Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Ukraine never had to win militarily outright and it always seemed unlikely unless there was a massive influx of western gear. But the fact they've hammered Russia as badly as they have is a win that cannot be over-stated. Even before western equipment arrived in significant quantities.

Right now it's a conventional war, and Russian economy is taking a battering, as well as the horrendous military losses. They're a million miles from defeating Ukraine in said conventional war, and even if they ever got there (an absolutely monumental if at this stage) then they would still face the gruelling guerrilla phase.

Ukraine has to not lose. Russia has to win, not in the overrun the country sense, but achieve some sort of tremendous battlefield victory that breaks the back of the AFU.

Even if Russia were to gain a military advantage in this conventional stage (possible), and even if they were capable of slowing inching forward (somewhat possible), and even if they were capable of delivering a fatal blow to AFU (highly unlikely), they would still face a nightmare of pacification.

This all with the fact that Russia doesn't have an economy and industry capable of supporting a costly, large in scale ongoing war. Yes it can afford to divert funds to the military in a way that wouldn't be possible in any western European nation, but there is certainly a limit to what they can do.

Look what happened the USSR in Afghanistan. It gets mentioned a lot but there's a reason why. Some wars are just unwinnable, sometimes in the short term, sometimes the long term - the Ukraine war is literally both at once, it's the absolute worst case scenario arising from February 2022.

So sure they can keep going, but to be honest at this stage it looks like Putin is pulling a Hitler and completely hedging his bets on a fallout among Ukraines allies. Even then, if that were to happen, Ukraine isn't going to roll over.

Not sure where they got the idea of them getting the iron dome system, America was testing part of the Israeli system,but nobody outside of Israel actually has or operates the iron dome which is made up of multiple weapons and radar arrays the Israelis wont active it unless there is a severe threat to life in Israel as it's hugely expensive to operate

The Red Army was able to fight its way from Moscow to Magdeburg, the Russian Army have difficulty taking a medium sized field a few miles from the Russian border, I know you think you're insulting them but you're not, you're doing the exact opposite, which is just silly (unless you're Russian).

The Ukrainians have just kicked the Russian navy out of the western Black sea, they've gained artilery dominance on the battlefield in an artilery dominated war, they're destroying Russian command and control centers and have the Russians frenziedly moving reserves all over the place, as one retired US general stated, the Ukrainian General Staff are running rings around the Russians.

The battles going on at the moment around Verbove and Novoprokopivka are not just battles for those vilages, that's the battle for southern Ukraine. Looking at lines on a map is not the best way to judge how this war is developing, wars are not won just by gaining territory, but by destroying your enemy's ability fight effectively, and Ukraine are slowly degrading the Russians ability.

You have to stand back and look at things holistically, only then can you judge how things are really going, and it's far from heading for a stalemate.

I would imagine many of these that stay would also be older residents ,who would rather risk dying in their homes than move to a foreign country.

Plus what's happening in Israel now they definitely won't be selling any irom dome systems as they will probably want more to protect Israel. Things like this plays into Russia's hands as well because the world gets distracted by other events elsewhere, that events elsewhere might dictate where military hardware/supplies/money that should go to Ukraine might having to go to other countries. Putin more of less has his eggs in the 1 basket which is Ukraine but America and the western countries have a lot more places where they would help out other then Ukraine if the need arises and that ends up spreading money to other places that might of ended up going to Ukraine. That's what I really worry about in this conflict the longer it goes on the more things that might happen that America etc. That their attention and money might have to go there and not to Ukraine while Russia just has to worry about Ukraine.

putin just lost the area of Azerbaijan that his troops were trying to occupy so it is becoming very evident that him putting all his eggs in one basket and getting his military decimated in Ukraine is coming home to roost and there are many other countries that could use the war in Ukraine as a help in seeking freedom from moskow. The russian federation could easily start to fall apart if the losses putin is experiencing in Ukraine continue and even more so since the further reaches of the federation are the ones getting fed into the meat grinder more than the wealthier urban areas of moskow and st. petersburg. I think it is much more likely that the rusiian federation has a civil war than all of Ukraine's supporters suddenly reverse all they have said about committing to Ukraine for the long term and loose interest no mater how much putin's propaganda machine would like to make people think this.

The west will never move to a war time economy footing. That in itself could prove to be a propaganda victory to Putin in the long run as public support for Ukraine would likely erode significantly once the economic consequences of such a move began to take effect . Also I believe the current strategy in the west is a slow bleed of Russia that forces Putin to eventually make another goodwill gesture that involves Russian troops going home . This has two advantages in their thinking, it means Russia can not be a threat to American interest for years to come. It also avoid the opening of a pandora's box if a sudden and total defeat were imposed on Russia.

i have no evidence myself just going by what Peter zeihan here says and it does sound plausible

https://youtu.be/kH5e4e8J9Pk?si=c8rHCpP9v6lj_mBa

Sure Putin is bypassing at least some of the oil /gas sanctions, but he's earning far less all the same. All the now defunct pipelines were headed to the west, and it will take at least several years to re-orientate them to India, China etc. So Oil / Gas has to be shipped / trucked out. An expensive and very problematic business which further reduces profit margins, and this on top of selling at reduced prices to start with in order to actually sell it. So now Putin has his own oil crisis,,,so much oil was being diverted for sale abroad ( better prices that selling at home) that the Russian economy itself is being hit as there are serious shortages for home use, Transport, Farming, Industry and with winter looming, heating, etc. that Putin had to ban all overseas oil / gas sales which means that even if the ban is only temporary, his cash cow for the war in Ukraine is being interrupted. He is on a financial see-saw money-wise and all is not well in the former workers paradise.

Another war means adding to the current shortage of certain types of weapons and munitions especially if this goes on longer than a few days or weeks ,

Already seeing Israeli vehicles been taken out with drones similar to the way Ukrainians have attacked Russian vehicles

It is horrible, but not sure it makes much difference to Ukraine (other than way what is happening may distract countries that support them - Israel is not really one [beyond the rhetorical]). As far as I know (stand to be corrected?) Israel does less for Ukraine than a country like Switzerland, which has come in for vicious abuse on this thread. Net, they aid Russia by providing a safe harbour for oligarchs and their money since the European/US sanctions.

Ukraine will win and liberate every square cm of its territory.

Yeah wasn't expecting this when I woke up. This all plays to Russia as America might have to supply Israel with military equipment that otherwise might of went to Ukraine. All these things take away from Ukraine.

And the parts of Georgia, Moldova it is involved in . It’s also watching its back re China. And all of its international interests that it is involved in re the cyber area, spying submarines, little green men in clothes other than green, etc, etc,

so my point is that Ru has more on its plate than its special operation mission in Ukr

Surely they can "handle" it themselves without calling on extra US help (?) after so many billion USD military aid every year for as long as I have lived? The Israeli weapons industry seems to have plenty of spare products knocking about to go into the world playing geopolitics power games arming likes of Azerbaijan to the teeth etc.