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EV Depreciation

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 106 ✭✭gammon199


    The advice I gave is a general rule of thumb and no you cant spend your money on whatever you want when you need loans, its not your money, its the banks

    For housing the central bank has set strict rules of 4 times income on mortgages.

    Similar rules don't exist in the exact same way for car loans, but they should.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 828 ✭✭✭CivilEx


    I'm on the same wavelength as you on this one. Cost to change every three years has worked for me also. I never got involved in the PCP or leasing side of things, where it's surprising the value you can get if your car has no finance on it. The first question I am always asked by dealers is if there is finance outstanding on the car. Once past that point, the cost to change is the only number, as trade in values are smoke and mirrors when trading up, particularly if a dealer is trying to sell you finance too.

    We are going through a huge correction in car prices generally since last October where I think anyone thinking of trading up should think about stepping away for a few months or otherwise they will risk converting a loss on paper into an actual financial loss with increased payments / finance costs.



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 40,534 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gumbo


    I seen you quoted me for some reason. You’ve moved on from drills now.

    IMG_0130.jpeg




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 426 ✭✭Woodie40


    Life is short, if driving a nice car gives you pleasure, why shouldn’t you do that.

    Some people spend their money on alcohol and gambling and some don’t.

    I work hard and I like cars, they have always lost money, nothing new.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 118 ✭✭FaaF


    I have the cash available and am looking at the BYD Seal and Tesla Model 3.

    In addition to the traditional depreciation seen with new cars for decades, a large portion of recent EV depreciation is due to price cuts from the manufacturers. We will likely see some more of that in 2024 - particularly from those that haven't cut yet (though I do believe there will be further from Tesla and some cuts from BYD as they ramp up their supply chain).

    That being said, as margins contract, the scope for further cuts will diminish and we'll be back to plain old depreciation (just look at the margins Tesla had pre-pricecuts versus traditional manufacturers - they were not sustainable and were always going to entice new entrants to the market).

    I may be wasting my time though as I don't earn the €250,000 one needs to earn before they can buy a new Tesla or BYD Seal - and, possibly, the €300,000 one might need to earn before they're permitted to buy the new Model 3 Performance, when released 😂



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,125 ✭✭✭sk8board


    Like everything, people’s reasons for buying cars vary wildly, as will affordability.

    i love cars, but I’ve also never had car finance of any kind over decades, even though I can ‘afford’ it.

    if You’ve been on these EV forums back in 2019/20, there were countless posts from people buying into EVs (M3’s, Niro’s, kona’s etc) out of old diesels and things and this was the most expensive car of their life, but they also felt it was going to be their lowest total cost of ownership, between fuel savings and depreciation.

    2020 EV sales look like a lifetime ago:

    IMG_5204.jpeg




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,963 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    Where do you get Evs are flawed for most drivers ? Take a look at average annual mileage and average journey length and come back to me.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,125 ✭✭✭sk8board


    I agree with you, the only people I know who actually have an obvious justification for an EV are people who do high mileage - but they also know that their cars have collapsed in value, just like any other high mileage vehicle.

    however I think equally there’s a gulf between government policy being environment-based, and EV buyers being cost of ownership based.

    have you ever met someone who bought their EV purely for climate reasons?

    The cost of ownership argument for an EV, by and large, has not been proven yet.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 106 ✭✭gammon199


    I took a look at average annual mileage and average journey length and it told me that a lot of potential owners don't own a house, don't have a driveway, don't have thousands of euros spare to purchase an EV and they don't want to bother there landlord to install a charge point or use expensive public charging or live with parents for the next 10 years and they would rather fill up in 2 mins at the thousands of petrol stations across the country and spend money on other things instead of expensive EV's

    Is that ok that they are flawed for them and they have no interest in battery cars?



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 40,534 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gumbo


    Where did you get this info?

    I think it’s perfectly fine to have no interest in battery cars, in the same way some people have no interest in petrol cars. But I wouldn’t in a petrol forum ranting and raving why petrol doesn’t suit me. Move on, enjoy your holiday and forget bout it. Buy the car that suits you.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,818 ✭✭✭John arse


    You're not getting an EV for yourself then I take it???



