Storm Babet - Oct 17th 2023

Seems to be running a few hours behind schedule. Was meant to start at 6am. Nearly 10am now and only got to Sherkin around 9am. Light rain falling in Cork.

Blocking to the north presumably, interesting to see how this plays out, could be very slow moving and areas under rainfall could get high totals even if not high rates.

Still a bit of uncertainty in the models for totals for the East tomorrow. GFS 06z just out and has 60mm+ for most of the Eastern side of Wicklow and 50mm+ for South Dublin, with the UKMO having even higher totals. However ECM, ICON and ARPEGE are backing off the heavier rainfall this morning. Some would still maybe warrant a yellow warning though I suppose.

There is, yellow warning in place for all of Leinster until 8pm Wednesday

Just to supplement that, here's the higher res AROME forecast for Cork and Waterford until 7pm tomorrow:

Expecting a nice rain shadow here in N Kildare

I'm not expecting severe flooding in the south, certainly not the apocalyptic nature of some of these models. We're getting say 90mm over two days. If it was 90mm over two or three hours, then yes, flooding. But 45mm per day is not the end of the world, its just sustained rainfall.

remember we are never more than 7 days of sun from a low rain warning

150mm in the Craingorms National Park, that's some serious rain. The River Dee flows out of there into Aberdeen on the coast, I imagine that's going to cause some significant disruption there.

Very heavy now in Cork

If this sustains, which it's likely to do then flooding is certain

Friday was 15 times wetter than today and some showers were forecast that day. Now dry weather is about to go. Google says rain in 4 minutes. Bye dry.

Icon 12z has rolled out and the UKMO 12z came out about an hour ago and both would indicate orange level warnings for Wicklow for tomorrow. GFS 06z had similar numbers so lets see if the 12z has an upgrade or downgrade in the next 20 minutes or so

Where is all the rain?! 😂

Location - Waterford

It’s fascinating in these setups

I'd say the flooding in Cork will be much worse at high tide than the council are expecting. Back roads are badly flooding now with water pouring off fields etc. Interesting evening