Storm Agnes Wed 27 Sept 2023.

amandstu · 26-09-2023 10:36PM

Is a category 3 storm a hurricane?

The same as a category 3 hurricane?

26-09-2023 10:36PM

If anyone wants to watch a 4hr miniseries on Cyclone Tracy, 1974, Darwin. This is good. The updates on wind speed scary. Made in 1986, look out for a young Sally, Home and Away.

It was shown over 2 nights on RTE in August 1988. I was 12 and it was a bit scary.

https://youtu.be/9OtlYjaxgC8?si=2IXDeEm9RK4EAyYp

JanuarySnowstor · 26-09-2023 10:36PM

18z gfs now rolling.

First frame, 6hrs already much deeper than the 12z!! Basically a hurricane at this stage

Meteorite58 · 26-09-2023 10:36PM

I'm thinking back of all the trees felled around Dublin / Leinster during Storm Betty with winds coming in from the SE and from what I remember wind speeds did not get over 100km/h...Tomorrow could bring a huge amount of trees and branches down being the time of year. Extreme caution, has all the hallmarks of being a damaging storm. I think people anywhere in coastal areas in the SW, S, SE, E should treat it as a Red warning and inland at any bit of height or near trees or poorly maintained sheds should treat it as a red warning. This has the potential of reaching far inland to places that would normally not get strong winds and initially from a SE, S then SW direction.

Max wind speeds Storm Betty, a kitten in comparison to Storm Agnes.

SleetAndSnow · 26-09-2023 10:37PM

I believe the waters around us are still far too cold to sustain a cat 3 hurricane if it were.to happen. I believe when Opehlia was about 300km or so off shore it was cat 1 but quickly dropped back once it got more over our cooler waters.

munsterlegend · 26-09-2023 10:37PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121161516#Comment_121161516

It will weaken a lot before it hits land here. If a Cat3 force winds was hitting Ireland we'd definitely be in red warnings. Will still be quite strong when it hits here but probably 50-70mph range nothing like 110mph.

aidanodr · 26-09-2023 10:38PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121161498#Comment_121161498

This is the 110MPH / C3 tweet from Joint Cyclone Center

https://twitter.com/JointCyclone/status/1706777131701702894

Odelay · 26-09-2023 10:38PM

mmm

Dazler97 · 26-09-2023 10:38PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121161339#Comment_121161339

That's what I was thinking as well and also said to myself that last minute red warnings be issued just like Darwin

lulublue22 · 26-09-2023 10:40PM

So agnes will lose power fairly quickly once she hits colder water ? or is it that the worse will be off shore and not reach inland or a mix of both - just interested and trying to increase my limited knowledge of weather events more than anything else.

Widdensushi · 26-09-2023 10:41PM

100 km sw of Ireland the strongest winds start to ease rapidly,the worst of the winds all pass south of the country currently, stronger winds landing a bit further east than forecasted earlier

Larbre34 · 26-09-2023 10:44PM

There'll be much coffee flowing in Glasnevin tonight.

M.T. Cranium · 26-09-2023 10:46PM

Joint Cyclone Center is an official agency of US govt weather services, but category 3 cyclone is on a different scale than hurricane categories, probably corresponds to high end cat-1 or lower cat-2 hurricane, and you could also question what the 110 is based on, satellite analysis likely, as no ship reports or buoys near Agnes at present. Recall Ophelia was at cat-2 intensity shortly before landfall in Ireland but was closer to cat-1 at landfall.

pad199207 · 26-09-2023 10:47PM

GFS

Dazler97 · 26-09-2023 10:47PM

We have our own wind categorys (Ireland and the UK) so Agnes is easily category 4 (90mph) gusts

took me ages to find this

adocholiday · 26-09-2023 10:49PM

Is it just me being hopeful or is GFS way less severe looking? There seems to be quite a spread in the 18z runs

aisling86 · 26-09-2023 10:49PM

I believe the joint cyclone centre on Twitter/X is not what it leads one to believe it is. I think it’s an amateur weather enthusiast who bagged a great social media handle. The national hurricane centre is the official one in the US.

JanuarySnowstor · 26-09-2023 10:49PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121161570#Comment_121161570

What you think now MT? Should Met Eireann go red for Southwest or is orange about right?

26-09-2023 10:50PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121161562#Comment_121161562

For some reason I thought of the graveyard first rather than Met E. I was saying that joke about dead people and coffee went right over my head🤣

typhoony · 26-09-2023 10:51PM

Met Eireann going over the top with this one, latest GFS has winds not as bad, barely an orange alert for the coastal South and South West, should be a yellow alert only

26-09-2023 10:52PM

The Christmas Eve and Stephen's Day storms of 1997 and 1998, respectively, had wind gusts over 100mph. When storms were storms.

amandstu · 26-09-2023 10:52PM

Well this is confusing .So many categories and number values.Do we have an expert to clear this up?

Storm,cyclone ,hurricane-what is is currently and what number -and what could it be on landfall?

TeaCup2 · 26-09-2023 10:52PM

I remember this too, I remeber the people in a bathroom holding on to a sink to escape the wind. It really was scary! 😬

aidanodr · 26-09-2023 10:53PM

Maybe this is where the 110MPH is coming from?

https://twitter.com/bbcweather/status/1706759202432258348

igCorcaigh · 26-09-2023 10:53PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121161456#Comment_121161456

I think that that Joint Cylone Center account has no real credibility.

pad199207 · 26-09-2023 10:53PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121161601#Comment_121161601

They won’t be touching that tonight. They are seeing widespread orange level gust conditions across southern counties and South Leinster on their models.

SleetAndSnow · 26-09-2023 10:55PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121161611#Comment_121161611

Correct, it's not an official account or anything as the name implies really. Misleading and unhelpful really, the account did similar with previous storms.