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,963 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    Why would the stats on average annual mileage and journey length have the data points you are suggesting, I think you are making it up.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,885 ✭✭✭Casati


    18.59% of new cars sold this year were EV (i.e full electric). By definition that's over 81% of most drivers bought something else that suited them better. Don't get me wrong, 18.59% is a big chunk of the market, but its still way lower than the total number of diesels/ hybrid diesels sold - and as we have seen its not down to supply issues but rather that most drivers still see some flaw with EV's.

    I'm very interested in buying an EV myself at some stage, but have ordered another diesel for 241 as despite looking at all the options in detail the purchase of an EV would still be a flawed purchase for my circumstances - and its not down to the average journey length or annual mileage



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,885 ✭✭✭Casati


    Thanks for sharing - I doubt any 221 EV at any price point could be traded in for same car on a 241 for 8k.

    I saw similar cost to change on a Tiguan after two years- but was ridiculed and dismissed by some posters



  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators Posts: 7,041 Mod ✭✭✭✭graememk


    Do many diesels come with ad-blue now? I know its been creeping into smaller and smaller engines (3 out of 4 of our tractors now use it)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 737 ✭✭✭Buzwaldo


    There is a bit of a leap of faith in purchasing a first ev (you can always find reasons not to jump)

    When we did it 2 years ago we did some but not exhaustive research. Not sorry however, much prefer the electric driving experience, and enjoy the much reduced servicing required - hard to see myself going back.

    Like many we have had a fair bit of depreciation due to price drops etc but price to change is probably at ‘normal’ levels. (Second hand prices were ‘unbelievably good’ for a few years there on evs, and all second hand values were a bit inflated during/after Covid)



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 40,534 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gumbo




  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 40,534 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gumbo




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,731 ✭✭✭MojoMaker


    I bought an EV for environmental reasons, to contribute in my own small way. It was an easy transition and after testing the principle of use case vs value vs effect we moved to become a 2 EV household after a little less than a year.

    Fossil-fuelled vehicles gone from our house and not missed. Everything about them has been both easier and cheaper to manage as a bonus upside.

    Had the EVs been more expensive to run I would have done it anyway, they are simply vastly superior forms of personal transport.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,885 ✭✭✭Casati


    Yeah but is anybody trading in any 221 EV for a 241 for anything remotely close to that now?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 382 ✭✭Ev fan


    Excellent logical summary. I bought a Born this year getting a very good trade in on my 211 ID3. Since then my car has lost probably 20% in value depreciation plus another 2/3k because of new car price drops. I don't care now and won't until I go to trade again likely to be 2026. The issue then will be because EVs' are on a steep development curve 2026 cars could have significantly better batteries etc .......... which will make my older car less desirable. Again I will worry about that when the time comes. BTW I love the car - easy/smooth/quiet/comfortable driving and cheap to run. My only concern would be to see a large improvement in charging infrastructure.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 118 ✭✭FaaF


    The statement that "18.59% of new cars sold this year were EV (i.e full electric). By definition that's over 81% of most drivers bought something else that suited them better." is completely inaccurate.

    I'd argue that the percentage of people driving diesels that don't suit them, whether they know it themselves or not, is a very significant number - well in excess of the 18.59% of EV buyers who did their research, left aside a lot of the media scaremongering and bought what actually suited the types of journeys they are doing.

    When you look at the average journey lengths faced by Irish drivers, there's no way diesel fueled vehicles should be selling in the numbers they are - but EVs are eating away at the percentage sales by an increasing number each year.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,885 ✭✭✭Casati


    So what if you think people have bought the wrong cars - what they believe as car buyers is more important as it's their money they are spending, not yours. Unfortunately your own personal feelings don't trump the actual buyer behaviour.

