EV Depreciation

I'm on the same wavelength as you on this one. Cost to change every three years has worked for me also. I never got involved in the PCP or leasing side of things, where it's surprising the value you can get if your car has no finance on it. The first question I am always asked by dealers is if there is finance outstanding on the car. Once past that point, the cost to change is the only number, as trade in values are smoke and mirrors when trading up, particularly if a dealer is trying to sell you finance too.

We are going through a huge correction in car prices generally since last October where I think anyone thinking of trading up should think about stepping away for a few months or otherwise they will risk converting a loss on paper into an actual financial loss with increased payments / finance costs.

Life is short, if driving a nice car gives you pleasure, why shouldn’t you do that.

Some people spend their money on alcohol and gambling and some don’t.

I work hard and I like cars, they have always lost money, nothing new.

Like everything, people’s reasons for buying cars vary wildly, as will affordability.

i love cars, but I’ve also never had car finance of any kind over decades, even though I can ‘afford’ it.

if You’ve been on these EV forums back in 2019/20, there were countless posts from people buying into EVs (M3’s, Niro’s, kona’s etc) out of old diesels and things and this was the most expensive car of their life, but they also felt it was going to be their lowest total cost of ownership, between fuel savings and depreciation.

2020 EV sales look like a lifetime ago:

I agree with you, the only people I know who actually have an obvious justification for an EV are people who do high mileage - but they also know that their cars have collapsed in value, just like any other high mileage vehicle.

however I think equally there’s a gulf between government policy being environment-based, and EV buyers being cost of ownership based.

have you ever met someone who bought their EV purely for climate reasons?

The cost of ownership argument for an EV, by and large, has not been proven yet.

Why would the stats on average annual mileage and journey length have the data points you are suggesting, I think you are making it up.

Thanks for sharing - I doubt any 221 EV at any price point could be traded in for same car on a 241 for 8k.

I saw similar cost to change on a Tiguan after two years- but was ridiculed and dismissed by some posters

There is a bit of a leap of faith in purchasing a first ev (you can always find reasons not to jump)

When we did it 2 years ago we did some but not exhaustive research. Not sorry however, much prefer the electric driving experience, and enjoy the much reduced servicing required - hard to see myself going back.

Like many we have had a fair bit of depreciation due to price drops etc but price to change is probably at ‘normal’ levels. (Second hand prices were ‘unbelievably good’ for a few years there on evs, and all second hand values were a bit inflated during/after Covid)

Yeah but is anybody trading in any 221 EV for a 241 for anything remotely close to that now?

The statement that "18.59% of new cars sold this year were EV (i.e full electric). By definition that's over 81% of most drivers bought something else that suited them better." is completely inaccurate.

I'd argue that the percentage of people driving diesels that don't suit them, whether they know it themselves or not, is a very significant number - well in excess of the 18.59% of EV buyers who did their research, left aside a lot of the media scaremongering and bought what actually suited the types of journeys they are doing.

When you look at the average journey lengths faced by Irish drivers, there's no way diesel fueled vehicles should be selling in the numbers they are - but EVs are eating away at the percentage sales by an increasing number each year.

I'm not saying the stats of percentage EV buyers are wrong. I'm more referring to the statement that they bought what suited them better. There are plenty of people driving diesel vehicles that rarely, if ever, venture on journeys beyond 3-4 miles.

If it weren't for media scaremongering, perhaps they would have already made the move to EV - though even petrol would be a much better choice over diesel.

In a lot of cases, people are driving diesels due to the manufacturers quoted MPG figures, completely irrelevant to such short journeys (or any for that matter) and the cheap tax available due to the past push by government towards diesel.

I could argue that many EV shouldn't have bought them either - I believe many buyers have paid far too much for cars they didn't need and have wasted a fortune now with massive depreciation - but they obviously felt that other more suitable cars were flawed and ultimately as they are spending the money that's all that matters.

Focusing on average journey lengths and deciding what car people should buy is stupid, there are a whole range of other factors that go into making that decision - cost, depreciation, ability to charge, irregular journey lengths, number of seats, spec, warranty, performance, looks, brand, dealership relationship, car reviews etc etc.

I can see EV sales growing for sure- the quality of the cars is getting better and the pricing drops led by Tesla and now VW will attract a lot more buyers into EV's - but that's not to say that all EV's are attractive purchases or suitable for all buyers. and some folks collecting new 241's that will tumble massive in value in a years time.

Sure, you could argue that some owners of EV's have bought a vehicle that doesn't suit them - but it's a much lower proportion because those buying EV's tend to look at all the relevant factors before making their decision as it's breaking from the norm. Much easier to buy diesel simply because "it's the done thing".

Past pricing of EVs, and depreciation faced after purchasing at those prices, is now irrelevant if deciding whether to buy a Tesla Model 3, or whatever, today.

Sure, EV manufacturers could cut pricing further. So too could ICE manufacturers. The profit margins, however, can be used to estimate then likelihood of that happening. Tesla, for example, still has reasonable margins so could cut pricing, but not to the extent that they did in 2023.

As a previous poster alluded to - we are likely to see more depreciation on a 241 diesel than a 241 EV over the coming years - and I'm referring to those for which pricing has been cut during 2023.