Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

If FF seat numbers collapse then the only viable option might be a SF/FG coalition.

Vanishingly unlikely. If FF lose big in the next GE a big chunk of those seats will almost certainly go to SF and that will almost certainly push them over the line to forming their preferred left coalition, if not an outright overall majority.

Again, I think you are underestimating the desire to not go back into what will have been a toxic relationship for them. If their GE vote falls or collapses altogether that is, If they hold ground around +20%, then they have the choices you outline. Not so much if they are around 15/16%

No chance.. the only way any one cleans up, is if they offer something different, speak the truth and are prepared to stir the wasps nest, zero chance of that with anyone currently in the dail...

Has mm announced when he is likely to step down ?

I think you are right in that SF will get the most seats, not many will argue that point.

But I dont see them getting enough seats for a majority, which means they have to join forces with FF, in order to form a govt.

If MM is in charge of FF, that wont happen. But a new leader may be more receptive to the idea.

My money is still on FFG returning to govt and locking out SF for a 2nd time.

A coalition with SF will be viewed by many as more toxic than the current coalition with FG.

If FF want to be in govt next term, they have no choice but to coalesce with either FG or SF.

I think that trumps any notion of "toxicity" within the party, as far as FF are concerned.

I'll rephrase that to the correct way of putting it;

A coalition with SF will be viewed by many as potentially more toxic than the current coalition with FG which has definitely been toxic for the FF party.

Of course there is also the possibility it may not be as toxic.

When sf are given by far the largest support as a single party, for a second time. Even more dramatic the next election, almost definitely. Will it be tolerated, for them to be shut out by ffg , whom many deem to have actually brought sf to where they are support wise, because of ffg very poor governance... ffg have given sf this surge, sf hasn't really done squat diddly...

If FF seat numbers collapse, then a SF/FG is the only option that can be ruled out.

FG/Labour/SD/Greens/Independents would come first, as would SF/PBP/I4C/SDs.

However, based on the current polls, SF/FF is favourite, with FF/FG/Greens in second place. I would not rule out that reversing between now and the election.

As for senior versus junior, some of the nonsense posted over the last few pages is best ignored for the rubbish propaganda that it is. FF and FG went into this government as equal partners. Any future SF coalition with FF will have to do the same.

Absolutely yes, it has happened many times before in Irish politics, 1948, 1954, 1973 etc.

In all those cases, there was one party far larger than all the others, and a coalition government shut them out.

I think this is a FF voter base that doesn't exist tbh.

And it will be those looking to the future on the one hand and at their own political survival on the other who will be the game changers IMO.

FF will be at that crossroads I talked of earlier if they are down around where they are now in the polls in a GE result.

Stay in what has been a toxic relationship or move in a new direction.

It very nearly happened in three successive elections, 1948, 1951 and 1954. The difference in 1951 was that the largest party was able to negotiate its own coalition with smaller parties and independents, regarded as one of the worst governments ever in Ireland. That is the challenge for Sinn Fein next time out, can they repeat the success of FF in 1951 while avoiding the tag of worst government ever. If they don't manage to get into government, they may also fail at the following one, sticking closely to the pattern of the late 1940s/early 1950s. In fact, FF might not have got back into government in 1957 if it wasn't for complete u-turns on policy:

"Fianna Fáil had produced a major policy document in January, criticising many of its own policies in regard to the economy. While they did not know an election was imminent this became the backbone of their manifesto. The importance of free trade was played up by Fianna Fáil in a clear rejection of the protectionist policies they had advocated in the past."

There are lessons in history for Sinn Fein, if they only would listen. I doubt that they are capable of that.

I don't really buy this "coalition with FG has been toxic for FF" line.

If you accept that FF's overriding political objective is to be in government, then the acid test of any coalition relationship is how many votes the party gets while in that relationship, and what are its chances of retaining power.

FF's low point was in 2011, when they secured just 17% of the vote, coming third after FG and Lab. At that time there was a real possibility that the party would disappear into oblivion. They've consolidated and rebuilt somewhat from that position; they got 22.2% and came second in the 2020 General election and are currently on about 20% in the polls.

The real lose during this period has not been FF but FG. In 2011 they got 36% of the vote and came first. They were down to 20.9% and third place in 2020; right now they are more or less level pegging with FF in the polls.

So, in a nutshell, FF have consolidated and modestly improved their electoral situation; FG have lost the huge lead they had. If this relationship has been costly to either party, surely it's FG?

If they (FF) dont coalesce, they dont get into govt.

I think the toxicity thing is a little over egged.

Their priority is to be in govt and they cannot do it on their own.

Eventually, all governments change, this means that eventually the percentage of vote gained by parties in government has to fall. If they regain power, it is because their vote went up in opposition. If those things didn't happen, we would never see a change in government.

So the rule of a working democracy is support for parties in government inevitably falls while support for parties in opposition inevitably rises. Those who paint this as something more significant as toxicity for certain parties or try to build more conspiracy theory-like conclusions on the basis of this are ignoring the basic reality.