    Also if my stats are 'completely inaccurate' then please enlighten me- I got them off beepbeep.ie



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 118 ✭✭FaaF


    I'm not saying the stats of percentage EV buyers are wrong. I'm more referring to the statement that they bought what suited them better. There are plenty of people driving diesel vehicles that rarely, if ever, venture on journeys beyond 3-4 miles.

    If it weren't for media scaremongering, perhaps they would have already made the move to EV - though even petrol would be a much better choice over diesel.

    In a lot of cases, people are driving diesels due to the manufacturers quoted MPG figures, completely irrelevant to such short journeys (or any for that matter) and the cheap tax available due to the past push by government towards diesel.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,673 ✭✭✭✭josip


    I doubt think it's valid to include the hybrid numbers in your totals. They're the inbetweeners and belong to neither side. Also looking at the trends, I think 2023 is the last year you will be able to make the above statement. In 2024, BEV will overtake diesel. We'll know by the end of Q1. Still way too many diesels being sold, but at last things heading in the right direction, albeit slower than hoped. Anyone buying a 241 diesel will need to be holding on to it for its lifetime I think. The country's love affair with diesel is drawing to a close and the appetite for them is no longer there.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,885 ✭✭✭Casati


    I could argue that many EV shouldn't have bought them either - I believe many buyers have paid far too much for cars they didn't need and have wasted a fortune now with massive depreciation - but they obviously felt that other more suitable cars were flawed and ultimately as they are spending the money that's all that matters.

    Focusing on average journey lengths and deciding what car people should buy is stupid, there are a whole range of other factors that go into making that decision - cost, depreciation, ability to charge, irregular journey lengths, number of seats, spec, warranty, performance, looks, brand, dealership relationship, car reviews etc etc.

    I can see EV sales growing for sure- the quality of the cars is getting better and the pricing drops led by Tesla and now VW will attract a lot more buyers into EV's - but that's not to say that all EV's are attractive purchases or suitable for all buyers. and some folks collecting new 241's that will tumble massive in value in a years time.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,232 ✭✭✭waterwelly


    At this stage I thought people had moved on from claiming EV's are any sort of good for the environment.

    If people really cared about the environment they would cycle, walk, use public transport etc.

    Buying an EV is easy, changing your lifestyle completely is tough though.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 118 ✭✭FaaF


    Sure, you could argue that some owners of EV's have bought a vehicle that doesn't suit them - but it's a much lower proportion because those buying EV's tend to look at all the relevant factors before making their decision as it's breaking from the norm. Much easier to buy diesel simply because "it's the done thing".

    Past pricing of EVs, and depreciation faced after purchasing at those prices, is now irrelevant if deciding whether to buy a Tesla Model 3, or whatever, today.

    Sure, EV manufacturers could cut pricing further. So too could ICE manufacturers. The profit margins, however, can be used to estimate then likelihood of that happening. Tesla, for example, still has reasonable margins so could cut pricing, but not to the extent that they did in 2023.

    As a previous poster alluded to - we are likely to see more depreciation on a 241 diesel than a 241 EV over the coming years - and I'm referring to those for which pricing has been cut during 2023.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,885 ✭✭✭Casati


    Have a look at the stats before you make statements about my numbers being valid or invalid. I haven't included hybrids in any diesel or petrol category, I have simply talked about the percentage of BEV's (18.59%) and compared that number to everything else- i.e everything bar full EV's. Hybrids are still cars, so can you explain (logically) why you think they shouldn't be included in 'everything bar BEV's' category?

    I've been hearing for years rhetoric that anybody buying a new petrol or diesel is daft and they will have to hold onto it for a lifetime- the reality is that as their sales drop, demand for used petrol and diesels is growing and they are holding their value a lot better than EV's. As diesel sales fall, used diesels (and petrols) are going to continue to see high demand. If EV's continue to see low VRT then the floodgates of cheap used EV's from UK will continue to open and drive down used prices - along with improvements in tech and a likely further reduction in new EV prices.



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  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 40,534 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gumbo


    I doubt anyone is trading in any car (petrol, diesel or electric) for that now.



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