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"average Dublin house prices should fall to ‘the €300,000 mark" according to Many Lou McD.

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,262 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    Where do you see 100k? Is it not 70k for the land?


    image.png




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,262 ✭✭✭✭Geuze



    That is exactly what we should be doing.

    Everything within canals in Dublin should be 4-6 storey blocks, yes.


    I walk along Cork street / Meath / Thomas streets, loads of vacant and derelict sites.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,474 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    I 100% agree that we should certainly be building up within the cities to avail of public transport instead of carparks and more road traffic.

    However, "loads" doesn't last very long. We need 30K units a year I believe. So unless you are seeing hundreds of thousands, we have a couple of years worth of sites available.

    The next problem is that council apartments/flats are not very popular, even as mixed development, they are also expensive to develop.

    Meanwhile SF are promising people houses for under 300K. There is nothing that can square that circle.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,262 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    I have a radical suggestion. Replace all low-density 1 and 2 storey houses within canals in Dublin.......


    image.png


    .....with Hausmann-style apt blocks like in Paris.


    image.png




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,566 ✭✭✭DataDude


    Such an important point and very frustating how frequently it goes unchallenged from otherwise reputable entities

    Most egregious example ever was the SCSI, assumedly pumping for ludicrous vacancy incentives, showing how it ‘wasn’t viable’ to restore many properties.

    Pre refurbishment values just taken at face value without any basic economic challenge to suggest they should simply adjust down to reflect build costs and post build values.

    https://scsi.ie/renovate/



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 185 ✭✭drop table Users




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,474 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    Sure, and if you can build them for 300K I'll have 4 please!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    What are you talking about? None of that made sense. Are you trying to say 5 people on 100k a year can build 100 houses? you are aware of the different trades required to build a house?

    Hire these contractors from who? so outbid the people the contractors are already working for?

    I am not sure how you got that from Sinn Fein because they have never mentioned anything of the sort. In all communication they have said they dont want to rely on Private sector which would rule out all sub contractors. See below

    https://www.sinnfein.ie/housing-4

    Sinn Féin are determined to end Ireland's shameful housing and homeless crises. Shortage of council and affordable housing to buy or rent is one of the most pressing issues facing our society.

    We must reject the Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil approach - and their reliance on the private sector - and get back to building houses.

    Sinn Féin would deliver the largest public house building programme that Ireland has ever seen that will deliver secure homes for all.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,262 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    I take their reference to the private sector to mean private sector property developers.

    For example, the LA and the AHB often buy units or entire developments from private sector property developers.


    Have SF actually stated that they would establish a semi-state building contractor?

    Maybe they have, and I missed it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,262 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    We must reject the Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil approach - and their reliance on the private sector - and get back to building houses.

    I read this as increasing LA new-builds and AHB new-builds.


    I read this as follows: if the 31 LA and te AHB sector build more new houses, then we can reduce reliance on buying units from private sector developers.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,262 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    Hire these contractors from who? so outbid the people the contractors are already working for?


    SF have stated that they intend to increase stamp duty to 12.5% on comm property, so I guess they hope that capital and labour will pivot away from comm property to residential construction.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,502 ✭✭✭Former Former Former


    Have SF actually stated that they would establish a semi-state building contractor?

    per EOB it would be done through approved housing bodies (Cluid and the like) and the local authorities.

    This is an even worse idea. Why?

    1. Because the LAs do not have any experience in delivering large scale housing. That means 30 LAs need to be staffed with experienced and competent construction managers, rather than just one central body. That’s a multi year project even to be able to start work on the first site, and will create huge duplication and redundancy.
    2. if the LAs are given quotas to hit, they’ll end up competing with each other for labour and materials. Thus, the cost goes up and up.
    3. When (inevitably) some councils do better than others, we’ll end up in a situation where your access to affordable housing depends on your postcode, and you’ll have every local politician screaming about unfairness and preferential treatment.

    I’m sorry to be so negative but this is important. Peddling easy answers is great for winning votes but this is going to be an unholy mess when it comes to execution.

    If the fix was so easy, I’m pretty sure the current government would be rolling it out right now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,327 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    There is another one which gives a more detailed breakdown. There was circa 65k for land, plus 20% for finance costs for the land, which then got rolled up into the price of the house whereupon VAT was calculated on it and added at 13.5%


    It contributed about 100k to the quoted overall "cost" of 450k. Another way of looking at it would be that, if you halved the cost of the land, the "cost" of the house would drop by 50k - not 35k



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,327 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    What are you talking about? None of that made sense. Are you trying to say 5 people on 100k a year can build 100 houses? you are aware of the different trades required to build a house?

