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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,568 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    When I was a young lad, I asked my father who won world war 1. After a couple of glasses of wine, my father looked me dead in the eye and said "there are no winners in war son". This was great philosophical advice which has stuck with me to this day. It was of no real assistance with my homework, for which the teacher wanted the answer of "not Germany".

    As this war goes on, and Russian propagandists keep telling us that Ukraine can't win so why try etc, I'm reminded of his sagely words. In reality, Ukraine and Russia are both losing this war. Both have suffered massive damage in terms of lives, their eocnomies and, in the case of Russia, huge reputational loss. On a global scale, it is also costing Ukraine's supporter nations a large amount of money, it is causing havoc for food supply to Africa, there is political instability in the caucuses and in other former Soviet States, and China is finding the renewed attention in defending smaller nations against their larger aggressor neighbours to be unwelcome, to say the least.

    Fico being elected is not going to stop funding to Ukraine. I don't pretend to understand the wrangling in the US Congress. However, from what I understand, it is very unlikely to end in the US agreeing to cut all support for Ukraine. A deal will be done. It always is.

    It is important to remember that Ukraine are a sovereign nation and they make their own mind up on these things. It is not, as Russian propaganda would have it, a situation where they will fold if their support runs out. As far as I can tell, Ukraine is going to keep fighting until, essentially, they cannot fight anymore. Putin isn't going to back down - maybe. But Zelensky isn't going to back down either. Even if Putin never backs down, it doesn't necessarily equate into Russia conquering all of Ukraine. If Putin isn't going to back down, they are going to become bogged down in Ukraine for years to come. That isn't useful for his geopolitical aspirations.

    Lets cut through some of the noise in relation to US and EU support for Ukraine. Lets not get into the debate of is it high minded defence of democracy or is it a proxy war by the US or any of that stuff. If you were a snub nosed military adviser to NATO, who is tasked with only one job, and that is to make NATO ready for a potential war with Russia what would your advice be? I suppose there are a lot of things to be done, like increase munitions production, focus on cheaper but more easily made weaponry, maybe we should get back into static defences and Maginot Line style defensive structures etc etc.

    But by far and away, the single best recommendation you can give to your clients i.e. the NATO Member States, is that you should keep funding Ukraine. So long as Russia are fighting Ukraine, they aren't going to fight anyone else. The more men and materiel that the Russians lose, the harder it will be for them to invade a NATO country. The more of Ukraine that Russia has to hold and maintain through force of arms, the greater the rebuilding cost. But if Russia manage to absorb Ukraine or a significant portion of Ukraine, it will strengthen their hand and make them want to take a bite out of another country, probably one in Eastern Europe.

    So if you don't want to be invaded and annexed by Russia, you have to help Ukraine now.

    On a more geopolitical level, the Republicans are preventing a very superificial brexitey type argument. Instead of spending X on Ukraine we could spend it on Y. There is no serious debate on this because it is, in reality, a bit of rhetoric used by a minority of one party to secure non specific concessions at budget time. If there was a real debate on it, the point would be made that if the US wants to maintain its preeminent position in the world, they have to support Ukraine against Russia. If they don't, they could lose their position. No one in the Republican party, and especially the MAGA end of it, want America to lose its privileged position as first amongst nations. Even Donald Trump isn't advocating for a mindless defunding of Ukraine. Indeed, he was responsible for arming them to a significant degree during 2016-2020 giving them billions in military and other aid, and he has threatened at times to increase aid to Ukraine if Russia don't enter a peace deal with them.

    So yes, the future does look grim. There will be no winners. We will all be a lot poorer and less secure. But Ukraine are not going to be abandoned by the rest of the world, nor are Ukraine anywhere near giving up. Putin too may not give up, but no one is expecting him to. Instead, people are expecting the Russian army or elites to give up on Putin.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,742 ✭✭✭saabsaab




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 275 ✭✭Seanmadradubh


    Exactly this.

    Russia didn't stop fighting for Bakhmut last winter, Soledar fell to them in January. Someone would have to come up with a very good reason why the Russians can continue fighting and make gains during the winter but Ukraine can't in order to be taken seriously.

    Pausing would be not just a tactical, but a strategic mistake of monumental proportions for Ukraine, and result in many needless casualties over the long term.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 275 ✭✭Seanmadradubh


    You are correct that being morally in the right dosen't guarantee victory, but fighting for your home (which is what the poster mentioned) has nothing to do with morality, but it is about survival and people fighting for their very survival will not go down easily, this is a definite advantage Ukraine has in this fight.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,248 ✭✭✭amandstu


    Let's not forget that Progozhy moment.

    How solid was Putin's support then?

    How long will it last now before something else arises to test it?

    To be honest ,I was one of those who was happy enough when Putin first gained power as he looked like an intelligent man (not a good man but an intelligent one) who could buy time for Russia to adapt to the new dispensation after the Cold War.

