move up the property ladder, there won't be any starter homes for your family and children to buy. Negative equity means people are stuck where they are.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,327 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    It is likely they mean "median" when they say "average". So I wouldn't be getting too hung up on that if I were you. People (incorrectly) often use them interchangeably anyway. They can coincide, but not where a distribution is skewed.


    i.e. the price of an average house, vs the average price of a house.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,474 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    Sure, there are a number of houses for under 300K in Dublin, but thats very different from saying that the average price should fall to 300K.

    There are 200 houses that are over 1M, some of which are over 10M. You are going to need a lot more than 562 houses under 300K to offset that.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,723 ✭✭✭Finty Lemon


    Of course there will be some properties at below the threshold, but if SF have a target average of 300k, and the lowest price properties are at let's say 150k, then the top quartile house prices would need to be 430k or less based on a relatively normal distribution. Is that realistic for Dublin in 2028? I would not like to witness the conditions needed to bring this about.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,713 ✭✭✭Bluefoam


    Why are you talking about a large house in Clontarf... I don't think even Mary Lou is thick enough to think all houses should be priced at 300k... She's talking about the average price... that still means houses in City West, Jobstown & North Kildare... you're never getting a nice house in Clontarf for anywhere near reasonable money!



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,474 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    Some of them are in fairness, however some of them are tiny 1 bed terraces, which might be great for a young first time buyer, but they would be hard pressed to start raising a family in them.

    Now if the people who are in this market segment can accept that if this is what you get for a 300K budget rather than a 100sqm 3 bed semi with a front and rear garden, then you can start to cater for this demographic, but I dont believe thats the case.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Because for the AVERAGE house price in Dublin to be 300k you have to consider all areas and properties in the county.

    That house in Clontarf at 895k requires a property in Clondalkin to be asking minus 295k to get an average of 300k for both properties.

    Nice deal if you can get it, SF to give you a house in Clondalkin plus 295k cash.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I think I'm on the same side of this argument as you GreeBo. Mary Lou and SF are absolutely clueless here. I was just pointing out that there are properties in Dublin for the value that ML plucked out of the sky.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,474 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    Well its the sort of detail that is kinda important isn't it?

    I'll get "hung up" based on what they tell me they are going to do. If they mean (har har) median then say median. If they dont know the difference then that just further reduces their credibility.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,474 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    Erm, are we going to have to explain what an average is?



  • Posts: 14,708 [Deleted User]


    Bit of back tracking there so, but at least you are making progress, you now accept that Covid has significantly affected house building.

    Covid certainly caused disruption in intake of trades people into training courses and without doubt led to the permanent loss of many construction workers from the industry, either due to taking jobs in other sectors, emigration etc. Was that the governments fault, can they force people onto construction sites? Of course not.

    The government also cannot force developers to build houses if costs make in uneconomic to do so. There is also no way that this government could have set up a State controlled development company in the timeframe of this government to deliver the houses you think should have been built.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,254 ✭✭✭MegamanBoo


    What is it that you like about the government policy?

    What have they done that has increased the supply of housing in Ireland?

    Is there anything you'd change or improve about their policies? Any area you think they are weak on?

    And where did SF say they're going to create a national housing company, I may have missed that?



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    To a Sinn Fein follower, yes you probably will have to. Basic math is clearly not an area of interest or experience.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,254 ✭✭✭MegamanBoo


    I'm not backtracking at all, where are you getting that from?

    Of course Covid impacted housing, as I've always acknowledged, just not to the degree that it can be used as an excuse for how far behind we are.

    The government can't force people into IT and pharma either, but it does heavily incentivize training and conversion courses. Why hasn't it done the same for construction? Why are apprentices on 8euro an hour and getting charged college fees on top?

    I appreciate costs have risen, as they have for many other industries but this itself isn't making housing unaffordable. I'm not up on the latest figures but I believe up to just a few years ago, construction costs, namely materials and labor, only made up about 1/3 of a house price.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,723 ✭✭✭Finty Lemon



    The average is pretty meaningless without looking at the spread anyway. Most housing markets are relatively normally distributed but with some positive skewing, meaning the median price will be lower than the mean. Still not enough to bring the median to 300k in a Dublin context, but I stand to be corrected here. A 300k average with a focus on more 3 bed semis at 110 to 120sq m is not achievable because the lower end of the distribution is simply too high in cost.



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