World Politics Digest thread

Nody · 29-09-2023 2:47pm

Dianne Feinstein, longest-serving female US senator in history, dies at 90

Feinstein’s death, confirmed to CNN by a source familiar, will hand California Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom the power to appoint a lawmaker to serve out the rest of Feinstein’s term. In March 2021, Newsom publicly said he had a list of “multiple” replacements and pledged to appoint a Black woman if Feinstein, a Democrat, were to retire.

pixelburp · 29-09-2023 2:56pm

I was only googling her the other day, lamenting the incredible percentage of septuagenarians and older that hold sway within the corridors of power in the US;

Itssoeasy · 15-10-2023 6:24pm

The polish election is being called the biggest polish election since 1989, and there’s pictures of poles in lines all around Europe waiting to vote.

L1011 · 15-10-2023 6:34pm

Hoping against hope that their far right populist just takes votes off PiS and they get a government suitable for this century out of it

breezy1985 · 15-10-2023 6:52pm

Feels like it could be a seismic election but I don't hold out much hope for fair democracy in elections in countries like this.

Nody · 15-10-2023 8:57pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121242360#Comment_121242360

It's not so much voter corruption as a society that's not moved on as far as the west; I recall a shooting in one of these countries where a local ganster opened up fire on another in a shopping mall killing an innocent child in the process. The comment from a work collegue was when I brought it up "Oh but it was only a gypsy". Now this was an four year university degree person with years of work experience so not your average inbreed hilly billy kind of person but it gives an idea that certain things really sit deeply ingrained.

Anyway; back to the election, initial slightly positive chance of a government change coming taken from here based on a 90 000 random voter selection at 900 polling stations (so larger polling than normal).

The exit poll for today’s parliamentary elections in Poland indicates that the ruling national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) has, as expected, won the largest share of the vote, with 36.8%.

However, if that vote share is confirmed in the official results – which are due to be announced by Tuesday – it is almost certain not to be enough to secure the governing majority PiS needs to remain in power for an unprecedented third term.

The centrist Civic Coalition (KO) is in second with 31.6%. Its potential partners in forming a new coalition government, the centre-right Third Way (13%) and The Left (8.6%), are third and fourth respectively, according to the exit poll, which was conducted by Ipsos.

Hermy · 15-10-2023 10:20pm

“Oh but it was only a four year university degree person with years of work experience so not your average inbreed hilly billy kind of person.”

Completely off topic I know but I think the double standard is worth noting.

Hopefully the exit poll holds true.

breezy1985 · 15-10-2023 10:23pm

I wouldn't be worried about actual clear voter fraud but the ability that the ruling party have to control the narrative is a huge hurdle for the opposition.

Polls are looking good so far and the opposition seem pretty buoyant.

Nody · 17-10-2023 9:52pm

The election — which ended with a record turnout of 74.4 percent — saw PiS return as the largest party, but without the ability to form a winning coalition in the 460-member lower house of parliament.

The final count had PiS with 35.4 percent, followed by the centrist Civic Coalition at 30.7 percent, the center-right Third Way at 14.4 percent, the Left with 8.6 percent and the far-right Confederation with 7.2 percent.

That means Law and Justice takes 194 seats in parliament, Civic Coalition gets 157, Third Way 65, the Left 26 and Confederation 18.

Civic Coalition, led by former Prime Minster and European Council President Donald Tusk, the Third Way and the Left have pledged to form a coalition government to oust PiS from power — together they have 248 seats.

The opposition also boosted its control of the less powerful upper chamber Senate, winning 66 seats to 34 for Law and Justice.

Taken from here.

Cody montana · 23-10-2023 8:14am

Sergio Massa, Argentina's economy minister, produced a big surprise by finishing first in the opening round of the country's presidential election, reflecting voter wariness about his chief rival, a right-wing populist who upended national politics.

Nody · 23-10-2023 8:57am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121273024#Comment_121273024

It's a sad day when someone makes Bolsonaro look sane by comparison but I could see him go through on similar notes as Trump simply for the hail marry outsider choice. Could easily lead to another military coup in some form following the crash of the state and the economy that he'd engineer esp. considering the VP is complaining the people who lead the last military coup are being accused unfairly (the fact over 30.000 people "disappeared" is not talked about). Either way I think Argentina's economy is crashing; the only question is how hard and for how long.

eire4 · 31-10-2023 2:09am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121252119#Comment_121252119

Given the disappointing election of Fick in Slovakia the Polish results were a welcome step in a more hopeful direction.

Good loser · 02-11-2023 1:44am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121273110#Comment_121273110

The extra votes for Massa this time around were 'bought'. The third candidate (now eliminated) was centre right and a decent prospect; she will work with Milei who still has a chance.

Massa took over in July last year and since then inflation has increased from 79% to 138%. How anyone could vote for him????

HalloweenJack · 02-11-2023 11:32am

If Milei wins, it'll be interesting to see how his libertarian project goes. I don't have high hopes but evidently Argentina's repeated economic failures would suggest that a new approach would be popular.

I don't know enough about Argentina to understand why it has been such a mess for the last twenty/thirty years but out of control inflation is nothing new, especially now when inflation is a problem in a globalised economy.

breezy1985 · 02-11-2023 11:43am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121314274#Comment_121314274

It's been a mess for a lot longer that 20/30 years. It was run by the military from 1930s to the 80s with only brief respites. Horrible mismanagement of what was once a strong economy and less value placed on the natural resources that made it strong were factors.

It's still in G20 which means their must be money in there somewhere or else the rest of the world really is a shtshow.