    His actions since then were understandable, if wretchedly disappointing and I sympathise with Russia wanting to be seen as an equal to the US (which they are not btw by any criteria).

    If they want to follow the path of antagonism towards the West that is also OK

    But they have no right to inflict their prejudices on their neighbours by unleashing the dogs of war on them.

    They have made a fatal misstep in their invasion of Ukraine and our response should be ,firstly to defend Ukraine and secondly to have a close mind on the consequences for Russia itself as it tears itself apart in the near future ,I fear (and also,secretly welcome ,unfruitful as that outcome will surely be)



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 805 ✭✭✭Relax brah


    Credit where it’s due the brits are not in any way intimidated by Putin. Defence minister saying they are considering going into Ukraine is a ballsy statement which could prevent a lot war in Europe.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    They had no choice but to fight for bakmuth ,if they didn't slow down or stop the Russians they would have lost a lot more than an obliterated town ,but it cost them dearly in manpower at the time



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    They are talking about training Ukrainians forces something they have been doing since 2014 ,there no putting boots on the ground to fight,and even at that they wouldn't be the only foreign military in Ukraine, there is foreign advisors on the ground,

    It could be sign sending 20,000 men to the UK for 3 months isn't the most logistically sound plan when you can train similar numbers inside of Ukraine and deploy where and when needed



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,388 ✭✭✭✭Say my name


    This is gone over my head.

    Could someone explain what's the older song and tune?

    And also a translation of what the girl is singing of Putin.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,104 ✭✭✭✭briany


    The great irony would be that although Russia would grumble and growl bitterly about these British forces being there, the British forces would have every right to be there given they've actually been invited.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,388 ✭✭✭✭Say my name


    From 7 years ago.

    Putin. Put out.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Interviews from individuals at last nights concert celebrating the new territories in Russia.





  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,248 ✭✭✭amandstu




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,871 ✭✭✭.Donegal.


    He’s happy to take billions from the Germans every year though. Bit of a mouth the polish prime minister and so much for “western” solidarity. Moscow will be happy with him.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,446 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    I don't think Ukraine care too much, they just want weapons and support.

    I don't see Germany making any statements about withholding arms delivery to Ukraine.

    I don't see Germany kicking back about Ukrainian grain entering the EU.

    We are long past the days of 5000 helmets. Germany has upped their game wrt arms deliveries to Ukraine. The fact he's stating that speaks volumes.

    Seems like Poland are afraid Ukraine will be more German leaning than Polish leaning? It's a silly thing, I'm sure Ukraine would lean to anyone for arms to help defend itself. If German defense companies are willing to operate factories within Ukraine, then of course Ukraine should jump on that.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    But at the same time ukraine are happy to take Billions from Poland and then threaten them for trying to protect polish agriculture sectors,so far it's only one German company rhemimenthal looking to set up in Ukraine, which makes sense especially if they are primarily only going to be repairing damaged German vehicles, cheaper than the Germans having to pick up damaged vehicles in Ukraine and transporting them to Germany and back to Ukraine again,and there's likely substantial financial rewards for rhemimenthal too ,so not so charitable, from what I can gather it's several other countries footing the bill too ,

    It's not a simple as oh Germany companies are queuing up to get into Ukraine



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    That one person is right about one thing: Putin is holding it all together so good luck to that flippant twit when Putin croaks and it all goes to shít again

    Though does speak to a miserable, fatalistic perspective that Russians assume it'll all fall apart anyway and enjoy it while it lasts. Be thankful to the great leader for bestowing health and prosperity upon you, lol.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 275 ✭✭Seanmadradubh


    Explain the following.

    How Russians were able to continue attacking over the winter but Ukraine will be unable to do so.

    What will stop Ukraine continuing to use small groups of infantry as they are currently.

    Why it would be a good thing for Ukraine to pause. (your words)

    Not once have you even attempted to refute any of the reasons given why it would be a mistake for Ukraine to pause, the biggest being, giving Russians a chance to strengthen their defences, also giving the newly mobilised extra training time instead of rushing them to the front, in general just giving the Russians a breather, how would this help Ukraine.

    Modern warfare does not have to stop in winter, modern armys put in a lot of effort training for all climatic conditions. In the days when armys relied on horses the availability of fodder was what determined the "fighting season", I don't think Ukraine are relying on horses for their logistical train today.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    A22@Seanmadradubh

    Explain the following.

    How Russians were able to continue attacking over the winter but Ukraine will be unable to do so.

    What will stop Ukraine continuing to use small groups of infantry as they are currently.

    The Russians won't be attacking they are Defending dug in positions ,and the Ukrainian have been using the small groups of infantry since this started, backed up by a small number of vehicles to mitigate losses , rather than commit to large scale full front assualts .....