    The discussion was on the margin of 5m+ which would be due to the developer on top of all the regular profits/costings for those 100 houses. All the other inputs have already been compensated for at that point before the final 5m is tacked on.

    If you think that that is an appropriate margin on top of everything else, then I simply ask whether you think that his magnificent input could be replicated by hiring a team of people as in the purely hypothetical example I gave. That team of people only replace what the developer personally adds. All other inputs remain the same - professional fees and subcontracting out the work etc.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,327 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    Which photo is which? I'm forever confusing Ringsend and Paris



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,327 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    The increase of the money available in grants for derelict properties etc. was immediately reflected in the asking prices for many such properties which were put up for sale as a result. One could always argue that maybe they wouldn't have been put up for sale otherwise, but there would be other alternative methods to bring such properties to market.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    In other words a load of people who have no idea what building costs are came up with some numbers and now you think it's down to 5m?

    Especially when you consider the person I seen posting most on this thread and saying they knew the cost of a house was posting on another forum because they didn't know how much cavity insulation was. Somehow I doubt the numbers you are running with are within an arses roar of the actual ones.

    The question I was answering was about the government setting up a construction company themselves and the issues they would have. If you want to carry on with numbers from people who by the looks of it never worked on a site, carry on. I think I posted to you already about a QS, you get one yet to add any content to these numbers you got?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,109 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    How many people would be put in to negative equity on SF's idea of a 300k average Dublin house price?

    They'd have to crash the country to get remotely near what they say. They'd be putting a lot of construction workers out of jobs as housing becomes even more unviable to fund as well.

    Then they would have to address the banks because their balance sheets would be smashed.

    Lots of job losses, people in trouble with their mortgages, their assets devalued...

    I don't think they think they have thought it through.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,327 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    Not sure what you are on about. SCSI figures include a margin of more than 50k per unit. I'm applying that to 100 houses to get 5m.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    They will crash the whole economy, not just the housing market. Mass unemployment and all you will hear from Sinn Fein supporters is "Eoin wrote a book" :-)



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,474 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo



    If its that easy why arent we falling over ourselves with developers and tradesmen? Surely any logical developer would take just €4.5M profit and spend the rest to attract whatever trades the needed?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,327 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    Because he knows there is a very high probability that there will be even more money in it for him if he hangs on until next year, and so on



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,474 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    I think you missed my point tbh.

    Why isnt everyone setting up as a developer if they can just hire 5 lads for 500K and make 4.5 million quid easy money.

    For example, why arent you doing it?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,723 ✭✭✭Finty Lemon


    If there is no margin by definition in the construction of EOBs proposed project housing, how will the government incentivize construction companies to get involved? Is the idea to employ people as direct labour by the new authority? Taking on permanent employees will bring a 30-40% salary overhead by definition in the public sector.

    Also, public tendering processes will not deliver savings on material costs, the opposite is more likely.

    Would anyone want to spend 300k on a house that they don't fully own or can't sell on the open market.

    Credit to Eoin OBroin committing the idea to paper but the proposal needs to be examined in detail.

    It seems at first glance that the 300k figure was decided and then everything worked back to that. Deleting site costs and developer margin seems like a backward admission that the 300k claim is not deliverable.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,252 ✭✭✭✭_Kaiser_


    I'd just be amazed that Mary Lou commented on an actual Irish issue myself. Would give her credit for that one.

    In general though, she and SF in general seems more concerned about the Israel/Hamas conflict (something that let's be honest makes zero diffference to us here in Ireland), or on about Unification most of the time (which most here wouldn't actually support/care about in the face of far more immediate and serious local issues or when the reality of having to pay for it sunk in).

    If SF want to actually get support on the day they'd be far better off focussing on these more important local issues.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,327 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    Because the land is being hoarded. The recent taxation measure was brought in to try to combat this, but it is a bit too low to have had any impact yet


    BTW, I wasn't suggesting the developers just hire 5 lads. That was in relation to the ability of the public sector to substitute for the developers. I focused the response on the developer margin aspect



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    A United Ireland will drive a huge tax burden on the tax payer in the Republic of Ireland, Sinn Fein fire out the odd comments to keep the online "republicans" happy while doing absolutely nothing to bring about a United Ireland.

    They managed to close the government in the North again. Hardly a good sign of building relationships in the North is it?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 694 ✭✭✭batman75


    I think Gerry must feed her a script every now and again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 694 ✭✭✭batman75


    The price of land, raw materials, labour , the world economy and supply will determine the average price of a house in Dublin. It is delusional from Mary Lou. In Kilkenny City you'd be hard pressed to get a house for less than 300k so to expect it to come down to 300k in Dublin is fantasy thinking.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    Ahh Sinn Fein expect all their supporters to work for free on building houses



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