Good loser · 10-11-2023 2:59am

Wasn't Peron the start of the slippery slope? Like Chavez in Venezuela.

pixelburp · 19-11-2023 11:57am

Argentina going to the polls today; man what a bananas outcome that could yet yield. Just shows how wild a swing a population can take when pushed to desperation. Milei sounds like an absolute car crash waiting to happen, yet I can understand where his support comes from

HalloweenJack · 19-11-2023 3:22pm

Of course, if it ends in tears, it'll be because he wasn't allowed to do what he wants/needs and there is a shadowy elite cabal (that much-loved far-right word) in the background making sure he fails.

I actually find libertarianism ideas to be interesting but just too disastrous to really succeed. If there was a risk-free 'economy simulator', it'd be interesting to see how it'd play out. Unfortunately, you're playing with people's lives, even more dangerous in a place that has such a fragile economic history as Argentina.

Cody montana · 20-11-2023 12:33am

BREAKING: Javier Milei wins Argentinian presidential election

pixelburp · 20-11-2023 7:45am

A breakdown on the maniac about to take the reigns - though as the article notes, his party falls far short of a majority that he could enact his more insane proposals:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/20/who-is-javier-milei-argentina-new-president-far-right-what-does-he-stand-for

breezy1985 · 20-11-2023 10:07am

Safe to assume Argentina isn't gonna stop being a sht show over the next few years.

(Not that his defeat would have prevented that either.

pixelburp · 20-11-2023 10:12am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121390514#Comment_121390514

No. I suppose the "best" they could hope for is that a few demographics might do well if Milei's threatened "reforms" come to pass, but it'll also further impoverish huge tracts of the country at the same time if he really goes to town with the wilder ideas.

Brussels Sprout · 20-11-2023 12:03pm

Is there any other country that mirrors Argentina in that it was an economic powerhouse at the start of the 20th century and is now....well a bit of a joke.

David McWilliams has an Argentinian economist friend who he has on as a guest on his podcast now and then. One thing that I always remember him saying when asked to explain what's happened there for decades is "The Argentinian middle classes are great patriots when it comes to dressing up in the national colours and supporting our sports teams. However they are not great patriots when it comes to the fundamentals of civil society such as paying their taxes."

They seem to be in a vicious cycle of electing populists, who trash the economy, then running to the IMF which puts hardship on the bulk of the people who elect populists once more and rinse and repeat. The only difference this time is that it's not the left-wing Peronist populists but this "anarcho-captialist" libertarian fever dream.

breezy1985 · 20-11-2023 1:31pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121390948#Comment_121390948

Seems to be a very common middle and upper class attitude in South America. In most countries there is a massive racial split where the "white" Spanish middle/upper class almost literally do live in a different country to the poor and indigenous.

Don't think that is the case in Argentina though or if it is you don't hear about "black" or indigenous Argentina as much.

HalloweenJack · 20-11-2023 1:49pm

This is veering into anecdotal territory but from what I've heard from Brazilian friends in my time in Brazil and my brother who lives in Chile, Argentinians (and Chileans to a lesser extent) see themselves as more European than South American.

I think Mauricio Macri said something to this effect with comments about Brazil when he visited Spain a while back.

Brussels Sprout · 20-11-2023 2:59pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121391417#Comment_121391417

I think that flips both ways. I did the Inca Trail years ago. All the porters were from the indigenous Quechua community. They referred to the descendants of the Europeans, who dominate the power structures in Peru, as "The Spanish".

mistersifter · 21-11-2023 4:41am

Interesting to see the only other country mentioned by Milei in his victory speech was Ireland. Said he wants to replicate the success of the Irish economy. I assume he's referring to stuff like corporation tax and not housing.

Brussels Sprout · 21-11-2023 2:45pm

He seems like a bit of a one-man band. Very few members of the upper or lower house are affiliated with him. Can he do much if he's opposed in those Houses? I'm not that familiar with the powers of the Argentinian executive branch. Seems like a lot of the Latin American countries copy & pasted the American system and we know that that's easily gridlocked. Pedro Castillo got elected in Peru a few years ago as an unknown left wing populist but struggled to get anything enacted and generally led a chaotic regime before being impeached (at the third attempt) and ousted.

mistersifter · 21-11-2023 8:39pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121395924#Comment_121395924

yeah, never has anyone with fewer seats in congress been elected president. It seems Milei's election was a vote against the same old corrupt Kirchnerist/Personist politics, which Massa represented.

Former president Macri has offered his support so this will improve Milei's chances of making changes but it will be difficult to achieve his most extreme aims like scrapping the peso and central bank, and dollarizing the economy (getting rid of the national currency might require amending the constitution).

I think he has already back-tracked on some of this and other stuff like legalising the sale of organs, less gun controls, but he has re-committed to privatising public broadcasting and energy, and doing away with ministries for women/diversity/culture.

The energy issue is interesting as it's heavily subsidised - electricity costs almost nothing and petrol about 25 cent per litre. Similar with public transport in Buenos Aires. And Argentinians are struggling as is, so how will they react to increased costs under Milei. They're in for a tough few years so it might be back to Kirchnerism after this term.

pixelburp · 22-11-2023 8:19am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121397502#Comment_121397502

How does one do away with the Central Bank and survive as an economy? This bit baffles me greatly, albeit as one whose grasp of finance is tenuous at the best of times. Is there even a sniff of a rationale behind this that it could work, that a Central Bank could be a potential net negative on the economy <somehow>? I don't know if any credible country who got rid of their Central Bank and did well.

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