    Western experts say very much the same thing , thing's will slow down and Become static it won't come to a full stop but it will slow down,

    Nothing to argue here at all



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 275 ✭✭Seanmadradubh


    You said things will come to a crawl or stop, involving digging in and fortifying, and that it "makes sense" and could even be a "good thing".

    "winter brings combat to a very slow crawl or stops all together, digging and fortification makes sense until the weather improves"

    "There will be some ground taken but I reckon it will become pretty static for the next while, which might actually be a good thing,"

    My points are as follows. There is no reason for modern armys to pause in winter and allowing Russians time to bolster their defences and dig in would be a very costly mistake (one I do not believe the Ukrainian High Command would make) . Quite simple really.

    Western "experts" also said Ukraine woulden't stand a chance in a war with Russia, look how that turned out, be carefull who you listen to.

    By the way, do you actually read the posts you are replying to, I asked you to explain how Russia was able to continue attacking over last winter (Bakhmut, Soledar) but Ukraine will be unable to do so this winter.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,335 ✭✭✭RGARDINR


    Long time since I saw Russia do anything successful. Hopefully Ukraine can counter this soon.

    Screenshot_20231002_084547_com.android.chrome.jpg




  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators Posts: 53,403 CMod ✭✭✭✭Retr0gamer


    Noel reports backed those counterattacks up. Depends on how successful they are. It looked more like a grey area than actual real gains and could fizzle out to nothing like the last few counterattacks.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,400 ✭✭✭Field east


    One gets the impression from some posts here that once the winter sets in that Ukr’s war effort will get ‘stuck in the mud’ and there comes to a halt until the place dries out in the spring - an unbelievable thought. Once bullets , missiles, bombs via bombers drones are released /fired, MUCK has nothing to do with their flight path , trajectory , accuracy and distance travelled. So UKr can do a LOT OF DAMAGE to Russian supply routes, arms depots, soldier concentrations, infrastructural damage to fortifications, etc, etc,etc.

    and while all of the above is going on the Russians will be kept busy repairing, reconstructing damaged property but more particularly making efforts to try and protect themselves. Thus having less if any time to lay more mines, etc.

    I would suspect that Ukr collaborators/special forces can continue to work behind the frontlines - muck or no muck.

    the Russian side is a kind of a static entity while it is in a defending mode -waiting for the ‘enemy. It is also organised in big numbers - an easier target than small numbers. Whereas the UKr army is more mobile and moves around in smaller numbers.

    most of Russia’s war needs are moved by rail - a sitting duck in the long term. If the artelliary misses the train it probably will blow up the track. most of UKr artelliary is moved in smaller lots and easier to discuise

    So, The uUkr army is not ‘ stuck’ for something to do during the winter. And as it is on home soil and know the area better it is in a better position to use the local knowledge to its advantage



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Economics101


    People seem to forget that there is a bitter and closely fought general election in Poland next week. I'm sure. given 20th century history, that playing the "German Card" is a sad but inevitable psrt of Polich electoral politics. So maybe we should all calm down a little for a week or so.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,709 ✭✭✭Rawr


    The Russian built those trench systems which gives them a bit of a tactical edge within them. The AFU have to probe through them blindly with very limited info gathered from satellite surveys, which will not cover any tunnels they’ve built. This is going to be one of those hard-slogg elements of the fighting that will share chilling parallells with WWI trench warfare.

    Thin passages with no cover, and countless hidden warrens where Russians can hide & jump out at the AFU. It will not be an easy fight.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    No reason for modern armies to pause in winter but more than likely that's exactly what happens in any conflict as documented by many failed military offensives during winter,

    Western experts said Ukraine wouldn't stand a chance against Ukraine I always said with the right resources they could do a lot of damage to Russia and Putin,

    I'm careful about using sources, the odd bogey has slipped through over the last near two years,but usually pretty spot on



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    @Field east One gets the impression from some posts here that once the winter sets in that Ukr’s war effort will get ‘stuck in the mud’ and there comes to a halt until the place dries out in the spring - an unbelievable thought.

    Of course it's going to slow ,this is what happens in winter logistics and transport becomes extremely difficult,did you not watch any of the footage from the previous winters , it's not an unbelievable thought it's fact what actually happens it becomes an artillery duel until they can't get vehicles on to firmer ground to fight,this is what happens you might not like but this is what they are dealing with,there was a reason why the spring offensive started so late ,

    Simple question why didn't the counter offensive not begin in winter,



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,483 ✭✭✭zv2


    For winter Ukraine will have an artillery advantage.

    It looks like history is starting up again.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,901 ✭✭✭yagan


    Knowing that Russia has always relied on General Winter I'm sure there's been strategizing about how to take advantage of that behaviour.



This discussion has been closed.
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